Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

   Valid 081700Z - 091200Z

   Much of the previous forecast remains largely on track. Mid-level
   clouds are present across the southern Rockies and are currently
   overspreading portions of the southern High Plains. These clouds are
   expected to limit surface heating/boundary-layer mixing to a degree.
   Nonetheless, at least low-end Elevated conditions are still expected
   across portions of the central/southern High Plains and southern
   Arizona/New Mexico as limited boundary-layer heating and downslope
   flow encourages patchy 20% RH amidst sustained winds over 15 mph by
   mid afternoon. 

   Farther east however, visible satellite indicates clear skies, with
   METAR observations indicating RH dropping to 35-40%. While the
   ambient low-level airmass is not quite as dry as yesterday,
   continued heating should promote enough boundary-layer mixing to
   support RH dropping to near 25% in spots. Given multiple hours of
   sustained 15-25 mph southwesterly surface winds and fuels receptive
   to fire spread, an Elevated area has been maintained.

   Lastly, with surface high pressure persisting across the eastern
   U.S., much of the southeast towards the Mid Atlantic are expected to
   see widespread 25-35% RH by afternoon peak heating. Fire weather
   highlights have been withheld given the lack of stronger winds.
   However, localized wildfire concerns exist given the low RH and
   presence of drying finer fuels.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   An active fire weather pattern will begin today and is expected to
   persist well into the middle of the work week. This will mainly be
   driven by persistent upper-level troughing over the West Coast with
   strong mid and upper-level west/southwesterly flow across the
   Southwest into the southern High Plains. Consequently, surface
   pressure falls over the inter-mountain West and along the lee of the
   Rockies will help augment regional surface pressure gradients and
   downslope flow. For today, areas of elevated fire weather conditions
   are expected, particularly for southeast AZ into the
   southern/central High Plains and eastern Kansas. 

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...
   The latest surface observations show winds already increasing to
   around 15 mph across the TX/OK Panhandles in response to the onset
   of lee troughing across eastern CO. This trend will continue through
   the day as upper-level flow increases over the Rockies (likely aided
   by an embedded shortwave impulse noted over southern CA). While
   modest moisture return is ongoing across the TX Panhandle, 15-25 mph
   downslope flow should allow 15-25% RH to overspread northeast NM
   into eastern CO and adjacent areas of the TX/OK Panhandles and KS.
   Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, and brief critical
   conditions are possible. Additionally, elevated conditions may
   extend as far north as northeast CO and southeast WY, but confidence
   in RH reductions diminishes this far north.

   ...Southwest...
   Dry conditions have been noted across much of AZ over the past few
   days with afternoon RH in the teens and low 20s. Minimal moisture
   return into the region will result in another day of dry conditions
   with similar RH reductions. A weak surface low, noted over central
   NV, will deepen as it moves to the northeast, resulting in
   strengthening surface winds up to 25 mph across northern AZ and
   southern UT. While elevated meteorological conditions are expected,
   fuels remain below critical thresholds for the majority of the
   region. To the south, fuels are more receptive and will support an
   elevated fire weather concern. Relative humidity values will likely
   fall into the low teens and single digits. However, this region will
   be on the periphery of the stronger mid-level flow and displaced
   from the tighter surface pressure gradient, suggesting that 15-20
   mph winds will be more common.

   ...Eastern Kansas...
   Another day of breezy conditions is expected across OK and KS due to
   lee troughing to the west with a persistent surface high to the
   east. While the strongest gradient winds will likely reside across
   central/western KS (where modest moisture advection is expected),
   sustained winds between 15-20 mph appear likely for eastern KS.
   Regional 00 UTC soundings reveal dry boundary layers with minimal
   moisture improvements upstream from eastern KS (across OK and TX).
   Observed relative humidity values were lower yesterday (Saturday)
   than forecast by most guidance, and a similar trend is possible
   today given a similar synoptic regime. With receptive fuels already
   in place, elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. 

   ...Southeast and the Carolinas...
   Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast for today with
   afternoon RH values falling well into the 20s, and possibly high
   teens, from central AL into the western Carolinas. A few locations
   have cured fuels that could support a wildfire threat, but surface
   high pressure will limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather
   concern.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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