Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   The previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Leitman.. 04/25/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A progressive upper pattern is forecast across the central and
   eastern CONUS today. One upper trough/low over the central Plains
   and Rockies early this morning will continue moving southeastward to
   the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. Another upper trough
   will develop southeastward from the Canadian Prairie provinces to
   the northern Plains. Upper ridging should remain over the western
   CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
   southeastward across the northern Plains in tandem with the upper
   trough. Dry/warm conditions will persist for parts of the Southwest
   and Great Basin this afternoon, but weak surface winds will preclude
   any elevated/critical concerns across these areas.

   ...Portions of Central WY...
   Updated fuel guidance for several fire-weather zones in central WY
   now indicates receptive fuels and the potential for large fire
   spread. An elevated area has therefore been introduced for a small
   portion of central WY where sustained southwesterly winds of 15-20
   mph appear likely to combine with RH values of 10-20% for a few
   hours this afternoon. Locally critical conditions may be realized
   where sustained winds can exceed 20 mph. However, this is not
   expected to occur on a widespread basis, and no critical area has
   been introduced at this time.

   ...Portions of the Northern Plains...
   The surface pressure gradient will strengthen slightly ahead of the
   cold front mentioned previously across parts of the northern Plains
   this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid-level winds should also
   support some increase in surface winds across this region. Consensus
   of short-term guidance indicates sustained southwesterly winds
   around 15-20 mph will likely occur ahead of the front across the
   northern Plains. Given little prospect for substantial low-level
   moisture return, RH values should lower into the 20-25% range for a
   few hours this afternoon, mainly across parts of ND into
   northwestern MN. A small elevated area has been introduced for a
   subset of this region where confidence is greatest in RH values
   falling below 25%. Fuels should also be drier across this area
   compared to locations farther south in ND/MN that received some
   precipitation yesterday.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The previous forecast remains on track and no changes are needed.

   ..Leitman.. 04/25/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale upper troughing with several embedded shortwave
   perturbations will remain over the central and eastern CONUS on Day
   2/Thursday. Upper ridging will persist over the western states as an
   upper low approaches the coast of northern CA and OR by late
   Thursday night. At the surface, a cold front will develop southward
   across the southern/central Plains through the day.

   A small spatial overlap of strong/gusty post-frontal northeasterly
   winds and marginally lowered RH values may occur across parts of
   east-central NM Thursday afternoon. However, RH values are not
   currently expected to fall below 20% due to cooler temperatures
   behind the front, precluding an elevated delineation. Warm/dry
   surface conditions will exist farther west across portions of the
   Southwest and Great Basin, but generally light winds should limit
   substantial fire-weather concerns.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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