Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020

   Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
   NEW MEXICO...

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Mid morning surface obs and satellite imagery show a stalled cold
   front draped across southeast CO into the OK/TX Panhandles. Because
   of the placement of this cold front and the stable air mass just to
   the north, the surface pressure response to an approaching mid-level
   trough axis will most likely occur across southern CO and across
   northern/northeast NM. This idea is supported by morning guidance
   and suggests that the stronger winds/better mixing will take place
   slightly north and west than previously forecast. Slight adjustments
   were made to both the elevated and critical risk areas to account
   for these trends.

   Localized areas of critical conditions are possible this afternoon
   from central to south central NM where downslope winds may cause
   enhanced areas of dry and windy conditions. However, low confidence
   in the duration and coverage of these conditions prevents a second
   critical area at this time.

   ..Moore/Cook.. 04/02/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will graze the central CONUS during the day,
   promoting the strengthening of a surface low and subsequent dry and
   breezy conditions supporting fire spread during the afternoon across
   the central and southern High Plains. Thereafter, a cold front will
   sweep across the area by evening, into the overnight hours, bringing
   about cooler conditions. Meanwhile, a mid-level trough and
   associated mature surface low will meander off of the East Coast,
   promoting dry and occasionally windy conditions across portions of
   the Mid Atlantic Seaboard, with dry conditions persisting across
   portions of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   By afternoon, diurnal mixing of the boundary layer and downslope
   flow will contribute to westerly surface winds sustained in the
   15-25 mph range and widespread 15-20% RH across much of New Mexico
   into western Texas, far southeast Colorado, and the western Oklahoma
   Panhandle. A broad elevated has been maintained to address this
   scenario across the southern High Plains, with a critical area where
   the greatest confidence exists in 20+ mph surface winds overlapping
   with 15% RH for several hours.

   ...East Coast...
   Breezy northwesterly flow will pivot around the intense offshore
   surface low, with surface wind speeds sustaining the in the 15-20
   mph range across the Mid Atlantic, with weaker values (5-15 mph)
   expected across the Carolina Piedmont region. Model guidance depicts
   RH dropping to 35% in some locales, that combined with the
   aforementioned winds, would support very modest potential for
   localized fire starts. Recent rainfall, limiting fuel receptiveness,
   is the primary inhibiting factor for a more robust wildfire threat
   and subsequent need for elevated/critical delineations. Across the
   Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southeast, which has seen less
   rain within the past month or so compared to places farther north,
   the main limiting factor would be a light and variable wind field.
   As such, no highlights have been introduced, though the dry
   conditions and lack of rainfall will assist in curing fuels further
   across the East Coast.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...Carolina Piedmont...
   While the overall forecast remains on track per recent guidance, new
   ensemble probabilities suggest that winds up to 15 mph may
   overspread RH values between 25-30% further to the southeast of the
   previous elevated area. A few areas across central NC may
   periodically reach critical conditions on Friday afternoon where
   deeper mixing and stronger winds (gusting to 25-30 mph at times) are
   possible.

   ..Moore/Cook.. 04/02/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will lift northward towards the northern Plains
   during Day 2/Friday, with surface high pressure and associated
   cooler air settling across the central and southern Plains. Across
   the East Coast, residual forcing aloft with a departing mid-level
   trough will overlap a northwesterly surface flow field, promoting
   dry and breezy conditions, particularly across portions of the
   Carolina Piedmont. Drying fuels due to lack of recent rainfall will
   promote modest wildfire-growth potential.

   ...Carolina Piedmont...
   Modest downward momentum transport, combined with gradient flow
   associated with a mature surface low hovering over the western
   Atlantic, will promote 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface
   winds amidst 30-40% RH across the Carolina Piedmont Friday
   afternoon. Portions of central North Carolina into far southern
   Virginia will most likely see 15 mph winds overlapping 30% RH for at
   least a few hours by afternoon peak heating, collocated with a
   minimum in recent precipitation accumulations, necessitating an
   elevated delineation. Farther south into South Carolina, Georgia,
   and the Florida Peninsula, 30-50% RH will also be common by
   afternoon, but with mainly light and variable winds. Given that
   conditions will likely only support localized fire starts across the
   aforementioned parts of the Southeast, an elevated area does not
   currently seem warranted.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A dry airmass will remain in place across much of the southwest
   CONUS into the southern High Plains, with 15-25% RH becoming common
   by mid to late afternoon. Wind fields are expected to be overall
   calmer compared to previous days, with perhaps patchy areas of 15
   mph winds occurring over a few locales. Given the localized nature
   of any stronger flow, elevated areas have been withheld.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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