Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Mon, 27-Jun-2022 11:55pm MDT

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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... With another day of scattered thunderstorms expected across the Great Basin and Western Slope, lightning will remain possible over patchy receptive fuels intermixed with much wetter areas. Area gauges have shown steady accumulation over the last several days, with a significant gradient in precipitation within the higher terrain. Model soundings continue to show profiles marginally supportive of isolated dry strikes with PWATs ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 inches, and mixed-layer LCLs of 6-9k feet AGL. Given scattered storm coverage across much of AZ and CO, confidence on the coverage of drier storms (especially south and east) is low. However, the coverage of lightning is likely sufficient to support a risk for wet/dry flashes within patchy receptive fuels. Areas of AZ and CO were removed from the IsoDryT area to better capture the greatest risk for more Isolated dry lightning. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid, see below for additional information. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will dominate the interior West as a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Upper forcing associated with the approaching trough will encourage dry and windy conditions over and to the lee of the southern Cascades/northern Sierra, with Elevated highlights introduced given the presence of modestly dry fuels. Mid-level moisture will meander over the eastern Great Basin into the Four Corners, with isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development expected with the onset of diurnal heating. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been issued since thunderstorms (albeit slow moving and occasionally wet) should traverse fuel beds that are critically dry on a spotty basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
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