Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Sat, 20-Oct-2018 7:30pm MDT

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Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook	Weather Advisories and Warnings National Wildland Fire Activity Map

Day 1 fire weather outlook and map Day 2 fire weather outlook and map
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The forecast largely remains on track. Near-critical to critical pressure gradients have been observed across the elevated delineation within the past 1-2 hours, and are expected to continue into at least the late morning/early afternoon hours. With sustained offshore winds likely to exceed 15 mph in terrain favoring regions within the elevated area in the next few hours, no contractions have been made to the elevated delineation. Latest high resolution model guidance suggests that 15 mph sustained offshore winds along with near-critical RH may also be realized by mid to late afternoon across portions of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. These surface conditions, in conjunction with marginally receptive fuels for fire spread, are associated with downslope flow along the Santa Ynez Mountains, where an expansion of the elevated area was made. ..Squitieri.. 10/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns through the D1/Sat forecast period will revolve around a strong offshore pressure gradient across southern California. A strong anticyclone over the Plains and central Rockies will gradually migrate eastward through the day, resulting in a weakening of the offshore gradient with time. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across coastal ranges of southern California, with a weakening trend in surface wind speeds through the afternoon and evening. ...Southern California... 10-20 mph northeasterly surface winds will persist through the morning hours in response to the aforementioned pressure gradient, with local terrain enhancements resulting in locally stronger wind gusts. Fuels also remain dry, and surface RH will flirt with critical (15%) thresholds throughout the day. An elevated delineation remains in place, although the greatest fire weather risk will exist during the morning and gradually decrease throughout the day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, with no changes made to the forecast. ..Squitieri.. 10/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... The strong offshore pressure gradient responsible for fire weather across southern California on D1/Saturday will continue to weaken during the D2/Sunday period as a strong anticyclone across the central U.S. migrates southeastward toward the Deep South and southern Appalachians. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may persist early across coastal southern California, although surface flow will continue to weaken and remain below elevated thresholds throughout the day. Elsewhere, relatively cool/unsettled conditions and unfavorable fuel states preclude any fire weather highlights for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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