Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Persistent long-wave troughing along the western tier of the CONUS
   and ridging across the central and southern Plains will continue to
   promote enhanced mid-level flow aloft from California through
   Montana this afternoon.  Some of this flow will occur over a
   continued low-level airmass over the Great Basin, with vertical
   mixing processes promoting elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions during peak heating hours.  A few thunderstorms are also
   expected in Oregon and New Mexico.

   ...Western Nevada eastward through the Four Corners Region...
   Vertical mixing processes beneath stronger flow aloft and the
   presence of a surface trough across the region will result in
   several corridors of 20+ mph surface winds during peak heating
   hours.  RH values will also fall well below critical thresholds and
   possibly reach single digits in northern Arizona and vicinity. 
   These atmospheric conditions are consistent with critical fire
   weather, though fuels/ERCs suggest that large-fire potential will
   not be very high except for on a localized basis.  Thus, the
   elevated fire weather delineation remains in place and accounts for
   locally critical conditions where fuels are dry.  

   ...Oregon...
   The proximity of the mid-level trough, mid-level jet axis, and
   surface heating beneath relatively cool temperatures aloft will
   continue to support thunderstorm potential especially during the
   overnight hours - though isolated activity may also occur during the
   morning and overnight.  Shear/kinematic profiles support appreciable
   storm motions (around 25 knots), although wetting thunderstorm cores
   may also be realized.  Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible
   on the periphery of the thunderstorm cores along with gusty and
   erratic winds.

   ...New Mexico...
   During the afternoon, surface heating and deeply mixed
   boundary-layer profiles beneath weak mid-level buoyancy will foster
   thunderstorm development during the afternoon and early evening. 
   Slow storm motions will support some wetting precip potential with
   storms, although dry sub-cloud conditions will support evaporation
   and the potential for gusty winds near convection.  Isolated dry
   lightning strikes are possible with this activity.

   ..Cook.. 06/27/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0103 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Although the Pacific Northwest mid-level low is expected to slowly
   weaken on D2/Fri, a similar fire-weather scenario will be in place
   across the West as enhanced mid-level flow overspreads portions of
   the western Great Basin.  A surface trough will also remain in place
   from western Utah southward through the Lower Colorado River Valley.
   A few thunderstorms are also expected across the southern Rockies.

   ...Southern Nevada eastward through the Four Corners Region...
   Widespread areas of 20-25 mph southwesterly surface flow are
   expected to develop once again across the region in response to
   surface troughing and vertical mixing processes.  RH values will
   also fall below critical thresholds - perhaps as low as 5% in
   southern Nevada and vicinity.  Again, fuels/ERCs will likely be
   sub-critical except for on a localized basis, with windiest
   conditions displaced from the driest fuels.  As a result, an
   elevated delineation remains in place to account for locally
   critical fire weather conditions where fuels support large-fire
   potential.

   ...New Mexico and east-central Arizona...
   High-based convection will also likely develop across the region
   during peak-heating hours as weak mid-level buoyancy develops atop a
   well-mixed boundary layer.  Though storms will be slow-moving, the
   dry boundary layer will promote evaporation of precipitation beneath
   thunderstorm cores, possibly supporting isolated dry lightning
   strikes and gusty, erratic surface winds near downdrafts.  Most
   convection should weaken overnight with the loss of surface heating
   and stabilization.

   ..Cook.. 06/27/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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