Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Cohen.. 06/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing currently in place over much of the central and
   eastern CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day while
   gradually shifting eastward. Several shortwave troughs will progress
   through its base, the strongest of which is now moving into the
   upper Midwest and is expected to be over the upper Great Lakes by
   12Z Sunday. Farther west, upper ridging currently extending from the
   Southwest northwestward into the northeast Pacific Ocean will
   gradually shift eastward in response to the eastward shift of the
   upper trough. At the surface, ridging will build across the Plains
   while a cold front moves slowly across the southern Plains and
   Southeast.

   ...Mountains and Eastern Foothills of Southern CA...
   Mid-level moisture is expected to move around western periphery of
   the upper ridge centered near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection.
   This mid-level moisture may support isolated thunderstorm
   development during the afternoon, especially over the higher
   terrain. A very warm and deeply mixed boundary layer will support
   high cloud bases and sub-cloud evaporation of any precipitation that
   does form, resulting in a threat for dry thunderstorms. Threat for
   dry thunderstorms coupled with at least modestly dry fuels across
   the region merits the introduction of an isolated dry thunderstorm
   threat area with this forecast.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Cohen.. 06/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper ridging which has persisted across the western CONUS for the
   last week is expected to begin breaking down on Sunday as a
   shortwave trough approaches its northern periphery late Sunday
   evening/early Monday morning. Increasing mid-level moisture and
   forcing for ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development
   across northern CA and central OR. Some of these thunderstorms may
   be dry (discussed in more detail below). Central/eastern CONUS
   troughing will remain largely in place throughout the day before
   becoming a bit more progressive late in the period in response to
   the aforementioned shortwave trough. At the surface, ridging over
   the Plains will persist while expanding eastward into the MS valley.
   A cold front extending from central TX eastward across the Southeast
   states will become increasingly diffuse.

   ...Northern CA/Central OR...
   Model guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will
   approach the northern CA coast late Sunday night/early Monday
   morning with a subtle lead disturbance moving through the region
   Sunday afternoon. Increased mid-level moisture associated with the
   approaching system will result in modest instability and the
   potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the higher
   terrain. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer and precipitable
   water values around 0.75", most of these storms will produce little
   to no precipitation at the surface. While fuels are not overly dry,
   above-average ERCs and below-average 100-hr dead fuel moisture have
   been observed across the region, suggesting fuels are marginally
   supportive of fire spread. Resulting combination of isolated dry
   thunderstorms and modestly receptive fuels will support increased
   fire danger and an isolated dry thunderstorm area has been
   delineated to address this threat.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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