Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Zonal flow is expected over much of the US as a broad upper trough
   becomes less amplified across the Midwest. High pressure will
   gradually build over the South and Southwest, bringing mid-level
   moisture northward into the Great Basin and surrounding areas. At
   the surface, a stalled front will drift across Utah and southern
   Nevada, while a thermal low develops across southern Arizona. With
   limited flow aloft, overall fire weather potential is low.

   ...Western Permian Basin/ Trans Pecos..
   Gusty southeasterly surface winds are expected on the southwestern
   flank of high pressure across the southern US. Very warm
   temperatures, at or exceeding 100 F, will support very dry surface
   conditions with RH in the single digits to low teens. With 15-20 mph
   surface flow, very dry/warm conditions, and very dry fuels, elevated
   fire weather potential seems likely.

   Across west Texas and far eastern New Mexico, gusty surface winds
   may develop in proximity to monsoonal thunderstorm activity. Overall
   storm mode is forecast to be wet, given preciptable water values
   near 1 inch. A couple of dry strikes may interact with very dry
   fuels, but expected coverage is too low to introduce dry thunder
   probabilities.

   ...Sierras and western Great basin...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected over dry fuels within portions
   of the central/southern Sierras. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms
   are expected given increasing precipitable water from a monsoonal
   moisture surge. Low storm coverage and the wetter mode will likely
   not be sufficient to support dry thunderstorm probabilities,
   although a couple dry strikes may occur.

   ..Lyons.. 07/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak upper-low/ shortwave trough will move onshore Day2/Thursday
   as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal across the CONUS.
   High pressure across the Southwest will help transport mid-level
   moisture northward into the Great Basin. A cold front will begin to
   move eastward across the Intermountan West with a risk for
   thunderstorms. While overall fire weather potential is low, a few
   areas will be at risk for dry thunderstorms given the increase in
   monsoonal moisture.

   ...Sierras and portions of western Utah...
   Mid-level moisture is forecast to continue to filter northward and
   interact with subtle lift from a weak shortwave trough across the
   West Coast. Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely over
   top of very dry fuels. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is
   expected given the increasing magnitude of water content from the
   northward surging mid-level moisture. While storm speeds will be
   slow, coverage appears to be high enough to support isolated dry
   strike activity and efficient starts.

   There is some signal for thunderstorm development within
   central/east-central Nevada on the fringe of the mid-level moisture
   and upper-level lift. However, coverage appears low and uncertainty
   remains too large to include this area in dry thunder probabilities.

   ...Eastern New Mexico...
   Locally elevated conditions may develop with gusty southeast surface
   winds on the backside of the area of high pressure across the
   southern US. Cloud cover and thunderstorm activity will likely limit
   the areal coverage of critical RH, though a few local pockets could
   see brief elevated fire weather conditions where fuels are
   supportive.

   ..Lyons.. 07/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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