Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

   Valid 131700Z - 141200Z

   ...Southeast Wyoming...
   Nearly all 12Z guidance is warmer/dryer than their 00Z counterparts,
   with the 12Z guidance likely better handling the recent snow melt
   over the area (see previous discussion below). Observations at 16Z
   from KLAR/KRWL/KCYS and the RTMA suggest that elevated (to
   near-critical) meteorological fire weather conditions are already
   ongoing over much of the area -- despite temperatures near 50F.
   While fuels are somewhat questionable owing to the recent snow melt,
   updated fuel guidance suggests enough fuel drying (especially with
   fine fuels) has occurred for at least elevated fire weather
   conditions amidst the near-critical meteorological conditions.  

   ...New Mexico: San Miquel County...
   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also expected for a few
   hours this afternoon across portions of San Miquel County, as
   sustained surface wind speeds of 15-20 mph overlap RH values near
   15%. Overall, the brief/spotty nature of the elevated fire weather
   conditions precludes a fire weather area. 

   Please see previous discussion below for more information on today's
   fire weather forecast.

   ..Elliott.. 10/13/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   Shortwave ridging will be present across the northern/central
   Rockies and adjacent High Plains today. Lee troughing in the
   northern High Plains will occur ahead of the next northern-stream
   trough forecast to dive southeastward into the region by D2/Monday.
   While dry conditions will be present across much of the West, weak
   surface flow will be prevalent as well as cool surface temperatures
   expected from the northern Great Basin, central Rockies, and points
   northward. An area of locally enhanced surface flow is possible in
   south-central Wyoming in response to the deepening surface trough.
   With recent snowfall having melted within the lower valleys, model
   forecast temperatures may be a bit underdone. However, lack of fuels
   in the more favorable locations for stronger surface winds (15-20
   mph) generally precludes the need for elevated highlights. Thus, a
   localized threat for fire spread within dry fine fuels appears to be
   the main threat.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...Southern Wyoming and far northwest Colorado...
   The elevated fire weather area over Wyoming was expanded
   southwestward into far northwest Colorado with this update, as
   similar conditions/fuels are expected over these areas. While near
   critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions of
   southern Wyoming, a critical fire area was not introduced due to the
   relatively marginal fuel receptiveness. Although elevated
   meteorological conditions may also occur in southwestern Wyoming,
   the relative lack of fuels for large fire spread across these areas
   precludes any fire weather highlights.

   Elevated to locally critical meteorological fire weather conditions
   are also possible across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
   However, fuel receptiveness is even more marginal over these areas,
   precluding any fire weather highlights at this time.  

   ...New Mexico: San Miguel County...
   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also expected for a few
   hours Day 2/Monday afternoon across portions of San Miguel County,
   as sustained surface wind speeds of 15-20 mph overlap near-critical
   RH values (i.e., around 15%). Overall, the brief/spotty nature of
   these conditions precludes a fire weather area. 

   Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
   tomorrow's fire weather forecast.

   ..Elliott.. 10/13/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level shortwave trough will impact the northern Rockies on
   D2/Monday. At the surface, a cold front will surge southward across
   the northern Plains with a surface trough moving from eastern
   Montana into the central Plains. The combination of strong mid-level
   winds overspreading much of the High Plains of Wyoming as well as
   enhanced surface flow in the vicinity of the surface
   trough/approaching front will lead to elevated fire weather concerns
   over portions of southeastern Wyoming. The threat will likely be
   relegated to lower elevations as recent snowfall and cooler
   temperatures will suppress fire spread potential within the higher
   terrain. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph are probable with another day of
   10-15% RH during the afternoon. Fine fuels are likely the most
   receptive to fire spread with heavier fuels only marginally dry.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Related severe weather links:

• Advisories & Warnings
• Hazardous Weather Outlook
• Local Storm Reports
• SPC Forecast
• SPC Discussion
• SPC Watches
• SPC Fire Weather Outlook
• SPC Storm Reports
• Subscribe to our email alert / report system