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Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook |
Weather Advisories and Warnings National Wildland Fire Activity Map |
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook![]() NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z Much of the previous forecast remains largely on track. Mid-level clouds are present across the southern Rockies and are currently overspreading portions of the southern High Plains. These clouds are expected to limit surface heating/boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, at least low-end Elevated conditions are still expected across portions of the central/southern High Plains and southern Arizona/New Mexico as limited boundary-layer heating and downslope flow encourages patchy 20% RH amidst sustained winds over 15 mph by mid afternoon. Farther east however, visible satellite indicates clear skies, with METAR observations indicating RH dropping to 35-40%. While the ambient low-level airmass is not quite as dry as yesterday, continued heating should promote enough boundary-layer mixing to support RH dropping to near 25% in spots. Given multiple hours of sustained 15-25 mph southwesterly surface winds and fuels receptive to fire spread, an Elevated area has been maintained. Lastly, with surface high pressure persisting across the eastern U.S., much of the southeast towards the Mid Atlantic are expected to see widespread 25-35% RH by afternoon peak heating. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the lack of stronger winds. However, localized wildfire concerns exist given the low RH and presence of drying finer fuels. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021/ ...Synopsis... An active fire weather pattern will begin today and is expected to persist well into the middle of the work week. This will mainly be driven by persistent upper-level troughing over the West Coast with strong mid and upper-level west/southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Consequently, surface pressure falls over the inter-mountain West and along the lee of the Rockies will help augment regional surface pressure gradients and downslope flow. For today, areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected, particularly for southeast AZ into the southern/central High Plains and eastern Kansas. ...Southern/Central High Plains... The latest surface observations show winds already increasing to around 15 mph across the TX/OK Panhandles in response to the onset of lee troughing across eastern CO. This trend will continue through the day as upper-level flow increases over the Rockies (likely aided by an embedded shortwave impulse noted over southern CA). While modest moisture return is ongoing across the TX Panhandle, 15-25 mph downslope flow should allow 15-25% RH to overspread northeast NM into eastern CO and adjacent areas of the TX/OK Panhandles and KS. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely, and brief critical conditions are possible. Additionally, elevated conditions may extend as far north as northeast CO and southeast WY, but confidence in RH reductions diminishes this far north. ...Southwest... Dry conditions have been noted across much of AZ over the past few days with afternoon RH in the teens and low 20s. Minimal moisture return into the region will result in another day of dry conditions with similar RH reductions. A weak surface low, noted over central NV, will deepen as it moves to the northeast, resulting in strengthening surface winds up to 25 mph across northern AZ and southern UT. While elevated meteorological conditions are expected, fuels remain below critical thresholds for the majority of the region. To the south, fuels are more receptive and will support an elevated fire weather concern. Relative humidity values will likely fall into the low teens and single digits. However, this region will be on the periphery of the stronger mid-level flow and displaced from the tighter surface pressure gradient, suggesting that 15-20 mph winds will be more common. ...Eastern Kansas... Another day of breezy conditions is expected across OK and KS due to lee troughing to the west with a persistent surface high to the east. While the strongest gradient winds will likely reside across central/western KS (where modest moisture advection is expected), sustained winds between 15-20 mph appear likely for eastern KS. Regional 00 UTC soundings reveal dry boundary layers with minimal moisture improvements upstream from eastern KS (across OK and TX). Observed relative humidity values were lower yesterday (Saturday) than forecast by most guidance, and a similar trend is possible today given a similar synoptic regime. With receptive fuels already in place, elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Southeast and the Carolinas... Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast for today with afternoon RH values falling well into the 20s, and possibly high teens, from central AL into the western Carolinas. A few locations have cured fuels that could support a wildfire threat, but surface high pressure will limit wind speeds and the overall fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook![]() |
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