Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook

• Day 1 fire weather outlook and map
• Day 2 fire weather outlook and map

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

	    
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 AM CDT Wed Aug 22 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies Vicinity - Dry
   Thunderstorms...

   An upper low centered over southeast Oregon early this morning will
   shift eastward, becoming an open wave, across ID this afternoon.
   West/southwesterly shear will increase across the northern Great
   Basin into southern ID/southwest MT and WY as the wave approaches.
   Moderate midlevel moisture and steepening lapse rates will promote
   scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon across much
   of the Great Basin into parts of the northern Rockies. 

   PW values from northeast NV into northwest UT, far western WY,
   southern and central ID and southwest MT will range from about
   0.6-0.8 inches. This in and of itself would tend to limit wetting
   rain, in combination with a dry, deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer and
   fast storm motion. However, some wetting rains will be possible
   given scattered to possibly numerous storm coverage. Despite this,
   have introduced a critical area for scattered dry thunderstorms
   across parts of southeastern ID where a minimum in rainfall over the
   last week exists in combination with critically dry fuels. More
   isolated dry thunderstorm coverage is expected across parts of
   northeast NV/northwest UT into southwest and central ID and parts of
   southwest MT. Additionally, portions of those areas (northeast NV,
   central ID into southwest MT) have seen rainfall amounts close to 1
   inch over the last week.

   In addition to the threat of lightning ignitions, strong and erratic
   wind gusts will be possible with these storms (see Day 1 SPC
   Convective Outlook for severe potential), posing additional concerns
   for any ongoing fires. 

   ...Far Southwest ID into parts of eastern NV - Wind/RH...

   Increasing deep layer westerlies associated with the aforementioned
   upper trough will overspread much of the Great Basin today. Elevated
   fire weather conditions will be possible over parts of far southwest
   ID into eastern NV where strong heating will result in a deeply
   mixed boundary layer and any appreciable moisture will remain north
   and east of the area. RH values will fall into the upper single
   digits to 12 percent during the afternoon and sustained southwest
   surface winds around 15-20 mph are likely.

   ..Leitman.. 08/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

 Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   ...Columbia Basin Vicinity of WA/OR...

   A weak shortwave ridge over the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning
   will quickly track eastward across the northern Rockies by early
   evening. This will lead to modest deep layer westerly flow east of
   the Cascades. At the surface, a dry cold front will shift southeast
   across WA/OR through 00z. While the front will not bring much in the
   way of cooler temperatures during the day, some drying and gusty
   winds will be possible. As a result, elevated fire weather
   conditions are possible, mainly into the Columbia Basin, for a few
   hours Thursday afternoon. RH values will generally fall into the
   15-25 percent range and westerly winds around 15 mph with
   occasionally higher gusts can be expected. 

   ...Southern ID...

   Breezy deep layer westerly flow will persist across southern ID on
   Thursday as the upper trough departs to the east. Elevated fire
   weather conditions are possible, as RH values fall into the 12-20
   percent range. Sustained west winds around 15 mph with occasionally
   higher gusts are possible. This could be enough to support growth of
   any lightning ignitions from the Day 1 period, but overall wind/RH
   conditions are expected to remain below critical concerns.

   ..Leitman.. 08/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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