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LYTLE CREEK, Calif. — An explosive brush fire that has ripped through more than 30,000 acres of hills, canyons and flatlands in Southern California’s Cajon Pass has bewildered veteran firefighters who fear the flames will only worsen. “It hit hard, it hit fast — it hit with an intensity that we haven’t seen before,” San Bernardino… Continue reading Homes burn, thousands flee as fire chars 30,000 acres in Southern California’s Cajon Pass |
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Firenado captured on video at Beaver Creek Fire
Thus far, Colorado has been fortunate with relatively few large wildfires. The one notable exception is the Beaver Creek Fire where a firefighter recently captured video of a ‘firenado.’
Also called a fire whirl, a firenado occurs when the rising heat from the blaze meets whirling winds. The effect and appearance is much like a tornado – but made of fire and ash instead of dust and debris. Check out the amazing video below.
As of today, the Beaver Creek Fire has scorched over 36,000 acres since it started on June 19th. Burning northwest of Walden near the Colorado / Wyoming border, the blaze is only 44 percent contained and full containment isn’t expected until cooler temperatures arrive late next month into October.
Click here for the latest details on the blaze from Inciweb.
August 7 to August 13: This week in Denver weather history
As we get further into the month of August severe weather is less common. It can however still strike as we see in our look at this week in Denver weather history. Everything from torrential rains to massive hail and even a tornado have been reported.
From the National Weather Service:
7
In 1948…a brief west moving tornado was sighted 3 miles north-northeast of Stapleton Airport. The white funnel silhouetted against a gray cloud background was very narrow…nearly vertical…and estimated at nearly 5 thousand feet high. A dust cloud formed on the ground around the funnel. No damage was reported.
In 1952…a thunderstorm wind gust to 52 mph was recorded at Stapleton Airport.
In 2014…severe thunderstorms produced large hail across western and southern parts of metro Denver. Near Centennial and Golden…hail up to quarter size was reported. Near Bennett…a peak thunderstorm wind gust to 65 mph was also reported. At Denver International Airport…a peak wind gust to 46 mph was recorded.
8
In 1874…swarms of grasshoppers invaded the city. Millions of them were seen cruising through the air. The insects were apparently picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers had ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month.
In 1878…the highest temperature ever recorded in Denver…105 degrees…occurred at 3:20 pm. This temperature was equaled on July 20th in 2005.
In 1969…the temperature reached 100 degrees at Stapleton International Airport.
In 1976…in Thornton…a 13 year old boy riding a bicycle was struck and killed by lightning.
In 2000…lightning struck three homes in central Arapahoe County east of Denver. Damage was estimated at 47 thousand dollars.
In 2003…hail to 1 inch in diameter pelted Denver. Hail to 7/8 inch was measured in Boulder.
In 2008…heavy rain also caused flash flooding over south Denver and its nearby suburbs. Heavy rain…from 2.5 to 4 inches…fell in less than 90 minutes. Firefighters rescued 20 people as the water quickly rose along creeks…flooded roadways…and stranded motorists. Three people had to be rescued along Cherry Creek when the bike path flooded.
In Evergreen…a man suffered minor injuries when he was struck by lightning. It entered his finger…traveled down his body… And exited his foot.
In 2013…heavy rain caused localized flash flooding in Aurora. An undergound parking garage at an apartment complex was inundated with 3 to 4 feet of water. Flash flooding forced a road closure at East Mississippi Ave. and Alton St. Also… several people had to be rescued when three vehicles stalled in floodwaters at Alameda Ave. and Havana St. The stationary thunderstorms dumped 2.75 inches of rain in less than 45 minutes. In addition…large hail…up to one inch in diameter… was reported north of Roxbourough State Park. At Denver International Airport…just a trace of rainfall was observed.
8-10
In 1979…heavy thunderstorm rains on each of three consecutive days dumped a total of 2.22 inches of rain at Stapleton International Airport. The heaviest rain… 0.95 inches…fell on the 9th. Small hail to 1/8 inch diameter fell on the 8th.
8-13
In 1875…clouds of grasshoppers were seen flying through the air on the prevailing winds during each day.
9
In 1900…a thunderstorm produced west winds sustained to 47 mph with gusts to 55 mph…but only 0.01 inch of rain.
In 1902…a thunderstorm produced no rain and north winds sustained to 52 mph with gusts to 60 mph.
In 1934…heavy cloudbursts in the foothills near Kittredge and at the head of Mount Vernon creek caused flash flooding on both Bear Creek and Mount Vernon Creek at Morrison… Which resulted in 6 deaths and much property damage. The highway in Mount Vernon canyon was destroyed by the flood waters.
In 1981…3/4 inch hail fell at Kittredge near Evergreen in Jefferson County.
In 1987…3/4 inch hail fell in Boulder and 9 miles northwest of Castle Rock.
In 1995…lightning struck a 16-year-old counselor in the back of the head while he and a friend were standing under a tree at the singing river ranch…7 miles west of Evergreen. He stopped breathing…but his friend was able to summon help and they were able to revive him. He was hospitalized for a few days and released.
In 1998…brief…weak tornadoes (f0) were sighted near Bennett and Roggen. No damage was reported. Hail as large as 1 inch diameter fell in Franktown with 3/4 inch diameter hail measured near Castle Rock. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 61 mph near Roggen.
9-10
In 2006…mid and high cloudiness overnight on both days resulted in two temperature records. The low temperature of 71 degrees on the 9th was a record high minimum for the date. The low temperature of 68 degrees on the 10th equaled the record high minimum for the date first set in 1936.
10
In 1924…0.01 inch of rain fell over downtown Denver. This along with the 0.01 inch of rainfall on the 4th was the only rainfall of the month…making this the driest August on record in the city.
In 1962…the high temperature reached 100 degrees at Stapleton Airport.
In 1970…hail stones to 1 inch in diameter were reported in the Fort Lupton area.
In 1972…dry thunderstorm microburst winds gusting to 46 mph briefly reduced the surface visibility to 3/4 mile in blowing dust at Stapleton International Airport.
In 1978…lightning struck two men in Aurora…killing one and injuring the other.
In 1982…a tornado was sighted near Castle Rock and remained on the ground for 10 minutes. Wind gusts to 60 mph were reported in Castle Rock. No damage was reported.
In 1994…heavy thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding on Lena Gulch in west metro Denver. Damage was estimated at 50 thousand dollars. Lightning struck a house in Westminster…causing a small attic fire.
In 1996…strong thunderstorm winds toppled a tent at a company picnic in Westminster. Five people received minor injuries when the tent collapsed. Two cars nearby were also damaged by flying debris. A weak tornado (F0)…first sighted near Denver International Airport…traveled east to near Bennett and Strasburg. No significant damage was reported.
In 1998…heavy rain caused flooding and flash flooding problems over southwest metro Denver. An observer in Lakewood measured 3.26 inches of rainfall in an hour. Several streets were flooded in central Lakewood.
In addition…a trailer park along Lena Gulch in Wheat Ridge was evacuated due to high waters. One inch diameter hail fell near Roggen.
In 1999…thunderstorm-producing tornadoes…damaging straight line winds…heavy rain…and hail hammered metro Denver. In the city…small hail and heavy rainfall…up to 2.50 inches an hour…caused a 20-foot by 50-foot section of the roof to collapse at a furniture warehouse. Damage to the warehouse was estimated at 1 million dollars. Heavy rain also flooded several underpasses with up to 3 feet of water…which resulted in a number of stalled vehicles. In Fort Lupton…a tornado bounced across the area. Spotty damage was reported along a 5-mile path as trees…power poles…and lines were downed. In addition…an empty semi-trailer was overturned onto another vehicle northeast of the town. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 81 mph south of Fort Lupton.
In 2004…severe thunderstorms pummeled metro Denver with large hail. Hail up to 3 inches in diameter was measured 10 miles east of Castle Rock. Two inch diameter hail fell in Louisville…10 miles north of Hudson…and 1 mile east of Brighton. Hail to 1.75 inches was reported in Englewood… 1 mile south of Ft. Lupton…and 8 miles east of Boulder. Hail to 1.50 inches was reported around Boulder…near Broomfield…and in Lafayette…Thornton and greenwood village. Hail from 3/4 to 1 inch in diameter was found in Broomfield… Brighton…Castle Rock…Denver and Thornton…and near Longmont… Northglenn…greenwood village…Morrison…and Wheat Ridge. Severe thunderstorm wind gusts were recorded to 66 mph in Parker and to 60 mph 5 miles northeast of Boulder. There were no damage estimates from the hail or wind.
Continue reading August 7 to August 13: This week in Denver weather history
July 2016 weather recap: Thornton sees near normal temps, below average precipitation
While the month of July seemed hot and dry, statistics show that only one of those two conditions held true. We definitely saw a big time lack of precipitation but temperatures averaged out to near normal.
High pressure was the dominate feature for the month leading to overall dry conditions. We started out cooler than normal and somewhat wet for the first two days of the month. That however changed quickly.
From the 3rd through the 17th of the month, Thornton saw temperatures largely remain above normal. Only two days during that period saw precipitation and both were minimal amounts. We saw our hottest temperature of the year to date and our only 100-degree temperature reading of the year on the 10th when the mercury topped out at 100.4 Degrees.
On the 14th and 15th of the month, we had a brief respite from the heat as temperatures were a bit below normal. However, we then put together a string of 12 straight days of 90 degree or hotter readings.
The 28th and 29th then broke the streak with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The month then closed with two days of above normal readings.
Thornton’s overall average temperature for the month came in at 74.7 degrees. This is just above the long term Denver average for July of 74.2 degrees. Out at DIA where the Mile High City’s official measurements are taken, the average for this July was much higher at 76.2 degrees.
Temperatures in Thornton ranged from the aforementioned 100.4 degrees on the 10th down to a low of 54.6 degrees on the morning of the 9th. Denver’s official high for the month was 102 degrees on the 10th and its low of 51 degrees came on the 12th.
In terms of precipitation, Denver averages 2.16 inches during the July. Thornton fell far short of that with a paltry 0.55 inches of rain in our bucket. The airport, while receiving nearly double our total at 1.09 inches, was well short of average as well.
Click here to view Thornton’s July 2016 climate report.
From the National Weather Service:
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2016
...................................
...THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2016...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2016
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
HIGH 105 07/20/2005
LOW 42 07/04/1903
07/31/1873
HIGHEST 102 07/10 M -3 97 07/27
LOWEST 51 07/12 M 9 52 07/28
AVG. MAXIMUM 92.0 89.4 2.6 87.6
AVG. MINIMUM 60.5 58.9 1.6 57.9
MEAN 76.2 74.2 2.0 72.8
DAYS MAX >= 90 22 16.0 6.0 16
DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
MAXIMUM 6.41 1965
MINIMUM 0.01 1901
TOTALS 1.07 2.16 -1.09 1.06
DAILY AVG. 0.03 0.07 -0.04 0.03
DAYS >= .01 6 8.3 -2.3 12
DAYS >= .10 4 4.3 -0.3 3
DAYS >= .50 1 1.4 -0.4 0
DAYS >= 1.00 0 0.7 -0.7 0
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL 0.61 07/01 TO 07/01 07/18 TO 07/18
06/30 TO 07/01 07/29 TO 07/29
07/01 TO 07/01 07/29 TO 07/29
STORM TOTAL MM MM
(MM/DD(HH)) MM 07/18(00) TO 07/18(00)
07/29(00) TO 07/29(00)9
07/29(00) TO 07/29(00)9
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
TOTAL MM MM
TOTALS 0.0 0.0
DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL 0 6 -6 5
SINCE 7/1 0 6 -6 5
COOLING TOTAL 356 289 67 251
SINCE 1/1 544 444 100 409
FREEZE DATES
RECORD
EARLIEST 09/08/1962
LATEST 06/08/2007
EARLIEST 10/07
LATEST 05/05
..........................................................
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 10.2
RESULTANT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 3/169
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 54/340 DATE 07/24
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 74/340 DATE 07/24
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.50
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 10
NUMBER OF DAYS PC 19
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 2
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 46
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM 12 MIXED PRECIP 0
HEAVY RAIN 1 RAIN 0
LIGHT RAIN 13 FREEZING RAIN 0
LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
FOG 3 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 0
HAZE 1
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
Thornton’s August preview: Temperatures cool, severe weather eases
As summer vacations wind down and families prepare to send their kids back to school in August, Colorado weather also starts to settle down. The chances for severe weather decrease markedly during August and by the end of the month daytime temperatures are dropping quite a bit as well.
Find out more about what lies ahead with Thornton’s August weather here.
July 31 to August 6: This Week in Denver Weather History
How does 42 degrees sound right about now? That mark is one of the highlights of this week in Denver weather history. It was the low temperature recorded twice in our past and the coldest July temperature on record. Many more notable events have also occurred.
From the National Weather Service:
13-5
In 2008…a streak of 24 consecutive days of 90 degrees shattered the previous record of 18 consecutive days established in 1901 and 1874. Ironically…no new single day record high temperatures were set in the month of July. In August however…a record of 104 degrees was set on the 1st…and another record of 103 degrees was set on the 2nd. In addition…a record low min of 70 degrees was set on August 2nd.
18-2
In 1987…a streak of 16 consecutive days of 90 degrees ranked 4th on the list of hot streaks. The record of 24 consecutive days was established in the summer of 2008.
27-31
In 1956…96 percent of the total precipitation for the month of July occurred over the last five days of the month. Heavy thunderstorms produced 4.00 inches of rainfall at Stapleton Airport. This amount of precipitation in 5 days or less had been exceeded only 3 times in previous record. The last time had been in December of 1913 as snow. Considerable property damage occurred across metro Denver from flooding.
31
In 1873…the all-time lowest recorded temperature in July… 42 degrees…occurred. The same temperature also occurred on July 4…1903.
In 1874…during the late afternoon rain and hail fell for 5 minutes followed by brief heavy rain. Pieces of solid ice of irregular shape fell upon the roof of the station. The hail stones measured 1 1/2 inches in diameter. Precipitation (rain and melted hail) was only 0.16 inch.
In 1889…the high temperature climbed to 100 degrees in downtown Denver.
In 1919…heavy thunderstorm rainfall totaled 2.59 inches in downtown Denver during the evening. Rainfall was 1.90 inches in an hour…a new record at that time.
In 1961…over an inch of rain in a short period of time caused flooding of streets and basements in Denver. Rainfall totaled 1.30 inches at 11th and Lincoln in central Denver.
In 1964…the temperature reached 91 degrees in Denver…making this the 27th day of the month that the temperature reached 90 degrees or more. This is the all time record for 90 degree days in a month in Denver.
In 1972…one inch diameter hail fell in Hudson northeast of Denver.
In 1976…during the evening hours extremely heavy thunderstorm rains produced flash flooding in Big Thompson Canyon which killed 144 people between Estes Park and Loveland. No significant weather occurred in metro Denver at the time.
In 1987…1 inch diameter hail fell in Lakewood and 3/4 inch hail fell near Louisville. Southeast Boulder County was drenched with 1.25 inches of rain in just 20 minutes.
In 1993…thunderstorm winds damaged a chimney of a home near Parker.
In 1996…a weak tornado (f0) was sighted 12 miles east of Denver International Airport. No damage was reported.
In 1998…heavy monsoonal thunderstorm rain triggered a mud slide in Blackhawk. The mudslide blocked Main St. and caused an estimated half million dollars in damage to a casino. Heavy thunderstorm rain…up to 3 inches in an hour…caused a flash flood along Buffalo Creek. Portions of County Road 126 just south of the town of Buffalo Creek were washed out. The flood waters nearly washed away the bridge as mud and debris slammed into the structure. Hail to 1 3/4 inches in diameter fell near Idaho Springs.
In 2004…severe thunderstorm winds toppled a 65-foot blue spruce tree in Parker. The tree landed on a home damaging the roof and gutters. The downed tree poked dozens of holes into the shingles.
In 2013…severe thunderstorm winds… with gusts estimated to 80 mph…downed power poles which caused scattered outages in and around Byers…Bennett and Strasburg. Some property damage was also observed. Near Byers…aluminum siding and roofing was peeled off sheds. Large hail…up to one inch in diameter… was reported north of Bennett. At Denver International Airport…a peak wind gust to 40 mph was observed from the northeast.
1
In 1888…heavy rain in the mountains and foothills caused flooding on clear creek in Golden. The high waters also washed away portions of the railroad tracks in the canyon between Idaho Springs and Golden.
In 1901…the temperature reached a high of 100 degrees in the city.
In 1902…the high temperature climbed to 100 degrees in downtown Denver.
In 1914…a thunderstorm produced 1.00 inch of rainfall in just 21 minutes and north winds sustained at 43 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Rainfall totaled 1.17 inches.
In 1938…the temperature climbed to a high of 100 degrees in downtown Denver…which is the record maximum for the date. The temperature was also recorded on this date in previous years.
In 1976…flight operations at Stapleton International Airport were suspended for 90 minutes when the airport tower radar was knocked out and water reached a foot deep on some taxi ramps after 1.50 inches of rain fell in one hour. Heavy rain also caused minor flooding in east Denver and Aurora where lightning damaged the roof of a home and injured the owner. One young man was swept down a flooded ditch…but was rescued by firemen. A number of rafts were floated in flooded streets. Thunderstorm rainfall totaled 1.71 inches at Stapleton International Airport.
In 1978…a tornado damaged a house and broke a power pole 5 miles northwest of Parker. A microburst wind gust to 52 mph briefly reduced visibility to 1 mile in blowing dust at Stapleton International Airport.
In 1985…heavy thunderstorms roared through the southern and western sections of metro Denver…producing large hail and heavy rain. Lightning hit a recreational vehicle trailer causing it to burn. There was a lot of street flooding over western suburbs where rainfall totaled over 2 inches in some areas. One inch diameter hail was reported in Littleton and near Evergreen. Hail piled 4 to 6 inches deep at Tinytown in the foothills southwest of Denver.
In 1990…a small rope-like tornado was spotted in open country 15 miles southeast of centennial airport. No damage was reported from the twister.
In 1992…pilots reported a funnel cloud near the construction site of the new Denver International Airport. A few minutes later…a tornado was reported near Bennett. The tornado remained on the ground for about 18 minutes and was visible from the national weather service office at Stapleton International Airport. Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph were reported near Bennett and Watkins with a wind gust to 60 mph at Brighton. Two men were injured when struck by lightning. A young man sustained serious injuries when struck by lightning while jet skiing on Cheery Creek Reservoir. A man received only minor injuries when struck by lightning while golfing in Westminster.
In 1994…heavy thunderstorm rains in the foothills west of Denver caused the closure of the Virginia Canyon Road north of Idaho Springs by rocks and debris.
In 2001…a 34 year old man on the South Platte River bike path in Denver received minor injuries when lightning struck a nearby tree. Lightning…coupled with strong thunderstorm winds…knocked out electrical power to about 10 thousand homes and businesses in Golden.
In 2006…strong thunderstorms hit southern metro Denver. A severe thunderstorm wind gust estimated to 71 mph knocked down a tree in Aurora near Cherry Creek. Lightning sparked a fire in a home near lone tree and struck a transformer at an RTD light rail station at Interstate 25 and Yosemite Street. Heavy thunderstorm rainfall forced the closure of Arapahoe Road between Holly and Quebec streets due to high water. Flooding was also reported near Park Meadows Mall and Greenwood Village. Heavy rainfall also caused flooding in Highlands Ranch…lone tree…and Parker. Water up to 6 inches deep was reportedly running over the roads.
2
In 1878…the high temperature reached 100 degrees in downtown Denver.
In 1911…an apparent dry microburst produced sustained west winds to 42 mph.
In 1972…one workman was killed and another injured when a strong gust of wind destroyed a partially completed apartment building in south Denver. Hail to 1 3/4 inch diameter fell in Golden.
In 1973…hail to 3/4 inch diameter was reported in Boulder.
In 1986…a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms occurred along the Front Range. Thunderstorms developed explosively. Some places were hit by large hail twice. Two inch diameter hail broke car windows on I-25 west of Brighton…and up to 1 1/4 inch hail broke windows in Thornton. Baseball size hail damaged several planes near Watkins. Funnel clouds were sighted around Aurora. Hail over 1/2 inch in diameter covered the ground 3 to 4 inches deep at Hudson northeast of Denver. Most of the hail fell north of metro Denver…but 3/4 inch diameter hail was measured at Stapleton International Airport. Total damage from the hail storms this day was estimated at over 10 million dollars.
In 1991…late afternoon thunderstorms produced heavy rain across metro Denver. Two feet of water covered parts of I-25 in southeast Denver…while one foot of water covered parts of U.S. Highway 285 in Englewood. Thunderstorm rainfall totaled 0.50 inch at Stapleton International Airport.
In 2001…severe thunderstorms producing heavy rain and hail… Either washed out or damaged several County roads in the Watkins and Bennett areas. A small tornado (f0) touched down near Bennett…but did no damage. Hail as large as 1 3/4 inches in diameter fell near Watkins. One inch diameter hail was measured near Hudson and Keenesburg.
In 2008…strong winds blew several trees down in Denver… Damaging homes and downing power lines. A peak wind gust of 67 mph occurred at Centennial airport…with gusts to 60 mph estimated in Denver. A peak wind gust of 37 mph was measured at Denver International Airport. An elderly man was killed when a wind damaged tree broke free and crushed him while he attempted to remove it. The downed power lines caused outages to about 500 Xcel Energy customers.
2-3
In 1876…grasshoppers were in great abundance in the city and caused considerable damage to gardens and to crops in the surrounding farms and ranches.
In 1951…heavy thunderstorms rumbled across metro Denver through the night. Heavy rain totaled 3.45 inches at Stapleton Airport. This was the greatest 24 hour precipitation ever recorded during the month of August in Denver.
In 2007…heavy rain caused localized flash flooding near Ft. Lupton. Up to 8 inches of water was reported across County road 18.
In addition…several other County roads in the immediate area were washed out.
Continue reading July 31 to August 6: This Week in Denver Weather History
NOAA to develop new global weather model
The primary model created by the United States for weather forecasting has been long overdue for some significant upgrades. NOAA has recently been making great strides in improving the system and has announced more details on the latest.
July 27, 2016 NOAA took a significant step toward building the world’s best global weather model today, a priority for the agency and the nation. NOAA announced the selection of a new dynamic core, the engine of a numerical weather prediction model, and will begin developing a state-of-the-art global weather forecasting model to replace the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS).
The new global model will continue to be called the GFS. As with the current GFS, the new GFS will run in the background of NOAA’s suite of weather and climate models improving skill across all NOAA’s forecast mission areas.
“Using our powerful supercomputers, our new dynamic core which drives the model, and the newest modeling techniques, we are poised to develop and run a more accurate and reliable global model that is used as a basis for all weather forecasts in the U.S.,” said Louis W. Uccellini, director, NOAA’s National Weather Service.
The new dynamic core, Finite-Volume on a Cubed-Sphere (FV3), was developed by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. The FV3 core brings a new level of accuracy and numeric efficiency to the model’s representation of atmospheric processes such as air motions. This makes possible simulations of clouds and storms, at resolutions not yet used in an operational global model.
The FV3 core enables the model to provide localized forecasts for several weather events simultaneously all while generating a global forecast every six hours. Looking 10 years ahead, the GFS model with the FV3 core will run in higher resolution and be able to zoom in on smaller and smaller storm systems to provide forecasters better pictures of how storms will evolve.
Goals for the new model are:
- a unified system to improve forecast accuracy beyond 8 to 10 days
- better model forecasts of hurricane track and intensity, and
- the extension of weather forecasting through 14 days and for extreme events, 3 to 4 weeks in advance.
Engaging the meteorology community during model development and improvement is a priority for NOAA. The agency plans to develop a program to involve researchers in testing and improving algorithms, data assimilation methods and physics. The goal is to incorporate successful enhancements into operations.
“We are collaborating with the best model developers in the U.S. and around the world to ensure the GFS has the most recent advances in weather prediction modeling, and so we can accelerate improvements to the model as they are developed,” Uccellini added.
Building the Next Generation Global Prediction System will take a tremendous amount of testing, analysis and verification. Model components, including the physics package, data assimilation and post processing—all parts of the existing architecture—will be rebuilt and improved to work with the new software.
NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses
Interesting. NASA study conflicts directly with much of the climate change narrative about ice in Antarctica.
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.
“We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.” Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.”
Scientists calculate how much the ice sheet is growing or shrinking from the changes in surface height that are measured by the satellite altimeters. In locations where the amount of new snowfall accumulating on an ice sheet is not equal to the ice flow downward and outward to the ocean, the surface height changes and the ice-sheet mass grows or shrinks.
But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years — I don’t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.”
The study analyzed changes in the surface height of the Antarctic ice sheet measured by radar altimeters on two European Space Agency European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites, spanning from 1992 to 2001, and by the laser altimeter on NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) from 2003 to 2008.
Zwally said that while other scientists have assumed that the gains in elevation seen in East Antarctica are due to recent increases in snow accumulation, his team used meteorological data beginning in 1979 to show that the snowfall in East Antarctica actually decreased by 11 billion tons per year during both the ERS and ICESat periods. They also used information on snow accumulation for tens of thousands of years, derived by other scientists from ice cores, to conclude that East Antarctica has been thickening for a very long time.
“At the end of the last Ice Age, the air became warmer and carried more moisture across the continent, doubling the amount of snow dropped on the ice sheet,” Zwally said.
The extra snowfall that began 10,000 years ago has been slowly accumulating on the ice sheet and compacting into solid ice over millennia, thickening the ice in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7 centimeters) per year. This small thickening, sustained over thousands of years and spread over the vast expanse of these sectors of Antarctica, corresponds to a very large gain of ice – enough to outweigh the losses from fast-flowing glaciers in other parts of the continent and reduce global sea level rise.
Zwally’s team calculated that the mass gain from the thickening of East Antarctica remained steady from 1992 to 2008 at 200 billion tons per year, while the ice losses from the coastal regions of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 65 billion tons per year.
“The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said. “But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.”
“The new study highlights the difficulties of measuring the small changes in ice height happening in East Antarctica,” said Ben Smith, a glaciologist with the University of Washington in Seattle who was not involved in Zwally’s study.
“Doing altimetry accurately for very large areas is extraordinarily difficult, and there are measurements of snow accumulation that need to be done independently to understand what’s happening in these places,” Smith said.
To help accurately measure changes in Antarctica, NASA is developing the successor to the ICESat mission, ICESat-2, which is scheduled to launch in 2018. “ICESat-2 will measure changes in the ice sheet within the thickness of a No. 2 pencil,” said Tom Neumann, a glaciologist at Goddard and deputy project scientist for ICESat-2. “It will contribute to solving the problem of Antarctica’s mass balance by providing a long-term record of elevation changes.”
July 2016 top shots: Monthly photo slideshow
Colorado offers outdoor opportunities unlike any other state and while the summer heat settles in, photos of the amazing scenes across our state provide a view into why we love it here so much.
The weather this time of year has a pretty standard pattern of quickly warming temperatures followed by afternoon thunderstorms that can cool things down. These storms sometimes provide a good bit of ‘excitement’ and are a prime photo subject.
- Slideshow updated July 25, 2016
Recreationalists head outdoors and take advantage of urban, suburban and rural opportunities. As they do, our abundant wildlife that is found just about anywhere comes into focus.
Showcasing images captured by ThorntonWeather.com readers as well as some of our own, our monthly slideshow covers the entire gamut of weather and nature related imagery. Sunsets, sunrises, wildlife and of course every type of weather condition are vividly depicted.
To learn more about how to send your photo to us for inclusion in the slideshow, see below the slideshow.
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What is missing in the slideshow above? Your photo!
Our monthly photo slideshow is going to feature images that we have taken but more importantly images that you have captured. The photos can be of anything even remotely weather-related.
Landscapes, current conditions, wildlife, pets, kids. Whimsical, newsy, artsy. Taken at the zoo, some other area attraction, a local park, a national park or your backyard. You name it, we want to see and share it!
Images can be taken in Thornton, Denver or anywhere across the extraordinary Centennial State. We’ll even take some from out of state if we can tie it to Colorado somehow.
We’ll keep the criteria very open to interpretation with just about any image eligible to be shown in our slideshows.
What do you win for having your image in our slideshow? We are just a ‘mom and pop’ outfit and make no money from our site so we really don’t have the means to provide prizes. However you will have our undying gratitude and the satisfaction that your images are shared on the most popular website in Thornton.
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July 24 to July 30: This week in Denver weather history
As we near the end of July the weather in Denver tends to be a bit more stable. That doesn’t mean the severe weather threat disappears as can be seen at our look back at this week in Denver weather history. Particularly notable are lightning injuries and deaths, flash flood events and even tornadoes.
From the National Weather Service:
7-25
In 1934…a streak of 15 consecutive days of 90 degrees ranked 5th on the list of hot streaks. The record of 24 consecutive days was established in the summer of 2008.
13-5
In 2008…a streak of 24 consecutive days of 90 degrees shattered the previous record of 18 consecutive days established in 1901 and 1874. Ironically…no new single day record high temperatures were set in the month of July. In August however…a record of 104 degrees was set on the 1st…and another record of 103 degrees was set on the 2nd. In addition…a record low min of 70 degrees was set on August 2nd.
18-2
In 1987…a streak of 16 consecutive days of 90 degrees ranked 4th on the list of hot streaks. The record of 24 consecutive days was established in the summer of 2008.
20-25
In 1965…heavy showers and thunderstorms doused metro Denver with significant rain each day. Rainfall for the six days totaled 5.16 inches at Stapleton International Airport. Massive rainfall occurred on the 20th…21st…and 25th… Flooding streets and basements and causing streams to overflow. The heaviest rainfall…2.05 inches…at Stapleton International Airport occurred on the 25th.
24
In 1896…heavy cloudbursts in the foothills west of Denver caused flash flooding on Bear Creek…Clear Creek…Golden Gate Gulch…and Mount Vernon Creek…resulting in a total of 27 deaths. The downpour dislodged large Boulders…one of which crushed a house. The heavy rain also caused a dam on cub creek to wash out…adding even more water to the flood. A wall of water as high as 10 feet flooded Evergreen and passed down bear creek…washing away many structures along the way. The flood crest produced 3 feet of water in downtown Morrison during the early evening. Flash flooding on Mount Vernon Creek added to the flooding in Morrison. In Golden…the flooding washed out bridges on clear creek and on Cresman and Tucker gulches and forced the closure of the power plant. In Denver…a thunderstorm produced hail of unknown size during the afternoon and rainfall of 1.23 inches overnight.
In 1958…a thunderstorm wind gust to 52 mph was recorded at Stapleton Airport.
In 1965…heavy rain caused flooding on clear creek and tucker gulch in Golden and west Denver. Damage in Golden was estimated at 80 thousand dollars. Heavy rain south of Denver washed out temporary earthen bridges constructed following the June floods in Castle Rock…Littleton… Englewood…and Denver. Bear creek in south Denver reached flood stage. A cloudburst on cub creek in Evergreen washed out bridges and roads. Heavy rain fell over all the Denver and Aurora areas…causing some flooding of roads…streets… And bridges. A man drowned in a flooded irrigation canal near Hudson. Heavy rain caused flooding of streets and roads in Blackhawk and central city. Hail caused minor damage in Idaho Springs.
In 1967…seven bridges were washed out along a normally dry creek bed south of State Highway 7 west of Brighton. One car was washed into the creek when a bridge gave way.
In 1970…hail stones to 1 1/4 inches in diameter fell in the foothills of Jefferson County southwest of Denver.
In 1971…golf ball size hail was reported in foothill areas of Jefferson County west of Denver. A funnel cloud was sighted in Aurora. Wind gusts estimated at 60 mph…hail… And heavy rain up to an inch in 15 minutes caused local flooding and some other damage in several areas of metro Denver. Hailstones to 3/4 inch in diameter fell 7 miles southeast of Denver.
In 1973…a thunderstorm wind gust to 52 mph was recorded at Stapleton International Airport where one inch diameter hail was measured.
In 1981…strong winds downed a power line in northeast Denver. Wind gusts to 50 mph were recorded at Chatfield Reservoir.
In 1987…3/4 inch diameter hail fell 5 miles northeast of Commerce City.
In 1996…hail…up to 1 3/4 inches in diameter…fell at Chatfield Reservoir. Hail to 3/4 inch in diameter was measured near Bennett.
In 2000…lightning struck near two golfers at ute creek golf course near Longmont…knocking them to the ground. The men received only minor injuries.
In 2001…lightning from a thunderstorm knocked out electrical power to about 1500 residents in the city of Denver.
In 2004…a chilly day with fog and thunderstorms resulted in two temperature records. The low temperature of 49 degrees was a record minimum for the date. The high temperature of only 58 degrees was a record low maximum for the date.
24-25
In 2003…maximum temperature of 100 degrees on the 24th was a record high for the date. Low temperature of 73 degrees on the 25th was a record high minimum for the date.
25
In 1875…brief heavy rain and hail lasted only 5 minutes… But the 1/4 inch diameter hail covered the ground to a depth of 1/2 inch and made the streets look like there had been snowfall. There was much crop damage…especially to corn…and some sheep were killed. Precipitation totaled 0.51 inch in the city.
In 1896…a heavy thunderstorm produced sustained northwest winds to 45 mph with gusts to 50 mph and 1.02 inches of rain.
In 1965…a cloudburst dumped 1.99 inches of rain in 30 minutes at Stapleton International Airport. The storm was accompanied by strong winds gusting to 70 mph. The heavy rain flooded numerous streets in east Denver and Aurora. One inch diameter hail accompanied a cloudburst…9 miles southwest of Denver. A funnel cloud was sighted 25 miles northwest of Denver. In Aurora…there were unofficial reports of 2.30 inches of rain in 40 minutes and 3.30 inches of rain in 30 to 40 minutes. Rainfall totaled 2.05 inches at Stapleton International Airport. Rainfall of 2.42 inches for 24 hours on the 24th and 25th was the second greatest on record for July.
In 1977…a tornado touched down briefly in Aurora southeast of Cheery Creek Reservoir. No damage was reported. A funnel cloud was sighted for 4 minutes by national weather service personnel 10 miles north of Stapleton International Airport near Henderson.
In 1991…heavy rain…up to half an inch in 10 minutes…caused flooding in Westminster…Northglenn…and north Denver where a section of railroad track was washed away. At Stapleton International Airport…heavy thunderstorm rain totaled 1.85 inches and briefly reduced the visibility to 1/4 mile. Hail to 1/8 inch in diameter was also measured. A tornado touched down briefly near Fort Lupton. No damage was reported.
In 1998…heavy monsoonal thunderstorm rains caused flooding and flash flooding in eastern and southern sections of metro Denver…including Englewood and Aurora…when about 2 to 3 inches of rain inundated the area. Both I-25 and I-70 were closed for 2 to 3 hours as several low lying areas became impassable due to the high waters. The water was estimated to be 15 feet deep in one flooded underpass along I-25. As a result…the freeway was closed from south of 6th Avenue to University Blvd. Standing water forced the closure of I-70 at gun club road east of Denver. In Englewood…U.S. Highway 285 was closed…when high water made it impassable. Several cars were reportedly floating down the roadway near Sheridan Blvd. In Aurora…the intersection at Yale Ave. And chambers rd. Was flooded by high water up to 4 feet deep when a spillway on the high line canal was breached. Lightning also knocked out 11 transformers across metro Denver…causing several small fires and scattered power outages. Flood and flash flooding also occurred north of Strasburg when as much as 2.51 inches of rain fell in an hour. The deluge resulted in considerable flooding of local streets and County roads. Torrential rainfall of 2 to 3 inches in less than an hour triggered a flash flood in Virginia Canyon. County road 279 between Idaho Springs and Central City was closed for two days to clear debris from mudslides. Several cars in Idaho Springs were washed off the road…and numerous basements were flooded in town. Thunderstorm rainfall totaled 2.69 inches at Denver International Airport.
In 2001…lightning struck two homes in Lafayette…damaging the roof and attic of one and shorting out the electrical system in another. Hail to 1 3/4 inch in diameter was measured 7 miles north of Castle Rock with 3/4 inch hail 7 miles north of Sedalia.
In 2005…heavy thunderstorm rain in the vicinity of the overland wildfire burn scar triggered a mudslide in Jamestown. Rocks the size of bowling balls…along with silt and mud slid down the mountain into the town. No one was injured. One parked car was buried by the debris.
In 2006…heavy thunderstorm rainfall caused flash flooding 1 mile north of the town of Westcreek in southwestern Douglas County. Several maintenance roads were washed out by the floodwaters.
26
In 1891…a thunderstorm produced sustained northeast winds to 44 mph with gusts to 60 mph and 0.16 inch of rain.
In 1894…a thunderstorm produced sustained southwest winds to 36 mph with gusts to 58 mph…but only 0.04 inch of rain.
In 1910…the high temperature reached 100 degrees in downtown Denver.
In 1959…a Denver man was stunned while standing by a car that was struck by lightning. He was treated for burns and shock at a local hospital. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 55 mph at Stapleton Airport.
In 1983…two heavy thunderstorms hit the northern and western suburbs. The first drenched Northglenn with an inch of rain in 30 minutes. The second storm dumped an inch or more of rain in Idaho Springs and Evergreen. The heaviest rainfall… 2.90 inches in an hour…caused minor street flooding in Golden.
In 1984…heavy early morning thunderstorms drenched the foothills southwest of Denver. Rainfall to 1 1/2 inches in just 30 minutes occurred between Evergreen and Conifer. In nearby Turkey Creek Canyon…1.80 inches of rain was recorded in 35 minutes.
In 1985…a long rope-like white tornado touched down 5 miles east of Erie and stayed on the ground…mainly over an open field…for 18 minutes. However…the twister damaged a few cars on I-25 and injured 3 people from broken glass. The storm flipped over a van…blew out car windows…and ripped a highway sign. It also blew an outbuilding off its foundation. A tornado also touched down briefly 8 miles north of Bennett. No damage was reported from this storm.
In 1988…a 9-year-old girl was slightly injured by lightning in Parker.
In 2003…a severe thunderstorm in and south of Franktown produced hail as large as 1.75 inches in diameter.
Continue reading July 24 to July 30: This week in Denver weather history