Colorado State University 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. Click for larger view. (ThorntonWeather.com)
The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has released its initial forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters are expecting a relatively typical season in terms of the number of storms and their relative strengths.
Headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the team predicts a total of 13 named storms. Of those, six are expected to become hurricanes and 2 of those major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.
On average, the Atlantic receives 12 named storms, five of which would be hurricanes and two of those major storms.
Of the storms expected to develop in 2016, the forecasters give a 50% chance that at some point the U.S. coastline will be struck by a major hurricane. Average for the past century was 52%.
The numbers released include Hurricane Alex, a short-lived storm in January that reached Category 1.
Uncertainties for the seasonal forecast center around a weakening El Niño and possible development of La Niña conditions.
The report says, “The big question marks with this season’s predictions are how quickly the El Niño weakens, as well as what the configuration of SSTs [Sea Surface Temperatures] will look like in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.”
La Niña typically brings less wind shear to the Atlantic allowing storms to form more easily.
If you’ve ever tried to read the text of just about any National Weather Service product, you likely were struck by the fact it was typed in ALL CAPS. Those days are finally coming to an end as the service ends the shouting and moves to mixed-case letters.
The all capital writing dates back to the days when weather reports were sent via teleprinters. These devices only had the ability to type in all caps. Thankfully, the days of teletype are over and one of our favorite government agencies can now send messages properly.
The change will be begin on May 11 and be gradual, only impacting three of the most common products initially: forecast discussions, public information statements and regional weather summaries.
However, severe weather warnings will make the move to mixed case this summer and other forecast and warning products will follow into 2017.
National Weather Service will stop using all caps in its forecasts Farewell teletype, hello mixed-case characters
April 11, 2016 LISTEN UP! BEGINNING ON MAY 11, NOAA’S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS WILL STOP YELLING AT YOU.
New forecast software is allowing the agency to break out of the days when weather reports were sent by “the wire” over teleprinters, which were basically typewriters hooked up to telephone lines. Teleprinters only allowed the use of upper case letters, and while the hardware and software used for weather forecasting has advanced over the last century, this holdover was carried into modern times since some customers still used the old equipment.
Better late than never, but the slow change was not for lack of trying. The National Weather Service has proposed to use mixed-case letters several times since the 1990s, when widespread use of the Internet and email made teletype obsolete. In fact, in web speak, use of capital letters became synonymous with angry shouting. However, it took the next 20 years or so for users of Weather Service products to phase out the last of the old equipment that would only recognize teletype.
Recent software upgrades to the computer system that forecasters use to produce weather predictions, called AWIPS 2 (The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System), are allowing for the change to mixed-case letters. The switch will happen on May 11, after the required 30-day notification period to give customers adequate time to prepare for the change.
“People are accustomed to reading forecasts in upper case letters and seeing mixed-case use might seem strange at first,” said NWS meteorologist Art Thomas. “It seemed strange to me until I got used to it over the course of testing the new system, but now it seems so normal,” he said.
Three forecast products will transition to mixed-case use on May 11, including area forecast discussions, public information statements and regional weather summaries. Severe weather warnings will transition this summer, with other forecasts and warnings transitioning to the new system through early next year.
Upper case letters in forecasts will not become obsolete – forecasters will have the option to use all capital letters in weather warnings to emphasize threats during extremely dangerous situations. Certain forecast products with international implications, such as aviation and shipping, will continue to use upper case letters, per international agreements that standardize weather product formats across national borders.
Utilizing data from the National Weather Service for the period from 2005 to 2014, research firm WeatherDB analyzed what natural hazards pose the greatest risk to Americans.
Heat comes in as the number one most dangerous natural hazard causing 124 deaths and 980 injuries on average per year. Tornadoes, tropical storms / hurricanes, floods and rip currents round out the top five. Check out all the details below.
Carol Rasmussen, NASA Using satellite data on how water moves around Earth, NASA scientists have solved two mysteries about wobbles in the planet’s rotation – one new and one more than a century old. The research may help improve our knowledge of past and future climate. Although a desktop globe always spins smoothly around the axis… Continue reading Two Mysteries About Wobbling Earth Have Been Solved→
The month of March 2016 in Thornton was a bit of a tale of two halves. The first, mild and dry. The second, colder and much, much wetter.
We started out with above normal temperature readings dominating the daily temperatures. In fact 12 of the first 14 days of the month saw high temperatures above average, some well above. Other than a nice bit of rain on the 7th, those first two weeks were dry as well. All were courtesy of strong high pressure staying over the region.
Things cooled down briefly for the next few days and we received a nice bit of snow on the 17th and 18th. However, warm weather returned with back to back 70+ degree days on the 21st and 22nd.
March is however our snowiest month and Mother Nature delivered a walloping reminder of that on the 23rd. Blizzard conditions arrived early in the morning and persisted through the day. Schools and businesses shuttered as did the airport and major interstates.
Cool, unsettled weather conditions finished out the month. Another, light show of snow came on the 26th followed by flurries on the 31st.
Thornton’s overall average temperature for March was 41.4 degrees. This was very close to Denver’s official measurement of 41.6 degrees as taken out at DIA. The average monthly temperature for March is 40.4 degrees.
Thornton saw a maximum mercury reading of 72.4 degrees on the 21st and a low of 13.5 degrees on the 24th. Out at the airport, Denver saw its highest reading of 74 degrees on the 11th and a low of 10 degrees on the 24th.
In terms of precipitation, rain and snow combined to bring Thornton a wet 3.21 inches. The long term average for Denver in March is 0.92 inches.
Denver’s automated system claims a mere 0.90 inches of liquid precipitation at the airport. It is clear that they had a very incorrect reading from the blizzard on the 23rd. Their climate report for the month makes the note, “the precipitation for March 23rd is too low due to undercatch from blizzard. This value is under review. This could change the values below.”
Snowfall was abundant for the month and far exceeded the average of 10.7 inches for Denver. Here in Thornton we received 30.1 inches – our second highest monthly total in 10 years. The airport lagged considerably due to their location out in the middle of nowhere with 18.4 inches.
Thornton, Colorado’s March 2016 temperature summary. (ThorntonWeather.com)Thornton, Colorado’s March 2016 precipitation summary. (ThorntonWeather.com)
From the National Weather Service:
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1255 PM MDT FRI APR 1 2016
...................................
...THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2016...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2016
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
HIGH 84 03/26/1971
LOW -11 03/28/1886
HIGHEST 74 03/11 73 1 81 03/16
LOWEST 10 03/24 11 -1 2 03/05
AVG. MAXIMUM 54.9 54.4 0.5 58.9
AVG. MINIMUM 28.3 26.4 1.9 31.2
MEAN 41.6 40.4 1.2 45.0
DAYS MAX >= 90 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MAX <= 32 1 1.9 -0.9 2
DAYS MIN <= 32 21 23.6 -2.6 12
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.1 -0.1 0
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
MAXIMUM 4.56 1983
MINIMUM 0.03 2012
*THE PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH 23RD IS TOO LOW DUE TO UNDERCATCH
FROM BLIZZARD. THIS VALUE IS UNDER REVIEW. THIS COULD CHANGE
THE VALUES BELOW.
TOTALS 0.90* 0.92 -0.02* 0.79
DAILY AVG. 0.03* 0.03 0.00* 0.03
DAYS >= .01 9 5.9 3.1 5
DAYS >= .10 2 2.4 -0.4 3
DAYS >= .50 0 0.3 -0.3 0
DAYS >= 1.00 0* 0.1 -0.1* 0
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL 0.49* 03/23 TO 03/23 03/19 TO 03/19
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
TOTAL 18.4 10.7
RECORD MARCH 35.2 2003
DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL 716 763 -47 611
SINCE 7/1 4704 5202 -498 4724
COOLING TOTAL 0 0 0 0
SINCE 1/1 0 0 0 0
FREEZE DATES
RECORD
EARLIEST 09/08/1962
LATEST 06/08/2007
EARLIEST 10/07
LATEST 05/05
..........................................................
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 11.7
RESULTANT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 3/238
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 53/340 DATE 03/23
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 59/340 DATE 03/23
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.60
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 3
NUMBER OF DAYS PC 20
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 8
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 48
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM 1 MIXED PRECIP 0
HEAVY RAIN 0 RAIN 0
LIGHT RAIN 4 FREEZING RAIN 0
LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 1
HEAVY SNOW 1 SNOW 4
LIGHT SNOW 8 SLEET 0
FOG 11 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 2
HAZE 3
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
April marks a transition between winter and summer for most of the country but for Denver it is especially true as we can see a stunning variety of weather.
The proverbial April showers are certainly a possibility for Denver. Snow? Tornadoes? Thunderstorms? You bet – all can happen!
For good measure throw in a chance for hail and even dust storms and April gives every type of weather condition you could like – or hate.
April 3 to April 9: This Week in Denver Weather History
As we pointed out in our April weather preview, the month can bring just about any type of weather condition and we see that in our look back at this week in Denver weather history. From powerful, damaging winds to Arctic cold to heavy snowfall this has been an eventful week in the past.
From the National Weather Service:
31-3
In 1979…total snowfall of 6.6 inches was measured at Stapleton International Airport where north winds gusted to 31 mph on the 31st. The greatest accumulation of snow on the ground was 3 inches on the 1st.
31-4
In 1905…much rain and some snow occurred over the 5 days behind an apparent cold front. Precipitation totaled 2.00 inches. There was a thunderstorm on the 3rd. Snowfall totaled 3.0 inches on the 4th. North winds were sustained to 34 mph on the 1st and 2nd and to 30 mph on the 3rd. High temperatures during the period ranged from the upper 30’s to the lower 40’s. Low temperatures were in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s.
1-3
In 1945…snow fell across metro Denver for a total of 51 consecutive hours. While the storm was not accompanied by excessive snow…the long duration made the event a heavy snow producer. Snowfall totaled 10.7 inches in downtown Denver with 9.5 inches recorded at Stapleton Airport. North winds were sustained to 21 mph on the 1st; otherwise winds were not strong. The air mass was very cold for April. The high temperatures of 26 on the 2nd and 17 on the 3rd were record low maximums for the dates. The latter was also a record low maximum for the month. Warm weather following the storm quickly melted the snow.
In 1973…heavy snow fell at Stapleton International Airport where 8.7 inches were measured. Snow began late on the 1st and continued through early morning on the 3rd. Thunder accompanied the snow during the late morning and afternoon of the 2nd. North winds gusted to 33 mph on the 2nd and 37 mph on the 3rd. Snow only accumulated to a depth of 5 inches on the ground due to melting.
In 1977 a foot of snow fell in Boulder and Broomfield. The Denver-Boulder turnpike was closed for an hour after numerous minor traffic accidents. At Stapleton International Airport…snowfall totaled 4.7 inches and southeast winds gusted to 32 mph on the 2nd. The greatest depth of snow on the ground was only 3 inches due to melting.
2-3
In 1955…strong west to southwest winds raked metro Denver on both days. Sustained winds as high as 37 mph with gusts to 60 mph were recorded at Stapleton Airport where the visibility was reduced to 1/4 mile in blowing dust.
In 1974…a heavy snowfall of 6.7 inches was accompanied by northeast wind gusts to 33 mph which produced some blowing snow across metro Denver. Over eastern Colorado many highways and schools were closed due to near-blizzard conditions from the storm.
In 1986…the worst snow storm of the season blasted metro Denver. Heavy snow and high winds combined to close roads… Schools…and airports. Portions of all interstate Highways out of Denver were closed at times. The snow came after an exceptionally mild late winter and early spring; trees and bushes had already bloomed and leafed out. The snow and wind snapped many of these…causing power outages. Total snowfall amounts in metro Denver ranged from 1 to 2 feet with 2 to 3 feet in the foothills. Snowfall totaled 12.6 inches at Stapleton International Airport where north winds gusting to 39 mph reduced the visibility to 1/8 mile in snow and blowing snow. Most of the snow fell on the 3rd when temperatures hovered around 30 degrees for most of the day. The heavy snow halted traffic and closed businesses. A 59- year-old man was found dead from exposure in northwest Denver. The roof of a toy store in Northglenn collapsed. A 100 thousand square foot section of a greenhouse roof collapsed in Golden…destroying over a million dollars worth of plants.
In 2000…a combination of strong instability and moist upslope winds allowed for a heavy…wet spring snowstorm to develop in and near the Front Range foothills. The heaviest snow occurred in southern Jefferson County. Storm totals included: 14 inches near conifer…12 inches near Evergreen and on Floyd hill; 11 inches near Blackhawk…Morrison…and tiny town; 10 inches at Aspen Springs and Eldora Ski Area; 9 inches at Chief Hosa; and 8 inches at both Golden Gate Canyon and Rollinsville. Only 2.1 inches of snow fell at the site of the former Stapleton International Airport. North winds gusted to 36 mph at Denver International Airport on the 2nd.
In 2014…a storm system brought moderate to heavy snow to the Front Range Mountains…Foothills and Urban Corridor. Storm totals in the mountains and foothills included: 21.5 inches…8 miles north of Blackhawk; 15.5 inches near Rollinsville; 15 inches at Aspen Springs; 14.5 inches near Ward; 12 inches…6 miles southwest of Evergreen; 11 inches at Cabin Creek and 12 miles south-southwest of Georgetown; 10 inches at Winter Park; 8 inches near Conifer…Georgetown and Gross Reservoir; with 7.5 inches at Bailey and Intercanyon. In the Urban Corridor…storm totals included: 9.5 inches near Highlands Ranch…7 inches at Boulder… 6 inches near Castle Rock…with 5.5 inches at Lakewood and near Morrison. At Denver International Airport…3.4 inches of snowfall was observed.
2-4
In 1934…snowfall totaled 8.2 inches in downtown Denver from the afternoon of the 2nd through the early morning of the 4th. Most of the snow…6.8 inches…fell on the 3rd. Rain changed to snow behind a strong cold front on the afternoon of the 2nd. The cold front first appeared as a long-cigar shaped squall cloud to the north of the city. Strong north winds at sustained speeds of 33 mph with gusts to 43 mph produced much blowing dust and an abrupt fall in temperature…from a high of 68 on the 2nd to a low of 22 on the 3rd.
In 1964…a major storm dumped 10.9 inches of heavy wet snow on Stapleton International Airport where northeast winds gusted to 35 mph. Most of the snow…10.0 inches…fell on the 3rd.
2-5
In 1918…snowfall totaled 12.4 inches over downtown Denver. Most of the snow fell on the 3rd and 4th. Temperatures were in the 20’s and 30’s. Northwest winds were sustained to 24 mph on the 2nd.
3
In 1872…skies were cloudy and threatening until 11:30 am when it commenced to rain and continued to rain until 3:00 pm…when it turned into heavy snow with a very brisk north wind. Snow continued all night. Telegraph wires were downed between Denver and Cheyenne…and the night report could not be sent. Precipitation (rain and melted snow) measured 0.82 inch.
In 1887…north winds were sustained to 43 mph.
In 1894…northwest winds were sustained to 41 mph with gusts to 50 mph. The warm Chinook winds on the 2nd became a Bora as the temperature warmed to a high of only 52 degrees.
In 1900…southeast winds were sustained to 52 mph with gusts as high as 61 mph.
In 1945…the temperature warmed to only 17 degrees…the all-time record low maximum for the month.
In 1968…a snow storm of unusual severity for so late in the season caused ground blizzard conditions with near zero visibility in snow at times and severe drifting of snow over portions of northeastern Colorado and metro Denver. Highways were blocked to the north of Denver and to Colorado springs. Rain at the start of the storm contributed to power and communications outages. In metro Denver…snowfall totaled 7.0 inches at Stapleton International Airport where north winds gusted to 45 mph.
In 1978…a tornado was sighted by a national weather service observer 3 miles north of Stapleton International Airport near the rocky mountain arsenal. Security police on the arsenal called it a large dust devil…but four commercial airline pilots confirmed the phenomenon as a tornado or funnel cloud.
In 1981…a snowstorm hit northeastern Colorado…dumping 6 to 12 inches of snow in the foothills and 4 to 8 inches on the plains north of Denver. Snowfall totaled only 2.0 inches at Stapleton International Airport where north winds gusted to 24 mph.
In 1985…strong winds of 60 to 70 mph occurred in the foothills. The driver of a car in Nederland was slightly injured when the wind toppled an utility pole onto his vehicle. Northwest winds gusted to 53 mph at Stapleton International Airport where the visibility was briefly reduced to 2 miles in blowing dust.
In 1989…a northwest wind gust to 51 mph was recorded at Stapleton International Airport.
In 2011…high winds developing along the Front Range during the early morning hours. Peak wind gusts included: 92 mph… 7 miles northwest of Berthoud; 75 mph…2 miles west of Castle Rock; and 65 mph…2 miles west of Elbert. West winds gusted to 49 mph at Denver International Airport.
3-5
In 1996…the foothills west of Denver received 6 to 8 inches of new snow. Only 0.8 inch of snow fell at the site of the former Stapleton International Airport…along with some freezing drizzle on the 4th and 5th. North-northeast winds gusted to 30 mph at Denver International Airport on the 3rd.
3-6
In 1898…snowfall totaled 8.7 inches in downtown Denver over the 4 days. Northeast winds were sustained to 48 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph on the 3rd.
In 1983…a prolonged heavy snow storm blanketed the area along with very cold temperatures. The greatest amounts of snow fell in the foothills where 24 to 42 inches were measured. A foot of snow fell in Boulder. Snow fell for 50 consecutive hours at Stapleton International Airport on the 3rd through the 5th with a total snowfall of 8.8 inches and a maximum accumulation on the ground of 6 inches on the 5th. In Denver…the mercury failed to rise above freezing for 3 consecutive days…on the 4th…5th…and 6th…for the first time ever in April. Five daily temperature records were set from the 4th through the 6th. Record low temperatures of 12 degrees occurred on the 5th with 7 degrees on the 6th. Record low maximum temperatures of 25 degrees occurred on the 4th…27 degrees on the 5th… And 28 degrees on the 6th.
Beautiful reflections close out the first day of March 2016. (David Canfield)
The month of March is the start of meteorological spring and while conditions do begin warming, winter weather is certainly out of the question. From hot to cold, snow to rain, the conditions can be very conducive to great pictures as we see in our slideshow.
March in Denver typically means frequent and rapid weather changes. The days grow longer and we start enjoying more sunshine and sometimes summer-like weather. However, on occasion arctic air masses can still force their way south into Colorado dropping temperatures quickly and markedly.
With the active wildlife, increased outdoor activities by us humans, and of course the weather, March imagery contains a wide variety of subjects and extremes.
Slideshow updated March 31, 2016. To learn more about how to send your photo to us for inclusion in the slideshow, see below the slideshow.
Showcasing images captured by ThorntonWeather.com readers as well as some of our own, our monthly slideshow covers the entire gamut of weather-related imagery.
Sunsets, sunrises, wildlife and of course every type of weather condition are vividly depicted in images captured from yours and our cameras.
[flickr_set id=”72157665126811690″]
What is missing in the slideshow above? Your photo!
Our monthly photo slideshow is going to feature images that we have taken but more importantly images that you have captured. The photos can be of anything even remotely weather-related.
Landscapes, current conditions, wildlife, pets, kids. Whimsical, newsy, artsy. Taken at the zoo, some other area attraction, a local park, a national park or your backyard. You name it, we want to see and share it!
Images can be taken in Thornton, Denver or anywhere across the extraordinary Centennial State. We’ll even take some from out of state if we can tie it to Colorado somehow.
We’ll keep the criteria very open to interpretation with just about any image eligible to be shown in our slideshows.
What do you win for having your image in our slideshow? We are just a ‘mom and pop’ outfit and make no money from our site so we really don’t have the means to provide prizes. However you will have our undying gratitude and the satisfaction that your images are shared on the most popular website in Thornton.
To share you images with us and get them included in the slideshow just email them to us or share them with ThorntonWeather.com on any of the various social media outlets. Links are provided below.
Thornton’s Tuesday looks to be a relatively pleasant day with mild temps but with some cloud cover. We also will see a return to wintry weather tonight through tomorrow although it won’t be anything too dramatic.
For today we start with partly sunny skies and we will see a good little bit of cloud cover throughout the day, increasing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be climbing to a pleasant high of 63 degrees.
The next storm system starts making itself felt this afternoon although for the most part, its effects will be limited in our area as it will be mainly to our north. We do see a slight chance for some thunderstorms and shower activity from about 3:00pm through midnight tonight.
As temperatures drop overnight, light snow will be possible in the early morning hours through much of the day tomorrow. Accumulations will be quite light though, perhaps an inch or two for the entire event. The good news is that while temperatures will be cool for the balance of the workweek, they will rebound nicely for the weekend. Get the extended weather forecast here.
The morning of March 23, 2016 saw the blizzard hit with full force. (ThorntonWeather.com)
It is hard to believe so much snow can fall over such a short period of time. Over just more than 12 hours Thornton received 21.7 inches – our biggest snowstorm since 2006. Our east facing webcam captured all the action from start to finish.
The video below starts at midnight on the 23rd with dry conditions. By about 2:00am rain falls but that quickly transitions to snow.
It is after daybreak that the storm gets started in earnest and the heavy snowfall almost entirely obscures the view at points. As is typical in Colorado, by mid-afternoon, we actually start to see some blue skies.
The video covers 19 hours in about 39 seconds. There are a few ‘hiccups’ in the video that you might notice. These were when we had brief power outages.
Weather, natural disasters & climate news and information.
