The early forecast for the 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin calls for above normal levels of activity. (NOAA)
The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University (CSU) has issued its preliminary forecast for the Atlantic hurricane basin for next year. Generated by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, the forecast calls for above normal levels of tropical cyclone activity.
For the 2010 season, Klotzbach and Gray expect an “above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2010 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.” In terms of numbers, they forecast 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).
For the first time, the CSU team is issuing a range for the number of forecast storms instead of a specific number. This is more in line with the forecasts that the National Hurricane Center issues.
In terms of landfall probability for a major hurricane, the team also expects an increased chance. They peg the chance of a Category 3 or greater storm striking the U.S. coastline at 64% which is well above the average of 52%. The U.S. East Coast has a 40% chance of sustaining a hit (versus a 31% average) and the Gulf Coast has a 40% chance as well (versus a 30% average).
NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites moved over the western half of the nation and captured amazing imagery showing how widespread the winter weather was.
A severe winter storm blustered its way across the United States on December 7 and 8, 2009. The storm dumped heavy snow from California to the Great Plains, and fierce winds added to the hazardous conditions. The storm was predicted to continue eastward in midweek, and blizzard warnings were in effect for Great Lakes states as of December 9.
This image shows the blanket of snow laid down by the storm across the West, along with the thick swirl of storm clouds over the Great Plains from North Dakota to Oklahoma. The image is made from a combination of images captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on NASA’s Terra (most of the left side of the image) and Aqua (most of the right side) satellites on December 8.
It certainly could have been a lot worse. The Mile High City escaped relatively unscathed with only minor accumulations of snow from the storm that is now moving to the east. Its lingering effects will continue to be felt overnight however.
Some blue skies are starting to be seen which is a welcome sight and the Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect has been cancelled. Temperatures however remain in the single digits across the Front Range and are below zero in the high country according to the Rocky Mountain Weather Network. With the slight breezes wind chills are easily dipping near the zero degree mark.
Overnight tonight, the mercury will continue to drop and likely enter negative numbers. The only consolation we have is that we do gradually begin to warm up tomorrow and may very well start hitting normal temperatures by Saturday.
The winter storm system that impacted Colorado struck Arizona and California before arriving here and as it travels east it will cover a widespread swath of the nation. Check out the story from the Natural Disasters Examiner for more information. Also be sure to look at the slideshow below of the winter weather.
A massive winter storm covering nearly 1,700 miles has brought Arctic cold, record snowfall and blizzard conditions to a large swatch of the nation. From southwestern Utah, across the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains to northeastern Michigan winter weather warnings have been issued as Old Man Winter arrives two weeks early.
Starting in California, parts of the Sierra Nevada saw up to four feet of snow. In Arizona the storm brought high winds to the Phoenix area which downed power lines leaving 250,000 people without power. Flagstaff, Arizona and Reno, Nevada were covered in blankets of snow.
In Colorado, the entire state was feeling the effects of the storm. The southwestern part of the state was experiencing blizzard conditions while the Denver area, spared significant snowfall, suffered through single digit temperatures and wind chills dipping to 10 degrees below zero.
As if often the case, winter storm can turn deadly and this system has not been an exception. Two people were killed in New Mexico due to traffic accidents on dangerously slick roads and the state’s road crews were struggling to keep up with falling snow.
A variety of winter weather advisories had been issued for Colorado. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Front Range has been cancelled. (NWS)
Update, 1:01pm – The Winter Weather Advisory for the Front Range has been cancelled. The snow may be gone but the bitter cold remains. ThorntonWeather.com recorded a wind chill of -11.2°F at 10:59am!
Temperatures will warm slightly this afternoon before plunging overnight to below zero. Stay warm!
Update, 12/8/09, 6:50am: Bitter cold would be an accurate term to describe the weather the Mile High City is waking up to this morning. Temperatures are in the single digits across the Front Range and wind chills are dipping to zero and below.
The snow we were expecting is going to arrive but it will be slower than expected and likely not as much as original forecast. Snow showers are slowly developing to the west and moving into Denver early this morning but with the severe cold and dry atmosphere, snow is going to have a hard time really getting going.
This image from the Google Earth tour released by California and Google portrays some of the dangers manmade climate change are thought to bring to the state. See below for a link to watch the video. (State of California)
The state of California and Google have been considered at the forefront of the fight against manmade climate change and the two have come together to help the state’s residents visualize the effects of global warming. The new interactive tool, dubbed CalAdapt and part of the Google Earth software, portrays a dismal future for the Sunshine State unless steps are taken to stem man’s effect on the earth.
Narrated by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the tour begins by zooming in and out of the state and highlighting the steps it has taken on its own. Investments in renewable energy, its commitment to reduce greenhouse gases to 1990 levels and the state’s green building program are all featured.
Graphic representation of the effects of manmade climate change are meant to drive home the dangers California faces. From a less reliable water supply to more frequent and more intense wildfires and rising sea levels, the state faces a number of risks according to the video.
The unveiling ceremony was held on Treasure Island in San Francisco Bay. The significance of the location was not lost on Schwarzenegger who said, “Within a century, Treasure Island, this place where we are right now, could be totally under water.”
December 6 to December 12 - This week in Denver weather history
Denver and Colorado are certainly known for their varied weather conditions and as always, looking back at the weather history books highlights that. On these dates we have seen Arctic cold and balmy temperatures in the 70’s. We have seen hurricane force winds and even a rare December thunderstorm. And as one would expect, there has been plenty of snow.
2-17
In 1939…more than 2 weeks of unseasonably warm weather made the month the 3rd warmest on record. Seven daily temperature records were set…including the all time record high temperature for the month of 79 degrees on the 5th. Daytime highs were balmy with 14 days in the 60’s and 70’s. Low temperatures dipped to freezing or below on only 5 days. The period was dry with only a trace of snow on the 12th.
3-15
In 1972…a protracted cold spell held an icy grip on metro Denver when maximum temperatures never reached above freezing for 10 consecutive days from the 3rd through the 12th and minimum temperatures dipped below zero on eleven consecutive days from the 5th through the 15th. Daily low temperature records were set with 15 degrees below zero on the 5th…17 degrees below zero on the 6th… And 18 degrees below zero on the 10th. Daily record low maximum readings were set with 3 degrees on the 6th and 6 degrees on the 9th. The very cold temperatures were caused by 3 to 5 inches of snow cover and a Canadian air mass.
4-6
In 1960…heavy snowfall totaled 12.0 inches over the 3 days with 5.1 inches on the 4th…5.2 inches on the 5th…and 1.7 inches on the 6th. Rain changed to snow early on the 4th and ended by early afternoon. Snow started again early on the 5th and continued through midday on the 6th. West northwest winds gusted to 30 mph on the 4th. Post cold frontal temperatures cooled from a high of 38 degrees on the 4th to a low of 7 degrees below zero on the 6th.
5-6
In 1883…a major snow storm hit the city. Heavy snow fell from 10:00 am on the 5th to 7:30 am on the 6th. The amount of snowfall was not recorded…but precipitation from melted snow totaled 1.75 inches…which would give an estimated snowfall of nearly 18 inches. Temperatures during the storm were in the 30’s…so some of the snow May have melted as it fell. However…railroads were blocked and telegraph lines were downed in all directions. Telephone wires and poles were nearly all broken down. The company manager estimated the damage at 30 thousand dollars. Northeast winds were sustained to 24 mph in the city.
In 1892…heavy snow totaled 6.2 inches in downtown Denver. Most of the snow…6.0 inches…fell on the 6th.
In 2001…high winds developed in the foothills northwest of Denver. Winds gusted to 74 mph at aspen springs. West- northwest winds gusted to 35 mph at Denver International Airport…where the temperature warmed to a high of 55 degrees on the 6th.
5-7
In 1978…a major storm dumped heavy snow across metro Denver. At Stapleton International Airport…snowfall totaled 8.5 inches…northeast winds gusted to 46 mph…and temperatures plunged from a high of 49 degrees on the 5th to a low of only 6 degrees on the 6th. Maximum temperature of 6 degrees on the 7th was a new daily record low maximum reading. Most of the snow…6.7 inches…fell on the 5th.
5-8
In 1983…high winds occurred in and near the foothills each day. Wind gusts to 63 mph were registered in Golden Gate Canyon on the evening of the 5th. On the evening of the 6th…winds knocked down trees…snapped power lines…and blew out windows across metro Denver. Gusts were clocked to 102 mph in southwest metro Denver…while wind gusts to 38 mph were recorded at Stapleton International Airport. On the 7th…winds overturned a tractor trailer near Castle Rock. After midnight on the 8th…gusts to 97 mph were reported in southeast Boulder. Wind speeds of 60 to 70 mph were reported in other parts of metro Denver.
A view from Thornton as of mid-morning on Sunday. Broncos fans should be thankful that they don't have to go to a game at Invesco Field at Mile High with wind chills dipping to zero degrees!
Updated, 12/6/09, 10:40am – The Winter Weather Advisory has been canceled. Light snow will continue to fall through the afternoon but it is just too cold and dry to generate a bunch of snow.
Updated, 12/6/09, 10:30am – It is COLD out there! Temperatures in Thornton right now are around 14 degrees but with the breeze wind chills are approaching zero.
The snow arrived in the Mile High City in the early morning hours and has been falling since then in varying degrees of intensity. Most roads around Denver are snowpacked and likely are pretty slick under the snow given the cold temperatures. The City of Thornton is on accident alert so if you must drive, please be careful.
Generally, we are looking at 3 to 5 inches of snow for today with flurries continuing throughout the day and into tonight. Areas close to the foothills and in the mountains will see more in the range of 6 to 8 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 8:00pm tonight.
As we discussed in our morning forecast, it is simply too cold and dry to generate a great deal of snow. The real story with the system is the bitter cold. Most stations on the Rocky Mountain Weather Network are reporting temperatures in the teens with wind chills near zero making it pretty miserable to be outside no matter where along the Front Range you are.
As always, stay tuned to ThorntonWeather.com for truly local weather for Thornton. If you haven’t done so, be sure to follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook! They are great ways to stay up to date with the latest weather news, forecasts and conditions!
Updated, 12/6/09, 6:05am – While being a bit slower to generate than originally thought, the snow has begun to fall along the Front Range and will continue for much of the day, particularly this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued and will remain in effect until 8:00pm this evening.
The Denver metro area can expect 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation from the system, most of which will be light and fluffy thanks to a lack of moisture and the cold temperatures. Here in Thornton we will probably be at the lighter end of that range. We may see some periods of heavy snow before it begins to taper off this afternoon. A weak upslope will limit the highest accumulations to areas along the foothills and in the mountains.
The story has all the makings of a big news story and a world class whodunit. An illegal break in leads to charges of a global conspiracy. Some of the world’s leading experts tackling one of the most pressing issues of our day and age are forced to launch a defense of themselves. Two experts fall under the specter of investigations, Congress holds hearings into the affair, the Internet is set afire by one phrase – Climategate.
For two weeks the story rages and grows in intensity and yet somehow, the big three television networks are missing in action. Whether the story is just smoke or if there is fire behind it, the hacking of one of the world’s major climate research centers and the fallout from it is big news. By ignoring the story, ABC, CBS and NBC are highlighting the failures of themselves and much of the mainstream media. Perhaps more importantly they are contributing to their own demise and irrelevance.
Since the Climategate story broke two weeks ago today on November 20th, the story has been covered by all cable news networks including FOX News and CNN. Through it all, the big three are nowhere to be found. Not one mention of the event has been made on the networks’ morning or evening news broadcasts.
The story has all the makings of a big news story and a world class whodunit. An illegal break in leads to charges of a global conspiracy. Some of the world’s leading experts tackling one of the most pressing issues of our day and age are forced to launch a defense of themselves. Two experts fall under the specter of investigations, Congress holds hearings into the affair, the Internet is set afire by one phrase – Climategate.
For two weeks the story rages and grows in intensity and yet somehow, the big three television networks are missing in action. Whether the story is just smoke or if there is fire behind it, the hacking of one of the world’s major climate research centers and the fallout from it is big news. By ignoring the story, ABC, CBS and NBC are highlighting the failures of themselves and much of the mainstream media. Perhaps more importantly they are contributing to their own demise and irrelevance.
Since the Climategate story broke two weeks ago today on November 20th, the story has been covered by all cable news networks including FOX News and CNN. Through it all, the big three are nowhere to be found. Not one mention of the event has been made on the networks’ morning or evening news broadcasts.
Hurricane Bill was the most powerful hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season but it never struck the United States. (NASA)
Yesterday marked the end of the 2009 hurricane season and with it comes to a close one of the quietest seasons in recent history. The season featured nine named storms, the fewest since 1997, and for the first time since 2006 no hurricanes made landfall in the United States.
Only two named the storms – Tropical Storm Claudette and Tropical Storm Ida – made landfall in the nation. Those two storms both struck along the central Gulf Coast and brought heavy rain and some flooding but no widespread destruction.
Of the nine named storms, three became hurricanes. Two of those became major hurricanes of Category 3 strength of higher – Hurricane Bill and Hurricane Fred. Bill flirted with the United States East Coast as its waves claimed two lives but turned to the northeast and made landfall in Newfoundland after having weakened considerably. Hurricane Fred rapidly intensified off the west coast of Africa but quickly fell victim to wind shear.
Of the nine named storms, three became hurricanes. Two of those became major hurricanes of Category 3 strength of higher – Hurricane Bill and Hurricane Fred. Bill flirted with the United States East Coast as its waves claimed two lives but turned to the northeast and made landfall in Newfoundland after having weakened considerably. Hurricane Fred rapidly intensified off the west coast of Africa but quickly fell victim to wind shear.
