Weather and Elections – Does Mother Nature play a role in determining the outcome?
We oftentimes hear about how weather can affect voter turnout but is there truly a link? If there is, who does it benefit – Republicans or Democrats? Studies seem to indicate that what might be thought of as an urban myth is indeed true and could in fact play a role in 2024.
In 2005, political science researchers Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford and George Krause completed the first comprehensive study on the correlation between weather and voter turnout. Their paper, “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections” confirmed the conventional wisdom that weather does affect voter turnout, bad weather benefits Republicans and most interestingly, two presidential elections in the last 60 years may have had different results had the weather been different.
Looking back at presidential elections from 1948 to 2008, the study takes into account the weather in 3,000 U.S. counties. They in turn looked at key areas of the nation and how weather, good and bad, affected voter turnout. In the end, the study determined that precipitation is the key weather condition to affect voter turnout.
Thornton, Colorado’s October 2024 Temperature summary. (ThorntonWeather.com)
Mild and dry were the keywords for Thornton for October 2024. The month came in as the warmest and the second driest October of the past 18 years.
While the month lacked any sort of drama in the way of storms, it was most notable for the temperatures. We saw our last 90-degree day of the year on October 2nd and the first 16 days of the month saw 10 days with 80 degree or warmer readings. We didn’t see our first freezing temperature of the season until the 25th of the month, more than two weeks later than normal.
The latter half of the month did cool some but mercury readings remained above normal on most days. Overall, 27 of the 31 days of the month saw above average high temperatures.
Precipitation for the month was meager to say the least. It wasn’t until the 30th that we saw any and even then, it was a paltry 0.03 inches. No snow was recorded.
Thornton’s average temperature for the month came in at 56.1 degrees. That was far above the 50.0 degree 18-year running average for October in Thornton. It also goes into the books as our warmest October over that period, besting the 55.8 degree average of October 2016.
Temperatures ranged from a high of 90.3 degrees on the 2nd of the month down to a low of 29.2 degrees on the morning of the 31st.
The Mile High City, as officially measured at Denver International Airport, was even warmer. Their October average temperature came in at 59.1 degrees. That was far above Denver’s long term October average of 51.1 degrees. The month goes into the Denver weather record books as the second warmest on record with October 1950 holding on as the warmest (59.9 degrees).
Temperatures at the airport ranged from a high of 89 degrees on the 2nd to a low of 24 degrees on the 31st.
As noted above, precipitation was almost non-existent with only 0.03 inches recorded. This was far below the 0.92 inch running average Thornton has seen in October over the past 18 years. October 2024 goes into the books as the second driest October during that time, second only to October 2021 (0.02”).
Out at the airport, Denver saw 0.09 inches of precipitation, all coming on the 18th of the month. This was far short of the 0.99 inches the Mile High City averages in October. That makes October 2024 the 11th driest October ever recorded in Denver.
Over the past 18 years, Thornton has averaged 3.8 inches of snow in October. This year, none was recorded. That is not, however, all that unusual as seven other Octobers over the past 18 years saw no snow as well.
Similarly, out at DIA, Denver saw no snowfall for the month. This ties with 20 other Octobers since 1882 in Denver with no snow. On average, Denver records 4.1 inches during the month.
The weather during the month of November in Denver metro area can offer just about anything. While it is normally a quiet month, it can be prone to extremes.
November has historically been one of Denver’s snowiest months and major snowstorms are not entirely uncommon. However conditions can also be quite dry.
Temperatures during the month continue to cool as we get closer to winter and by the end of the month the low temperatures routinely dip to 20 degrees or below. At times it can in fact bring conditions more like what we see in January.
Better late than never? Unseasonably warm and dry conditions have been the hallmark of October so far. Today, we finally got a taste of the temperatures we normally expect to see.
Just before sunrise, both Thornton and Denver saw temperatures drop to 32 degrees marking the first freeze of the season. This comes more than 2 1/2 weeks after the average date of the first freeze in Denver of October 7th.
With that reading the book, we do continue to wait for our first snow of the season. That may come early to mid-week next week.
Thornton, Colorado’s September 2024 temperature summary. (ThorntonWeather.com)
Mother Nature can be so fickle. While September brings the start of autumn, she was intent on keeping summer rolling along and in doing so, delivered mercury readings well above normal.
The month was a calm one, lacking much of any kind of drama beyond the temperatures. We started out very warm and dry for the first three days then, finally, a little bit of relief arrived. Temperatures cooled a bit and we received a nice shot of rain on the 4th and 5th.
For the next two weeks, dry conditions dominated with no precipitation. Over the period temperatures remained well above normal.
Finally, on the 21st, we saw some relief and temperatures on the 21st and 22nd were only in the 60s. We also received a welcome shot of rain totaling 0.81 inches.
Temperatures rebounded on the 23RD and dry weather continued through the end of the month.
In the end, Thornton saw an average temperature for September 2024 of 67.9 degrees. This was far above the running 17-year average for the month of 64.2. In fact, it was Thornton’s warmest September over the period. Temperatures in Thornton ranged from a high of 93.1 degrees on the 3rd down to a low of 42.7 degrees on the 23rd.
For Denver, as measured at Denver International Airport, the month was a good bit warmer recording an average of 70.0 degrees. This too was far above the month’s average of 64.8 degrees. Further, it put September 2024 into the books as the Mile High City’s warmest September on record.
Thornton really only saw two rain events but both were pretty decent ones, dropping 1.26 inches into the rain bucket for the month. That was a bit below our September average of 1.48 inches.
Denver recorded very similar numbers with 1.24 inches of precipitation. This was just shy of the Mile High City’s September average of 1.35 inches.
Neither Thornton nor Denver recorded any snow during September 2024.
With the first full month of fall here, October usually brings one of the quietest weather months in the Denver area with plenty of mild, sunny days and clear, cool nights.
October is historically the second sunniest month and conditions are generally calm.
However we also will usually see our first taste of winter during the month with the first freeze and first snowfall of the season. Temperatures as well will start to drop and by the end of the month the average nighttime lows are below freezing.
It may be the end of September, but Mother Nature is intent on keeping the summer heat coming.
As measured at Denver International Airport, Denver hit a high temperature today of 92 degrees. This ties the record high for September 29 last set in 1892.
The Mile High City also tied the record for the warmest low temperature for the date. The mercury only descended to 61 degrees, tying the record mark last set in 1981.
Here in Thornton, we matched DIA with a high of 92 degrees. We were, however, a good bit cooler with a low of 55 degrees. At Stapleton, where historical Denver weather records were taken from 1950 to 1995, the high was 90 degrees and the low 56 degrees.
As measured at Denver International Airport, the Mile High City hit an official high temperature of 93 degrees today. That easily breaks the old record high for September 26 of 90 degrees set way back in 1892.
Here in Thornton, we were a bit cooler with a high of 91 degrees recorded. At Stapleton, where historical Denver weather records were taken from 1950 to 1995, the high was 90 degrees.
We entered the month on a three-month streak of warmer, drier than normal conditions. The hope was that August would bring some relief but it did not.
The first week of the month saw mercury readings all above the 90 degree mark. We did, however, record some minor precipitation during that period. Three days of below normal mercury readings gave us some hope but that was short-lived.
The final three weeks of the month saw temperatures routinely above average with only a few exceptions. We did see a few days with decent precipitation but those were uncommon as compared to most other days which remained dry.
Thornton’s average temperature for August 2024 came in at 73.5 degrees. This was nearly two degrees above our 18-year running average for the month of 71.8 degrees. Our warmest reading of 99 degrees came on two days, the 2nd and the 17th. The second to last day of the month, the 30th, saw our coolest reading of the month at 52 degrees.
By comparison, Denver continued to show its warm bias. As measured at Denver International Airport, the Mile High City’s average temperature for the month came in at 75.6 degrees. That is well above their long term average of 72.9 degrees and puts the year into the books as the 5th warmest August on record for Denver. During August 2024, the city recorded a maximum of 102 degrees on the 4th and a low of 50 degrees on the 30th.
The National Weather Service noted that summer 2024 (June, July, August) will go into the history books as the second warmest summer on record (since 1872). It, of course, bears repeating that since the service moved Denver’s official station to DIA in 1984, records are severely skewed and not particularly comparable to those taken at the previous official stations.
In terms of precipitation, the month did end up drier than normal but, thankfully, not by a lot. Thornton recorded 1.07 inches in our rain bucket. This was below the 18-year average of 1.24 inches for the month.
Out at the airport, it was a bit drier with 0.92 inches being recorded for Denver. That is well below their August average of 1.58 inches.
Following an August that was unseasonably warm, we find ourselves heading into September hoping for relief. The month can bring plenty of rain and even our first snow of the season but more often than not, it is one of the most pleasant along the Colorado Front Range.
As temperatures start to drop, September usually reminds us that summer is at an end and fall is now here. Sunshine is predominant though as the month actually has the highest percentage of sun out of any month. Sunny days and clear, cool nights are the standard weather pattern for the month.
The month can bring extremes however. We will of course forever remember 2013’s devastating floods brought on by record-setting rain. Longtime residents might remember September 1971 which brought over 17 inches of snowfall.
With the first full month of fall here, October usually brings one of the quietest weather months in the Denver area with plenty of mild, sunny days and clear, cool nights.
