Astronomical winter arrives in Thornton early tomorrow morning and with the solstice also comes the shortest day of the year.
Winter officially begins at 3:44am on Wednesday, December 21, 2016. The Winter Solstice occurs when the North Pole is tilted at its furthest from the sun – 23.5 degrees away. This results in the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
Here in Denver, with sunrise at 7:18am and sunset at 4:39pm, our day Wednesday is 9 hours, 21 minutes and 14 seconds long. The day after it will be three seconds longer and each day from now through to the Summer Solstice in June will get gradually longer as well.
While we have a short day on the winter solstice, it is nothing like what will be experienced in the Arctic Circle. Areas north of there to the North Pole will have no direct sunlight at all. Conversely, areas south of the Antarctic Circle toward the South Pole will have 24 hours of daylight and have a midnight sun.
Did you know that there is a difference between the astronomical seasons that we are discussing here and meteorological seasons?
Meteorological seasons differ slightly and are geared toward matching the calendar with the annual temperature cycle. This is done primarily for meteorological observing and forecasting and in many ways it is more logical than the astronomical seasons.
For the Northern Hemisphere, the meteorological spring covers the months of March, April and May. Summer brings the hottest months of the year and so meteorological summer is June, July and August. Meteorological fall then is September, October and November followed by the coldest months of December, January and February as meteorological winter.
The month of December brings with it the official start of winter and oftentimes, colder and snowier weather conditions. It however can also offer unseasonably warm temperatures and bone dry conditions. Given our recent mild and dry weather, we are certainly hoping for a change in the coming month.
Overall December’s monthly mean temperature of 30.0 degrees (1981 – 2010 averages) makes it our coldest month. Snow is always on everyone’s mind this time of year but December is only our 3rd snowiest month behind March and November with an average of 8.5 inches of the white stuff.
We closed out November quite wet and chilly and that is expected to continue into the first part of December. Long term models then point to a continuation of above normal precipitation but near normal temperatures.
We thought the daily high temperature record for November 16 would fall today and indeed it did. However the Mile High City also managed to tie the record for the warmest temperature ever recorded during the month of November.
At 1:24pm the station at Denver International Airport reported a mercury reading of 80 degrees.
This easily bested the previous record high temperature for November 16 of 77 degrees set in 1941.
Perhaps more notably, the reading also ties the all-time record high temperature for the month of November. The old mark was 80 degrees set on November 8, 2006. This is in turn the latest in the year an 80 degree reading has been tallied.
Here in Thornton, we were a bit warmer than DIA. Our temperature topped out at 81.5 degrees at 1:02pm.
Showcasing the wide swings of weather we experience here in Colorado is the fact that after these records today, high temperatures tomorrow won’t go very far into the 40s. Check out forecast for the latest.
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2016 will “very likely” be the hottest year on record, according to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization. According to a news release from the WMO, 2016 will likely eclipse the previous hottest year, 2015. “Another year. Another record. The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016,” said WMO Secretary-General… Continue reading 2016 ‘Likely’ Hottest Year Ever: WMO→
The weather during the month of November in Denver metro area can offer just about anything. While it is normally a quiet month, it can be prone to extremes.
November is Denver’s second snowiest month and major snowstorms are not entirely uncommon. However conditions can also be quite dry.
Temperatures during the month continue to cool as we get closer to winter and by the end of the month the low temperatures routinely dip to 20 degrees or below. At times it can in fact bring conditions more like what we see in January.
Certainly given how warm and dry we were in October, we could use some relief. Will that happen?
High pressure was the dominant weather feature for the month of October and that led to a pattern that blocked off moisture and kept temperatures well above normal. Record-setting highs were made while precipitation was a rare event.
The historical average monthly temperature for the month of October in Denver is 50.9 degrees. That number was easily eclipsed. Here in Thornton we saw an average temperature of 55.8 degrees. Out at DIA where Denver’s official numbers are kept, it was much warmer with an average of 57.8 degrees.
Both averages for October 2016 were far above normal. Officially the month was so warm it became the fourth warmest October on record in Denver. The number one spot was quite secure though with an average of 59.9 degrees back in 1950.
Temperatures in Thornton ranged from a high of 84.8 degrees on the 16th down to a low of 27.1 degrees on the morning of the 20th. Out at the airport, the warmest reading was 86 degrees and the lowest 25 degrees, both on the same days that Thornton saw its warmest and coldest readings.
Denver recorded four record daily high temperatures during the month. The first record high came on the 15th of the month to be followed by records on the 27th and 28th then a tie for the record high on the 31st.
In terms of precipitation, the same high pressure that kept things warm, kept things dry as well. Thornton recorded a mere 0.43 inches in its rain bucket, all during the first half of the month. The airport was a bit drier with 0.26 inches recorded.
On average Denver receives 1.02 inches of precipitation in October so both locations were far below normal. While it was certainly dry, it was not so much so that it was a record-setter as the month failed to make it into the top 20 driest Octobers.
No snow was recorded during the month so we are still awaiting that first event of the season. This however is not entirely unusual as historically, 27% of Denver’s October fail to see any of the white stuff.
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
244 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2016
...................................
...THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2016...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2016
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
HIGH 89 10/16/1991
10/10/1910
LOW -2 10/29/1917
HIGHEST 86 10/16 83 3 87 10/11
LOWEST 25 10/20 22 3 28 10/28
AVG. MAXIMUM 74.5 65.3 9.2 70.1
AVG. MINIMUM 41.2 36.6 4.6 42.8
MEAN 57.8 50.9 6.9 56.5
DAYS MAX >= 90 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.4 -0.4 0
DAYS MIN <= 32 3 8.5 -5.5 1
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
MAXIMUM 4.17 1969
MINIMUM T 1934
TOTALS 0.26 1.02 -0.76 1.76
DAILY AVG. 0.01 0.03 -0.02 0.06
DAYS >= .01 3 5.3 -2.3 6
DAYS >= .10 1 2.4 -1.4 3
DAYS >= .50 0 0.5 -0.5 2
DAYS >= 1.00 0 0.1 -0.1 0
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL 0.22 10/05 TO 10/06 10/20 TO 10/21
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
TOTAL MM MM
TOTALS 0.0 4.0
DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL 231 440 -209 274
SINCE 7/1 310 581 -271 301
COOLING TOTAL 17 5 12 16
SINCE 1/1 878 769 109 877
FREEZE DATES
RECORD
EARLIEST 09/08/1962
LATEST 06/08/2007
EARLIEST 10/07
LATEST 05/05
..................................................
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 10.0
RESULTANT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 4/197
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 33/260 DATE 10/04
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 42/270 DATE 10/03
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.50
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 10
NUMBER OF DAYS PC 17
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 4
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 40
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM 0 MIXED PRECIP 0
HEAVY RAIN 0 RAIN 1
LIGHT RAIN 3 FREEZING RAIN 0
LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
FOG 4 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 3
HAZE 0
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
October will end with Denver not having seen any snow accumulation at all during the month. While that, coupled with the overall lack of precipitation is concerning, not having snow is not at all unusual.
On average, the Mile High City receives 4.2 inches during October.
However, since record-keeping began in 1882, the month failed to yield any snow at all in 19 years since. Further, in another 17 of those years we only received a trace.
This means that in 27% of the past 134 years, we saw essentially no accumulating snow in October. So, the fact we won’t have received any this month is not uncommon.
The average date for our first snowfall is October 18th so we aren’t running all that far behind. The earliest seasonal snowfall came on September 3, 1961 and the latest on November 21, 1934.
We have been exceedingly dry, really since the first part of June.
In October, Denver has recorded a mere 0.26 inches of precipitation while here in Thornton we have fared better with 0.43 inches. On average we expect to see 0.97 inches so both locations are well below normal.
Perhaps more notable than the lack of moisture is the temperatures which have been unseasonably warm.
As of right now, the average temperature for the month is at 57.2 degrees in Denver, 55.1 degrees in Thornton. This is running far above the historical October average temperature of 50.9 degrees.
Depending on temperatures between now and the end of the month, it is looking likely that October 2016 will finish somewhere in the top five or six warmest Octobers on record.
What will this winter have in store for Thornton? Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center have released their outlook and for the Front Range, it doesn’t hold much in the way of clues.
The CPC does show odds favor above average temperatures for much of Colorado for the period from December through February. In terms of precipitation, the agency gives equal chances of near average, well above average, or well below average precipitation for most of the state. The one exception is the southern third of Colorado which they peg at having above average chances of a drier than normal year.
From NOAA:
U.S. Winter Outlook predicts warmer, drier South and cooler, wetter North
Drought expected to persist in California and expand in the Southeast
October 20, 2016 – Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. If La Nina conditions materialize, forecasters say it should be weak and potentially short-lived.
“This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”
Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include theArctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and create nor’easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events in the Pacific Northwest.
The 2016 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Precipitation
Wetter than normal conditions are most likely in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western Alaska
Drier than normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S. and southern Alaska.
Temperature
Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S., extending northward through the central Rockies, in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in northern New England.
Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from Montana to western Michigan.
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
Drought
Drought will likely persist through the winter in many regions currently experiencing drought, including much of California and the Southwest
Drought is expected to persist and spread in the southeastern U.S. and develop in the southern Plains.
New England will see a mixed bag, with improvement in the western parts and persistence to the east.
Drought improvement is anticipated in northern California, the northern Rockies, the northern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. However, La Nina winters tend to favor above average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies and below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic.
NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. Empowering people with actionable forecasts and winter weather tips is key to NOAA’s effort to build aWeather-Ready Nation.
With the first full month of fall here, October usually brings one of the quietest weather months in the Denver area with plenty of mild, sunny days and clear, cool nights. Given the lack of precipitation of the last few months though, we certainly would welcome some moisture.
October is historically the second sunniest month and conditions are generally calm.
However we also will usually see our first taste of winter during the month with the first freeze and first snowfall of the season. Temperatures as well will start to drop and by the end of the month the average nighttime lows are below freezing.
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The month of September was overall a pleasant one however that came at a price. A very distinct lack of precipitation led to dry conditions, a trend that had started earlier in the summer.
High pressure was the general rule for the month and that helped to ensure that any significant weather potential was steered away from the state. A few troughs and cold fronts mixed things up but in the end, we only saw precipitation on three days during the month and the amounts were negligible.
Thornton’s average temperature for the month came in at 63.7 degrees. This was just slightly above Denver’s long term average for September of 63.4 degrees. Out at the airport where Denver’s official measurements are taken, it was a good bit warmer with an average of 66.0 degrees.
Temperatures here ranged from a high of 91.6 degrees on the 5th of the month down to a low of 39.8 degrees on the 24th. DIA recorded a maximum of 93 degrees, also on the 5th, and a low of 37 degrees on the 10th.
In terms of precipitation, Thornton saw a measly 0.05 inches fall into our rain bucket. The airport fared far better with 0.28 inches. However, both measurements were well below the September average for Denver of 0.96 inches. The reading in Thornton would have been low enough to tie for the third driest reading in Mile High City history.
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016
...................................
...THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2016...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2016
WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S
VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
HIGH 97 09/06/2013
09/05/2013
09/04/1995
LOW 17 09/29/1985
HIGHEST 93 09/05 91 2 92 09/02
LOWEST 37 09/10 35 2 44 09/19
AVG. MAXIMUM 82.3 78.5 3.8 85.2
AVG. MINIMUM 49.7 48.3 1.4 53.5
MEAN 66.0 63.4 2.6 69.4
DAYS MAX >= 90 6 3.4 2.6 7
DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.8 -0.8 0
DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 PRECIPITATION (INCHES) RECORD MAXIMUM 5.61 2013 MINIMUM T 1892 1944 TOTALS 0.28 0.96 -0.68 0.11 DAILY AVG. 0.01 0.03 -0.02 0.00 DAYS >= .01 4 6.5 -2.5 3
DAYS >= .10 1 3.3 -2.3 0
DAYS >= .50 0 0.6 -0.6 0
DAYS >= 1.00 0 0.1 -0.1 0
GREATEST
24 HR. TOTAL 0.18 09/12 TO 09/12 08/31 TO 09/01
SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
TOTAL 0.0 1.3
RECORD SEPTEMBER 17.2 1971
DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL 64 125 -61 9
SINCE 7/1 79 141 -62 27
COOLING TOTAL 99 76 23 148
SINCE 1/1 861 764 97 861
FREEZE DATES
RECORD
EARLIEST 09/08/1962
LATEST 06/08/2007
EARLIEST 10/07
LATEST 05/05
.....................................................
WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 9.5
RESULTANT WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 2/171
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 37/170 DATE 09/23
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 51/200 DATE 09/04
SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.40
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 13
NUMBER OF DAYS PC 13
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 4
AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 45
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM 6 MIXED PRECIP 0
HEAVY RAIN 0 RAIN 0
LIGHT RAIN 6 FREEZING RAIN 0
LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
FOG 4 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 3
HAZE 4
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
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