As Christmas gets closer everyone always wonders if we are going to get the proverbial white Christmas. Unfortunately, if you look at Denver and Thornton weather history, the chances arent all that good but it also depends on what you define as a white Christmas. December just isnt that snowy of a month, ranking as only the fourth snowiest (behind March, November and April) so historically we have a bit of a disadvantage.
These extraordinary satellites will provide everything from lightning mapping and improved hurricane forecasting to monitoring of sea surface temperatures. The press release from NOAA provides some of the details on this exciting endeavor:
NOAA, NASA Select Contractor to Build GOES-R Series Spacecraft
New Geostationary Satellites Will Give Forecasters Better Information
December 2, 2008
NOAA and NASA officials announced today Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, of Denver, Colo., has been selected to build two spacecraft for NOAA’s next generation geostationary satellite series, GOES-R. There are two options, each providing for one additional satellite. Scheduled for launch in 2015, the new satellites will provide more data in greater detail which is essential to creating accurate weather forecasts.
The contract has a total value of $1.09 billion for the two satellites. A separate contract to build the GOES-R ground system, which receives, processes and distributes data transmitted from the spacecraft, will be announced later in 2009, officials said.
“GOES-R, with its highly advanced instruments and sensors, will provide about 50 times more weather and climate data than is available with NOAA’s current fleet of geostationary satellites,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NOAA Satellite and Information Service. “The American public will see real life-saving benefits from this satellite system with more timely forecasts and warnings for severe weather.”
GOES-R will improve the monitoring of sea surface temperatures and also provide more data to hurricane forecasters by giving sharper images of storms every 30 seconds, instead of every 7.5 minutes as the current satellites provide.
Additionally, GOES-R will carry a first-of-its-kind instrument called the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, which will quickly locate all lightning flashes occurring anytime, anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. The lightning mapper will aid in predicting tornadoes, which often spawn from lightning-packed thunderstorms.
Other key benefits expected from GOES-R include: greater monitoring of surface temperatures in metropolitan areas to improve warnings for heat stress, and better data to bolster the forecasts for unhealthy air quality days. GOES-R will feature advanced solar monitoring instruments for space weather forecasts and warnings of solar storms. These storms endanger billions of dollars worth of commercial and government assets in space and cause power surges for the satellite-based electronics and communications industry.
George Morrow, director of Flight Project for NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. said, “NASA Goddard is excited to be NOAA’s partner in this next generation GOES development and we look forward to delivering an outstanding observatory for their operational use.”
NOAA funds, manages and will operate the GOES-R program. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center oversees the acquisition of the GOES-R spacecraft and instruments for NOAA.
Sunday, November 30th marks the close of the hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it was one for the record books. The season marks one of the more active in the last 64 years overall and resulted in a record number of consecutive storms striking the United States.
According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D, the lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA, “This year’s hurricane season continues the current active hurricane era and is the tenth season to produce above-normal activity in the past 14 years.” It is important to note however that comprehensive record keeping of hurricanes has only been occurring for the last 64 years so there is not a great deal of data to draw upon.
In all, a total of 16 named storms formed this season, eight of which were hurricanes. Five of those were major hurricanes of category 3 strength or higher. An average hurricane season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. In May at the start of the 2008 season, NOAA forecasters predicted 12 to 16 named storms and then in August upped their predictions to 14 to 18 named storms. This represents the first time in recent years forecasters had accurately bracketed the number of storms. In 2007 NOAA predicted 10 hurricanes and only six formed. The year prior, 2006, nine hurricanes were forecasted by NOAA but only five formed. In 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in the worst U.S. natural disaster, the forecasts underestimated storm activity.
2008 ties as the fourth most active season in terms of named storms (16) and major hurricanes (5). It also tied as fifth most active in terms of hurricanes overall (8) since 1944.
From NOAA, most notably:
For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).
Bell attributes the active season to ongoing increased activity since 1995, lingering La Nina effects and warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean effects.
Here is a fascinating video from NOAA using satellite imagery of the entire hurricane season:
December brings with it the official start to winter and at the same time we find ourselves hoping we get moisture in the near future. As of this writing, the mountain snowpack in all basins are well below normal, with some as low as 27% of normal. Here in town our our annual snowfall is well below normal as well. In Colorado the snow season starts on July 1st and between that date and November 30th, Denver averages 16.9 inches of snow. Thus far, ThorntonWeather.com has measured a meager 0.2 inch and the official total for Denver taken at the site of the old Stapleton International Aiport stands at 0.8 inch!
The 2008 tornado season was historical for its ferocity. Record breaking numbers of twisters struck Tornado Alley with a frequency not seen in years. In June, north central and western Kansas were ground zero for tornado outbreaks that went on for days.
ThorntonWeather.com continues to be granted special access to the Discovery Channel’s Storm Chasers (Sunday’s @ 8:00pm MST) footage. In this coming Sunday’s episode, the crew finds itself right in the thick of things. The episode guide says:
No Place Like Kansas – Nov. 23 at 10 p.m. ET/PT
With the DOW and all the chase vehicles up and running again, the team finds themselves hunting in the same territory as the rival TVN crew. Tornadoes are forming all over western Kansas on what looks like the biggest day of the season.
This week’s sneak peak – A funnel cloud begins to form in the skies over Quinter, Kansas as the the Storm Chasers scramble to approach it.
Also new is our Wildland Fire Activity page that shows an integrated Google Map of all recent major wildland fires in the continental United States. You can click on any incident to get more details. Below the map is the latest wildland fire news from FireHouse.com. In light of the recent fires in California, this is a timely addition. Special thanks to one of our regular visitors, David Canfield, for this suggestion.
Both items are now available under the Almanac menu item on the left.
Do you have an idea of something you would like to see added or improved on ThorntonWeather.com? Don’t be shy! Let us know! Click here to contact us.
According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), much of the United States is experiencing below normal temperatures thus far in 2008. In all, through the end of October, over 80% of the continental United States is experiencing normal or below normal temperatures.
Certainly we cannot draw any real conclusions about manmade climate change or global warming from these isolated incidents but they do have to make you wonder.
We continue to be granted sneak peeks of new episodes of the Discovery Channel’s Storm Chaser’s (Sunday’s @ 8:00pm MST). Last week corn husks fell from the sky on the scout crew after a tornado had passed and Reed and the TornadoVideos.net team chased a twister in the dark.
As the show chronicles the 2008 storm season, it is now getting into what was the most intense period of the summer. This coming Sunday’s episode guide says:
NIGHTMARE ON DOW STREET – Nov. 9 at 10 p.m. ET/PT
Halfway into the season, TIV1 returns to action, and the whole team heads first toward Oklahoma and then into Arkansas. Monster hail storms batter the fleet, but the vehicles forge ahead as tornadoes start touching down all across this part of the Great Plains. Everyone gets to feast on the tornado bounty, but after dark, a twister chases the chasers in the streets of Stuttgart, Arkansas.
This week’s episode sneak peek – The storm chasers race to outrun a devastating twister as it quickly catches up to the team’s TIV-1 vehicle in this clip from Storm Chasers.
Conventional wisdom in the Denver area is that it always seems to rain or snow on Halloween. I know as a kid it seemed like Mother Nature always put a damper on our trick or treating.
But, is there any truth to this urban legend? Or is this just one of those times where our memory doesn’t serve us quite right?
This year it certainly looks like we have nothing to worry about but the National Weather Service has been kind enough to compile weather statistics just for Halloween. As it turns out, the thought of snow and rain on Octboer 31st isn’t just in our minds!
The dates for the 11th annual National Storm Chaser Convention have been announced. The event will be held February 13th to the 15th at the Red Lion Inn in Parker. As usual there looks to be a great lineup of speakers and of course it will certainly be informative and fun. The agenda is still being finalized but some of the highlights announced thus far include:
This year’s convention promises to be the biggest and best yet! The convention is held each year in Denver, Colorado, and is geared for you, the storm chaser, spotter and storm enthusiast, to be the premiere gathering of the year. Because of the intense severe storm and hurricane season that 2008 brought, we have been able to gather some of the best scientists and forecasters in the world to present at this year’s convention. Dr Steve Lyons, hurricane expert for The Weather Channel, will be this year’s keynote speaker. From the National Hurricane Center, we welcome lead forecaster Dr Jack Bevens.
On the severe storm side, we welcome Dr Greg Forbes from The Weather Channel, and are also excited to welcome back Dr Howie Bluestein. We are also excited to have Rich Thompson, lead forecaster at the Storm Prediction center, as well as meteorologist Jon Davies. Tim Marshall will once again bring is attention getting presentation to our convention. We have several other speakers that you won’t want to miss!!! So sign up early and tell all your friends to come to the 2009 National Storm Chaser Convention.