Category Archives: Climatology

State Lucky Thus Far – Dry Months Ahead According to NOAA

Dry Months Ahead?Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist affiliated with the University of Colorado and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to promise a dry winter.  In an article today in the Rocky Mountain News he says, “I think we should count our blessings. We got lucky” in regards to the amount of moisture the state has seen thus far.

According to Wolter, the La Nina weather pattern present in the Pacific will persist resulting in storms tracking north of our state.  The good news though is that snowpack thus far is above normal statewide and even if their predictions bear out, we should be okay come summer.  Here are the latest readings as of today:

           S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E 
  
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites 
                    As of MONDAY: JANUARY 14 , 2008 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
STATE                                                      PERCENT OF AVERAGE 
  RIVER BASIN                                     Number   Snow Water  Accum 
                                                 of Sites  Equivalent  Precip 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO 
  GUNNISON RIVER BASIN ......................... 11 of 13     144       137 
  UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ................... 27 of 29     119       124 
  SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN ..................... 15 of 15     105       101 
  LARAMIE AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS ........ 13 of 13     101       109 
  YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER BASINS ................. 17 of 19     102       111 
  ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN .........................  5 of  9     141       124 
  UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN .......................  9 of 13     158       144 
  SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS 
     AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS ................. 14 of 16     153       135

We of course hope the forecasters are wrong just like they have been about the last two hurricane seasons

Please click here for the full Rocky Mountain News Article. 

Hurricane Season Ends – Questions to Answer Though

Record low hurricane seaso for 2007The 2007 hurricane season officially ended on November 30th and in the Atlantic, a total of 14 named storms were produced, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes.  The good news is that only one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions struck the United States so we escaped relatively unscathed.  This does however make one wonder about the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.  This is the second year in a row that predictions indicated above normal activity when the opposite turned out to be true. 

It is notable that as recently as NOAA’s August hurricane update they said: 

NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

 There’s that word again – CONSENSUS!  Let’s take a look at the facts:

  • – The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was below normal and tied for 2002 as the most inactive since the El Nino depressed 1997 season in terms of storm energy.
  • – The North Atlantic was not the only ocean that experienced quiet tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has to go back to 1977 to find lower levels of cyclone energy as measured by the ACE hurricane energy metric. Even more astounding, 2007 will be the 4th slowest year in the past half-century (since 1958) .
  • – Fewest Northern Hemisphere hurricane days since 1977 – the 3rd Lowest since 1958 (behind 1977 and 1973).
  • – When combined, the 2006 and 2007 Atlantic hurricane seasons were the least active since 1993 and 1994.

ThorntonWeather.com has to wonder – If we can’t accurately predict short term climatological events such as hurricanes, how can those that make up a “consensus” accurately predict and gauge man-made climate change on a global scale? 

Click here to view NOAA’s 2007 hurricane season summary.

Meteorologist: Colorado drought still possible despite storms

Drought?An interesting article from USA Today today discusses the fact that despite the snow we have recently enjoyed, we can’t rule out drought in 2008.  In part it says:

Despite a series of snowstorms that rescued ski areas in Colorado just before the holidays and built up the below-average snowpack, experimental forecaster Klaus Wolter says there still is a possibility of drought next year.

“My experimental forecast guidance for the late winter season (January-March 2008) continues to show a pervasive tendency for dry conditions over the full domain. Half of Colorado, and most of Arizona and New Mexico appear most likely to experience a dry season, raising the specter of renewed drought in currently drought-free regions,” said Wolter.

In other words, we can’t count on the wet weather to continue.  It is important to note that while the southern and central mountains have had lots of snow, the South Platte River basin, from which the Front Range gets most of its water, is still below normal levels.  To read the full article, click here

Do as I say, not as I do. United Nations meeting on climate change will cause as much pollution as 20,000 cars in a year.

We found this amusing – a little tidbit from Bloomberg News:

Government officials and activists flying to Bali, Indonesia, for the United Nations meeting on climate change will cause as much pollution as 20,000 cars in a year.

The delegates each will produce an average 4.07 metric tons of carbon dioxide, or CO2, to reach the resort island 950 kilometers (600 miles) from Jakarta, according to estimates e- mailed to Bloomberg by the UN agency holding the conference.

You can read the news report by clicking here.

NOAA Still Sees Above Average Temperatures for Most of the U.S. and Below Normal Precipitation Across the South. Colorado Expected to be Warmer, Average Precipitation.

WinterNOAA released its final 90 day winter forecast and little changed from earlier predictions. For Colorado that means the likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures, particularly in the southern part of the state. In terms of precipitation, they foresee equal chances for normal, above and below normal moisture while southern Colorado remains dry.

“Although we are expecting a warmer than normal winter, we do believe there will be fluctuations of warm weather and typical winter weather throughout the season,” said Edward O’Lenic, chief, forecast operations, NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “We encourage people to review winter weather risks for their particular area and information available online to help keep them safe when events do occur.”

Temperature map
Winter temperature outlook.
Click for larger image.

Precipitation map
Winter precipitation outlook.
Click for larger image.

Click here to read the complete report from NOAA.

The Weather Channel founder calls global warming the “greatest scam in history.”

Global WarmingJohn Coleman let his feelings be known on a blog recently and made it clear he didn’t buy into the hype over man-made climate change. Among his comments:

It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM. Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data to create an allusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental whacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the research to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. Their friends in government steered huge research grants their way to keep the movement going. Soon they claimed to be a consensus.

Environmental extremists, notable politicians among them, then teamed up with movie, media and other liberal, environmentalist journalists to create this wild scientific scenario of the civilization threatening environmental consequences from Global Warming unless we adhere to their radical agenda. Now their ridiculous manipulated science has been accepted as fact and become a cornerstone issue for CNN, CBS, NBC, the Democratic Political Party, the Governor of California, school teachers and, in many cases, well informed but very gullible environmentally conscientious citizens. Only one reporter at ABC has been allowed to counter the Global Warming frenzy with one 15 minute documentary segment.

Wow! Pretty strong stuff but I do think it highlights that despite the media’s portrayal, there isn’t really a consensus on how much man impacts the climate. You can read the rest of his comments here.

Wrong again? Despite predictions, 2007 may rank as most inactive hurricane season in the last 30 years.

HurricaneThis marks the second year in a row forecasters predicted above normal hurricane activity only to have it be the opposite. Despite the “sky is falling” predictions about how global warming is the cause of all sorts of disasters, including an increased threat of hurricanes, we find the opposite is actually occurring. For more information see this page from the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies.