Snowpack reports as of this morning continue to hold great promise for Colorado.  All of the major basins are above average with the exception of the South Platte.  Another major snowstorm is hitting the mountains today and yet another is forecast for Wednesday.  We can only hope this pattern continues and NOAA’s forecasts of a dry first quarter don’t hold true.

It would however be nice if some of that moisture would move out onto the front range and into the Denver area and the plains.  There is a chance for a bit of snow in the metro area tomorrow and again on Wednesday although right now it doesn’t look like they will amount to much.

Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist affiliated with the University of Colorado and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to promise a dry winter.  In an article today in the Rocky Mountain News he says, “I think we should count our blessings. We got lucky” in regards to the amount of moisture the state has seen thus far.

According to Wolter, the La Nina weather pattern present in the Pacific will persist resulting in storms tracking north of our state.  The good news though is that snowpack thus far is above normal statewide and even if their predictions bear out, we should be okay come summer.  Here are the latest readings as of today:

           S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E 
  
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites 
                    As of MONDAY: JANUARY 14 , 2008 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
STATE                                                      PERCENT OF AVERAGE 
  RIVER BASIN                                     Number   Snow Water  Accum 
                                                 of Sites  Equivalent  Precip 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO 
  GUNNISON RIVER BASIN ......................... 11 of 13     144       137 
  UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ................... 27 of 29     119       124 
  SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN ..................... 15 of 15     105       101 
  LARAMIE AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS ........ 13 of 13     101       109 
  YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER BASINS ................. 17 of 19     102       111 
  ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN .........................  5 of  9     141       124 
  UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN .......................  9 of 13     158       144 
  SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS 
     AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS ................. 14 of 16     153       135

We of course hope the forecasters are wrong just like they have been about the last two hurricane seasons! 

Please click here for the full Rocky Mountain News Article. 

An interesting article from USA Today today discusses the fact that despite the snow we have recently enjoyed, we can’t rule out drought in 2008.  In part it says:

Despite a series of snowstorms that rescued ski areas in Colorado just before the holidays and built up the below-average snowpack, experimental forecaster Klaus Wolter says there still is a possibility of drought next year.

“My experimental forecast guidance for the late winter season (January-March 2008) continues to show a pervasive tendency for dry conditions over the full domain. Half of Colorado, and most of Arizona and New Mexico appear most likely to experience a dry season, raising the specter of renewed drought in currently drought-free regions,” said Wolter.

In other words, we can’t count on the wet weather to continue.  It is important to note that while the southern and central mountains have had lots of snow, the South Platte River basin, from which the Front Range gets most of its water, is still below normal levels.  To read the full article, click here. 

Unfortunately, historical trends don’t give us too good of a chance but there is always hope – remember last year? Click here to read our Christmas weather page and check back often for the latest Christmas forecasts as the holiday gets closer.

December is normally only our 4th snowiest month so we may not get a lot of relief. Current 30-day forecasts expect near normal temps but slightly below normal precipition. You can read more in our December Climate Preview here.

NOAA released its final 90 day winter forecast and little changed from earlier predictions. For Colorado that means the likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures, particularly in the southern part of the state. In terms of precipitation, they foresee equal chances for normal, above and below normal moisture while southern Colorado remains dry.

“Although we are expecting a warmer than normal winter, we do believe there will be fluctuations of warm weather and typical winter weather throughout the season,” said Edward O’Lenic, chief, forecast operations, NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “We encourage people to review winter weather risks for their particular area and information available online to help keep them safe when events do occur.”

Click here to read the complete report from NOAA.

Klaus Wolter predicts that the La Nina pattern that seems to be setting in will drive the jet stream north thus causing Colorado to stay dry. He says, “”I am very concerned that Colorado … might see regions of drought develop by spring.” To read more, click here to read the story in the Rocky Mountain News.