The High Park Fire rages in the mountains west of Fort Collins, Colorado. The dry conditions have prompted the state to ban all open burning and personal use of fireworks. Click the image for a slideshow of the blaze. (US Forest Service)
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper today issued an executive order banning all open burning and the use of personal fireworks across the state. As the High Park Fire shows, conditions are tinder dry and while lightning was the cause of that blaze, man is often to blame for wildfires as well.
“We can’t completely eliminate the threat of wildfire because there’s no way to control Mother Nature,” Hickenlooper said in a statement. “But we can take steps to reduce the risks of more wildfires starting. This ban is a necessary step to help protect people, property and the beautiful state we live in.”
The ban will put a damper on 4th of July fireworks festivities but is a necessary step to protect life and property. For campers, there will be limitations in unimproved locations but fires in permanent pits within developed campgrounds will still be allowed as long as the local authority allows it.
The High Park Fire now ranks as the third largest blaze in Colorado history. In 96 short hours the blaze grew to encompass an area more than 72 square miles and is now only 10% contained and still growing.
Now at 14,000 acres, the High Park Fire continues to grow unabated. Winds had shifted overnight sending the smoke over the metro area and Thornton but this afternoon they moved to the east. Satellite imagery, shown in the video below, clearly shows the smoke plume stretching through Colorado into Wyoming and Nebraska and starting to impact South Dakota.
A windstorm pummeled northeastern Colorado on New Year's Eve 2011.
Northeastern Colorado closed out 2011 with pummeling high winds on New Year’s Eve. Wind gusts of tropical and hurricane storm strength slammed into the region causing damage and claiming one life.
In the Denver metro area gusts approaching 50mph were common while areas in the foothills and mountains to the west and on the plains to the northeast saw much higher speeds. Here in Thornton we recorded a maximum gust of 44.9mph in the predawn hours.
Post-Storm Summary of the New Year’s Eve Windstorm
A fast moving upper level storm system, along with a deep low pressure system over Nebraska and high pressure building over Utah, combined to create a powerful windstorm across Northeast and North Central Colorado on December 31st. The high wind event began in the mountains after midnight Friday night, and then spread across the plains early Saturday morning. The height of the windstorm on the plains occurred around mid day when numerous gusts between 60 and 80 mph were reported.
The strong winds produced damage to fences and some roofs, and also knocked down trees resulting in power outages to approximately 19,000 residents. Some trucks were also blown off the road, and 1 fatality occurred due to a flying tree limb on U.S. Highway 36 north of Boulder.
Visibilities over the northeast corner of the state were also reduced significantly by a combination of blowing dust and blowing snow.
The following is a list by county of maximum wind gusts associated with this powerful windstorm…
Grand…
Berthoud Pass 94 MPH
11 N Kremmling 80 MPH
9 S Fraser 80 MPH
Jefferson…
3 SSE Pinecliffe 111 MPH
3 S Golden 86 MPH
Highway 72 and 93 Junction 79 MPH
National Wind Technology Center 77 MPH
3 NNW Morrison 76 MPH
4 S Rocky Flats 73 MPH
2 E Golden 67 MPH
2 E Northeast Lakewood 64 MPH
2 ENE Lakewood 64 MPH
3 W Conifer 62 MPH
Wheat Ridge 55 MPH
Larimer…
4 E Loveland 73 MPH
Natural Fort Rest Area 71 MPH
5 NW Fort Collins 67 MPH
3 NE Loveland 67 MPH
Wellington 63 MPH
4 E Fort Collins 63 MPH
Virginia Dale 62 MPH
Fort Collins 57 MPH
Lincoln…
3 W Cedar Point 80 MPH
Limon Airport 74 MPH
Weld…
4 ENE Eaton 80 MPH
3 NNW Cornish 79 MPH
2 NNW New Raymer 77 MPH
10 NE Pawnee Buttes 74 MPH
Briggsdale 72 MPH
9 NNE Briggsdale 72 MPH
7 N Rockport 70 MPH
Greeley Airport 67 MPH
4 ENE Severance 63 MPH
Eaton 63 MPH
1 N Greeley 62 MPH
6 E Berthoud 62 MPH
2 W Keenesburg 58 MPH
Milliken 56 MPH
12/31/11 - Here is surface pressure analysis (light blue lines) and infrared satellite image at 12 PM MST near the height of the windstorm. Note the large difference in pressure between the surface low pressure over southeast Nebraska and high pressure centered over southern Idaho, and the resulting tight gradient across Colorado. This is a key feature in windstorms across the Front Range and High Plains. (NWS)12/31/11 - A 6 hour model forecast of 700 mb winds (approximately 10,000 ft MSL) and surface pressure. 700 mb wind strength is noted by flags (50kts) plus barbs (10kts for full & 5kts for half). Stronger downslope flow and large scale subsidence which occurred in this storm can bring these stronger winds aloft down to the surface. (NWS)12/31/11 - A surface plot of weather stations across the region during the windstorm. This image was taken at 1 PM MST, when the maximum winds were spreading across the northeast plains of Colorado. At this time, the strongest corridor of winds stretched from Sterling (gusting to 59 kts or 68 mph), to Akron (gusting to 63 kts or 72 mph) to Burlington (gusting to 66 kts or 76 mph). (NWS)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released updated outlooks for winter 2011 – 2012 indicating it could be a snowy one for the northern half of Colorado.
The original outlooks from the agency released previously offered a drier picture, primarily based on the influences of La Niña in the Pacific. Given however that the current event is relatively mild, its effects are limited, particularly this far inland.
For the meteorological winter from December 2011 to February 2012, NOAA places virtually all of Colorado in an area that has equal chance of well above, well below, or near-normal temperatures. However, the northern half of the state, including Denver, is given a 33% chance of experiencing above normal precipitation.
NOAA said:
The winter outlook for this winter favors above average temperatures across much of the South, from New Mexico across the Southeast to the Atlantic coast… and also favors below average temperatures across much of the Northern plain, the Northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and a good part of the West as well as the southern half of Alaska.
With regards to precipitation, we see those areas most likely to experience below-average precipitation across the South– in particular Florida and Texas– with a better than even chance of being wetter than average across much of the North– particularly from the Ohio valley and the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.
Last year, Denver experienced second least snowiest snow season on record as the city only recorded 22.8 inches (21.2 inches in Thornton). This season the picture is much improved with 22.2 inches having been recorded so far – nearly as much as all of last season.
NOAA's updated Winter 2011 - 2012 outlook. Click the image for a larger view. (NOAA)
Hurricane-force winds pounded the Colorado high country on Saturday, November 12, 2011. Click the image for a larger view.
Fed by a strong jet streak roaring above the Colorado Rocky Mountains, a mountain wave setup over the western half of the state yesterday. Strong winds were the result and were combined with heavy snow in the central and northern mountains.
The incredibly strong winds that would be the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane ripped through Colorado’s high country in the past 24 hours. Many locations reported gusts in excess of 100mph downing power lines and trees and creating hazardous driving conditions.
The top wind gust reported by the National Weather Service was 115mph south of Frisco in Summit County.
Berthoud Pass saw a 113mph gust at the Mines Peak Summit (12,500 feet) with sustained winds to 86mph. After sending that reading, the station’s anemometer (wind sensor) broke.
Other locations recording gusts near 100mph included Loveland Pass at 100mph and Kenosha Pass recorded 101mph. Berthoud in Larimer County saw 99mph and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesa lab in Boulder recorded 90mph.
Here in Thornton we thankfully didn’t see winds nearly that fast however ours were notable. We recorded a 38mph gust Saturday afternoon and a 47mph gust shortly after midnight Sunday morning.
High winds like these, while quite strong, are not entirely unusual. Dangers from these powerful winds include power outages, flying debris, collapsed structures and the potential to overturn vehicles. Learn more in our story, Winter weather preparedness: The threat of high winds in Colorado.
Below is a water vapor satellite showing the mountain waves as the moved across the southern part of Colorado.
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Water vapor satellite imagery shows the mountain waves that existed across much of southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico around 19:45 UTC on 12 November 2011. (CIMSS)
Strengthening La Niña conditions in the Pacific could lead to another dry winter on the Colorado Front Range according to the winter 2011 / 2012 outlook released by NOAA. However, as we well know, Mother Nature is never consistent and other factors could give us some help.
While temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are indeed cooler than normal – and getting cooler – at this point they remain warmer than they were last year at this same time. This does help us hold out some hope that the winter won’t be as dry as last year.
It should also be noted that the effects of La Niña and El Niño in Colorado are much harder to predict and less consistent than in other places in the nation. Our location near the middle of the country with the monstrous Rocky Mountains adjacent to us oftentimes throws a wrench in the works.
U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it Devastating drought in Southern Plains likely to continue
NOAA's winter 2011 temperature outlook. Click the image for a larger view.
The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA.
For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.
NOAA expects La Niña, which returned in August, to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather throughout the world.
“The evolving La Niña will shape this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.”
The Arctic Oscillation is always present and fluctuates between positive and negative phases. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation pushes cold air into the U.S. from Canada. The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009. Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance.
NOAA's winter 2011 precipitation outlook. Click the image for a larger view.
With La Niña in place Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and parts of surrounding states are unlikely to get enough rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Texas, the epicenter of the drought, experienced its driest 12-month period on record from October 2010 through September 2011.
Stormy periods can occur anytime during the winter season. To improve the ability to predict and track winter storms, NOAA implemented a more accurate weather forecast model on Oct.18. Data gathered from the model will support local weather forecast office efforts to prepare for and protect the public from weather events. This service is helping the country to become a Weather-Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.
According to the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds tilt in favor of:
Pacific Northwest: colder and wetter than average. La Niña often results in below-average temperatures and increased mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months. This may set the stage for spring flooding in the Missouri River Basin;
California: colder than average and wetter than average conditions in northern California and drier than average conditions in southern California. All of the southern part of the nation are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Spring flooding could be a concern in parts of this region;
Southern Plains and Gulf Coast States: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these regions;
Florida and south Atlantic Coast: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: wetter than average with equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding;
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
Great Lakes: colder and wetter than average;
Hawaii: above-average temperatures in the western islands with above normal precipitation during the winter. Some drought recovery is expected across the state with Kauai and Oahu having the best potential for full recovery.
Alaska: colder than average over the southern half of the state and the panhandle with below average precipitation in the interior eastern part of the state.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
Lightning strikes east of 120th Avenue and Fairfax during Tuesday night's storms. View more images in the slideshow below. (ThorntonWeather.com)
For eight days in a row monsoonal flow fed thunderstorms have struck Thornton and Tuesday night brought arguably the best show yet. Heavy rain, hail, gusty winds and an extraordinary amount of lightning roused residents soon after nightfall.
Storms initially formed in the afternoon and were focused south of Denver in Elbert County. Near Kiowa, Elizabeth and Agate hail up to 1 3/4” in diameter was recorded. The slow-moving storms deposited as much as five inches of rain near Agate. Three twisters were reported in Elbert County but no damage was realized.
It appeared for a time that Thornton was going to escape the intense weather but once the sun went down the picture changed dramatically. Seemingly out of nowhere a storm cell popped up at around 9:20pm and moved across the north Denver metro area.
Heavy rain fell across a large part of the area from downtown northward to Thornton. 1.76 inches of rain was recorded north of downtown Denver at DenverWX.com as the storm passed through.
Street flooding was reported across the surrounding areas causing difficulty for motorists.
Here in Thornton we were pounded with heavy rain and a great deal of pea-sized hail. ThorntonWeather.com recorded its first inch of rain in only 14 minutes and the storm total for the overnight storm was 1.90 inches.
Strong winds also brought down trees and power lines knocking out power to nearly 10,000 Denver area residents including some in Thornton. Xcel Energy reports power has been restored to most areas this morning.
Denver International Airport recorded a thunderstorm wind gust of 66mph shortly before 10:00pm. A ground stop was issued and all flights were temporarily delayed while the storm moved through.
Forecasters had predicted a late and shorter than normal monsoon season due to La Niña’s lasting effect – that however has not proven to be true.
A common scene this past week - thunderstorms develop over the Denver area. Watch video of the recent street flooding in Thornton below. (Twitpic / CodyCrouch)
La Niña is winding down and normally we would expect a drier than normal monsoon. Mother Nature however has other plans as she not only brought the season to Thornton early, it came with a vengeance this week.
In a presentation that just came out at the first of the month, the National Weather Service discussed the coming monsoon. At that time forecasters predicted a drier and shorter than normal monsoon for the Colorado Front Range. Thus far it has been anything but.
This past week copious amounts of moisture have streamed into Colorado. Coupled with daytime heating leading to a good deal of atmospheric instability, thunderstorms have been a daily occurrence. Strong winds and heavy rain have occurred virtually daily.
Over the past five days Denver has recorded 1.78 inches of rain at the city’s official monitoring station at Denver International Airport. Closer to where population actually lives even greater amounts have been seen.
On Friday evening, a slow-moving thunderstorm dumped heavy rain on the southern parts of Thornton. Video footage from storm chaser Tony Laubach (below) shows the end result as streets in the area of I-25 and 84th Avenue were flooded.
Is there an end in sight? Not in the immediate future. For at least the next few days atmospheric moisture will continue to be in abundance and we will continue to see the same general pattern. By mid-week we may see some drying but we can’t entirely eliminate the threat of afternoon thunderstorms.
Security camera footage posted to YouTube appears to show a man being struck by lightning -- twice. Watch the video below
Lightning is a very real danger, particularly here in Colorado where thunderstorms are common in the spring and summer months. The chances, while somewhat remote, always exist to be struck by lighting and a new YouTube video appears to show a man being struck not once, but twice.
The amazing video surfaced on YouTube last week and shows the danger lightning presents. People are seen walking with umbrellas in what appears to be inclement weather. About 25 seconds into the video, a man quickly walks along a driveway when suddenly a bright flash occurs and the man falls to the ground. Watch the video below.
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After lying prone for a time the man comes to his senses, rises, and stumbles down the driveway. He only makes it a short distance before a second bolt from the blue strikes knocking him down yet again. Amazingly, after lying on the ground for another 20 seconds the man manages to get up and stumble off out of the camera’s view.
As you watch the video you notice a dark spot appearing beneath each place where the man appears to be struck. Speculation in the comments for the video is that it is either a burned spot on the pavement from the intense heat of the lightning or perhaps evidence that the man soiled himself when he was struck.
The writing in the top right corner is in Chinese but the location it was taken is unknown. There is also some debate as to the authenticity of the video as commenters raised a number of questions about the video.
What do you think? Real or not? Leave a comment with your thoughts below
Severe weather in Colorado brings a variety of conditions with lightning being very common in the Centennial State. From 1980 to 2009, 88 people were killed and 400 injured in the state by lightning. Colorado consistently ranks as one the top states for lightning-related fatalities in the nation. Learn more about lightning and lightning safety in the recommended links below.
While the video portrays an unlikely course of events, it is not outside the realm of possibility. The odds of an individual being struck by lightning in the United States in a given year are 1 in 500,000. Over a lifetime the odds are 1 in 3,000 which is a sobering statistic.
Rarely however is a person struck more than once with the National Weather Service putting the odds of being struck twice at 1 in 9 million over a lifetime. Mother Nature does not always conform to statistical rules however as Roy Sullivan, a park ranger in Shenandoah National Park in Virginia learned. Mr. Sullivan holds the Guinness World Record for being struck more times than any other human being – seven times between 1942 and 1977.
National parks are some of the nation’s most valuable and beautiful areas. Colorado is home to four of them and NASA satellites recently captured images of what may become our next one.
Colorado National Monument sits southwest of Grand Junction and contains extraordinarily beautiful and rugged terrain. In 1907, John Otto wrote of the area saying, “I came here last year and found these canyons, and they feel like the heart of the world to me. I’m going to stay and build trails and promote this place, because it should be a national park.”
Otto would not see his dream realized. Instead, in 1911, President William Howard Taft established the Colorado National Monument through a Presidential Proclamation.
