The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University (CSU) has issued its preliminary forecast for the Atlantic hurricane basin for next year. Generated by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, the forecast calls for above normal levels of tropical cyclone activity.
For the 2010 season, Klotzbach and Gray expect an “above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2010 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.” In terms of numbers, they forecast 11 – 16 named storms, 6 – 8 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 – 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2009 hurricane season wrapped up quite a bit below normal with the fewest storms since 1997. Check out our slideshow below for images from the 2009 hurricane season.
For the first time, the CSU team is issuing a range for the number of forecast storms instead of a specific number. This is more in line with the forecasts that the National Hurricane Center issues.
In terms of landfall probability for a major hurricane, the team also expects an increased chance. They peg the chance of a Category 3 or greater storm striking the U.S. coastline at 64% which is well above the average of 52%. The U.S. East Coast has a 40% chance of sustaining a hit (versus a 31% average) and the Gulf Coast has a 40% chance as well (versus a 30% average).
