Forecasters increase hurricane chances

NOAA says there is a greater chance for hurricanes in the coming months.
NOAA says there is a greater chance for hurricanes in the coming months.

In their August update to hurricane season forecasts, experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have changed their predictions for the season and now expect a greater chance of hurricanes this season.  They are now predicting an “above normal” season with 14 to 18 named storms – up from the 12 to 16 they predicted in May.

The forecasters now believe there is an 85 percent chance that this above normal trend will take place (up from 65 percent in May). 

“Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D. of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”

The updated 2008 hurricane outlook.
The updated 2008 hurricane outlook.

Thus far in 2008 there have been five named storms and the most active hurricane period – August to October – is just now beginning.  Will this prediction hold true?  Unfortunateley forecasters have struggled in recent years with their predictions.  Last year NOAA predicted 10 hurricanes and only six formed. The year prior, 2006, nine hurricanes were forecasted by NOAA but only five formed.  In 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in the worst U.S. natural disaster, the forecasts underestimated storm activity.

Various weather notes – the streak ends, big rain and more

Quite an eventful time we have had over the last 72 hours or so in terms of weather.  Some of the more noteworthy items:

The streak ends.  With cooler air finally moving into Colorado, Tuesday, August 5th marked the last day of our streak of 90 degree or higher temperatures.  Wednesday the temperature reached 88 degrees at DIA thus breaking the heat wave and ending the streak at a record 24 days.  The previous record of 18 days was last set 107 years ago in 1901!  Click here to view the official statistics for the streak.  Here at ThorntonWeather.com, our streak wasn’t quite as long.  While the official streak dates back to July 12th, Thornton did have one day – July 17th – where the temperature “only” reached 88 degrees.  If we start counting for Thornton on the 18th, that would put the Thornton streak at 17 days.  But, let’s face it, “hot is hot” no matter how you look at it! 

A racoon takes shelter in a storm drain at 120th & Colorado Blvd.  Image courtesy 9News.com.
A racoon takes shelter in a storm drain at 120th & Colorado Blvd. Image courtesy 9News.com.

Record seting rainstorm on Wednesday, August 6th.  As we discussed in our previous entry, severe weather moved across the Front Range bringing everything from thunder and lightning to funnel clouds and tornadoes to severe rain.  Various watches / warnings were issued including Tornado Warnings, Flash Flood Warnings / Watches and more.  Rain totals varied across the metro area with Thornton, particularly the northeast portions of the city, receiving the lion’s share.  At ThorntonWeather.com, we measured a whopping 2.43″.  The vast majority of that fell in a 70 minute time span from 6:00pm to 7:10pm.  Rain rates were reading between 3″ and 7″ per hour during that timeframe!  That is ThorntonWeather.com’s #1 rainiest day on record since going into service in October 2006; the previous record was 2.2″ set on April 24, 2007.  Some street flooding was reported in Thornton but thankfully little real damage.  At DIA they recorded 1.29″ of rain, breaking the old record for the date of 1.1″ set in 1929. 

Cooler weather to prevail today.  Significant moisture in the atmosphere and cooler temperatures should keep the excitement level down today – at least compared to yesterday.  After noon there will be a chance for rain and those that do get rain can expect it to be heavy at times.  As long as the temperatures stay down, we shouldn’t have the severity that we experienced yesterday though.  Click here to view the latest forecast.

Be safe, use your head, pay attention!  A bit of a report from the soapbox today.  As we were looking at pictures of the storm on various news sites, we came across one submitted to 9News from a Thornton resident of children playing in the street in the rain.  Now, that makes for a wonderfully fun picture and I am sure the kids had fun too but we do question how smart the parents were of these kids.  At the time Thornton was getting hit with the storm, lightning was popping across the entire area and there was a Tornado Warning issued as funnel clouds had been spotted.  Is outside playing in the street really where kids should be in a case like this?  That fun would come to a quick end if lightning struck or worse yet, one of those funnel clouds developed into a tornado.   Is that little bit of fun worth the risk of losing your child?  THINK ABOUT IT!  It may be worthwhile to review our Weather Education Series on Lightning and Tornadoes.

Thunderstorm brings funnel clouds, severe rain

An exciting evening in Thornton as far as the weather goes.  Just before 6:00pm Wednesday a slow-moving severe thunderstorm over north Thornton brought everything from funnel clouds to lightning to torrential rain. 

The Thornton radar image when the storm was at its height. The storm dumped over 2" of rain in 1 hour.
The Thornton radar image when the storm was at its height. The storm dumped over 2" of rain in 1 hour.
Rain began falling in the area of 120th and Colorado Blvd at 6:00pm and over the next 70 minutes dumped 2.36″ of precipitation.  Lightning and thunder were predominant for the entire time as well.  At 6:40 the National Weather Service issued a Tornado Warning when several funnel clouds were spotted between south Thornton and Dacono.  These slow moving storms presented a clear and present danger but appear to have passed relatively uneventful.  Minor street flooding has been reported in some parts of Thornton but otherwise little damage.

As of this writing, a Flood Advsiory and Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the Denver metro area.  Radar does indicate the storm is deteriorating and things should beging to settle down now. 

As always, please stay tuned to ThorntonWeather.com for the latest.  Be sure to monitor our Warnings and Advsiories page for realtime updates on current watches and warnings.

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Now you can leave comments & questions to us!
Now you can leave comments & questions to us!

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So much for forecasts! The streak continues!

Here in Thornton our high thus far today has reached 88.3.  However, out at DIA where the official Denver measurements are taken, the temperature reached 91 degrees.  This of course extends the streak to 41 days.  From the National Weather Service:

The Denver heat wave continues.  At 243 pm the temperature at Denver International Airport reached 91 degrees.  This temperature extends our current streak of consecutive 90 degree days to 24 days in a row.   It is amazing that 24 consecutive 90 or above high temperatures were recorded breaking the 18 day streak last set 107 years ago in 1901.

So far in 2008 41 ninety degree days have been tallied.     2008 remains 9 days away from the 10th top seasonal total of 50 set in both 1960 and 1964.  

Click here to view the updated statistics about the streak and historical streaks.

The records keep coming & a new website feature

Denver’s record of consecutive days with 90+ degrees continues as Saturday reached 103 degrees officially at DIA.  Here in Thornton we topped out at 98.6.  The temperature was quickly climbing and we were sure we were going to break 100 but early afternoon brought cloud cover to the Thronton area thus keeping us from reaching triple digits.

From the National Weather Service, four records were broken in the first two days of the month:

  • August 1st:   New record high:  104 degrees   Old record:  100 degrees last set in 1938
  • August 2nd:  New record high:  103 degrees   Old record:  100 degrees last set 130 years ago in 1878
  • August 2nd:  New record high minimum:  70 degrees   Old record  68 degrees  last set in 1938
  • August 2nd:  the consecutive 90 streak record continues with 21 consecutive days tallied.

Quite the start to the month! 

New website feature added today!  You can now view official National Weather Service “Local Storm Reports” directly on our website.  These reports are submitted by NWS personnel, trained spotters, law enforcement as well as other emergency responders.  They are a great way to see what is happening.  This new feature not only displays these reports for the metro area but also for all NWS offices across the country!  Special thanks to Curly at Michiana Weather for sharing the code that allows this to happen.

You can view the storm reports at any time by a new menu item added under the “Live Condtions” menu and the “Forecast” menu on the left.

Record streak official. Heat Advisory and possible record temps to come.

Denver\'s Record Breaking Heat Wave ContinuesIt is official – we have broken Denver’s 107 year old record of consecutive days with over 90 degree temperatures.  Thursday marked day 19 in the streak, moving past the old record of 18 days set way back in 1901 and 1874. 

At the current time, it looks like the 90+ degree heat will continue until Wednesday at the earliestso the streak could number around 24 days or so by the time it is done.  Thornton’s forecast calls for 101 degrees Friday, 100 Saturday and 98 on Sunday so the weekend will be a hot one for sure.  This gives us the potential to break Denver’s all-time record for August 1st and 2nd of 100 degrees (set in 1938 and 1878 respectively).  Thankfully it doesn’t look like we will break the overall all-time Denver temperature record of 105 so you can consider that a bit of a silver lining.  🙂  Continue reading Record streak official. Heat Advisory and possible record temps to come.

17 and still going – the heat wave continues

17 days - the 90 degree streak continues.This is beginning to sound like a broken record – pun intended. 🙂 As for Tuesday our streak of consecutive 90 degree days hit 17, moving us into a tie for second place. Assuming today reaches 90 degrees or more – and it almost certainly will – we will then tie the record that has been set twice previously (in 1901 and 1874).

An end in sight? Not yet. High pressure continues to hold over the area and temperatures are most likely going to actually climb to near 100 on Friday and through the weekend. Beyond that it is hard to say but things aren’t looking good to cool down anytime soon.

Certainly this streak is significant but we haven’t reached records for “hottest summer” just yet. Thus far we have had 34 days this year of 90+ degree temperatures. The number 10 slot for most 90+ degree days in a summer is held by 1960 when there were 50 days. The most? 2000 when there were 61.

Click here to view the updated statistics about our current streak and historical streaks.

16 days with 90+ degrees, the record certain to be broken

As on Monday, Denver has seen 16 consecutive days with 90 degrees or higher temperatures.  There was some hope the streak might be broken today but that quickly vaporized as we reached 95 degrees.

The current streak moves into a tie for fourth (with 2000).  The record of 18 days consecutive set in 1901 and 1874 is looking to be sure to be broken before the heat eases.  The next couple of days will see us remain in the mid 90’s and by Thursday and Friday we will be in the upper 90’s (possibly 100).  The weekend shows no relief with temps well into the 90’s as well.  At the current time it looks like we will thouroughly eclipse the 18 day record and there is no end in sight at this time.

Click here to view the updated statistics about our current streak and historical streaks.

August Preview – Summer coming to an end

August 2008 Weather PreviewAs summer vacations wind down and families prepare to send kids back to school in August, Colorado weather also starts to settle down.  The chances for severe weather decrease markedly during August and by the end of the month daytime temperatures are dropping quite a bit as well.  For more information on what to expect in August, click here to view our August 2008 Preview.

Editor’s note:  Somehow we forgot to post the July 2008 preview last month and we apologize for our error.  Should you wish to read it, it is posted here.

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