Snow on its way Wednesday evening. Warnings issued.

Snow in the forecast.Updated 2/13/08 @ 4:10pm.  A Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory has been issued and is in effect from midnight tonight until 5:00pm Thursday.  A blowing snow advisory means that winds and blowing and drifting snow will reduce visibilities sufficiently to make travel difficult.  Please continue to visit our site for the latest on the approaching storm.  If you haven’t, you may wish to sign up for our weather alert and report system to receive the latest information delivered directly to your inbox.

Updated 2/13/08 @ 7:00am.  It looks like the metro area will be in for snow this evening and into tomorrow.  We are expecting 3 to 6 inches in the Thornton area and the northern suburbs; higher accumulations will occur south with up to 9 inches across the southern metro area to the Palmer Divide.  Mountain areas could see up to a foot of snow. 

We’ll reach a high near 60 today but temperatures will drop rapidly as nighttime falls.  The storm is expecting to roll in from Wyoming and start hitting the Colorado border around 7:00pm, expanding to the Palmer Divide by 11:00pm.  Winds of 25 to 35mph are expected with the front so blowing snow will be a concern.  Evening rush hour today should at least be fine but tomorrow morning could be a bit dicey so please plan on leaving for work early and taking it slow.   Snow will continue Thursday morning and gradually diminish from north to south by Thursday afternoon. 

The National Weather Service has already issued Snow & Blowing Snow Advisories and Winter Storm Watches for some of the southern and central mountain areas.  These could be expanded as the storm develops. 

 Stay tuned to ThorntonWeather.com for the latest on this approaching system. 

Snowpack Continues to Grow

Snow in the forecast.

 The snowpack in the mountains continues to add up and we are having a great year as far as that goes.  The South Platte, which is crucial to many metro area water reserves including Thornton stands at 108% of normal. 

Colorado SNOTEL Snowpack Update Report
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
**Provisional data, subject to revision**
Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00) for Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Basin
  Site Name
Elev
(ft)
Snow Water Equivalent Percent of
Current
(in)
Today’s
Average
(in)
Avg
Peak
(in)
Avg
Peak
Date
Today’s
Average
Avg
Peak
GUNNISON RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 148  95 
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 131  82 
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 108  66 
LARAMIE AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS
Basin-wide percent of average 110  70 
YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER BASINS
Basin-wide percent of average 115  76 
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 169  108 
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 171  110 
SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS
Basin-wide percent of average 157  102 

Cleanup Continues After 57 Die In Tornadoes

Tornadoes hit the southThis past Tuesday saw over 40 tornadoes touch down across Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama and Mississippi.  The death toll from these storms currently stands at 57 making it one of the 15 worst tornado death tolls since 1950, and the nation’s deadliest swarm of tornadoes since 76 people were killed in Pennsylvania and Ohio on May 31, 1985. 

It is currently believed that because February tornadoes are not all that common, simple human nature may have been the root reason for so many fatalities.  Simply put, people weren’t expecting them or believing the warnings that were issued well in advance.  From USA Today: 

“Because February tornadoes are relatively rare, many residents didn’t respond quickly to warnings from weather forecasters because they didn’t believe the threat was serious until a storm was upon them. In fact, February tornadoes are “almost an annual event,” Brooks said. In 2007, there were three killer tornadoes in February — two in Florida and one in Louisiana — that killed a total of 22 people. During the most common months for tornadoes — March, April, May and June — fatalities typically are 15% lower and injuries are 22% lower because people expect such storms and prepare for them, said Dan Sutter, an economist at the University of Texas Pan American who has studied tornadoes for eight years.”

This truly is a tragedy and one has to wonder how many of these deaths could have been avoided had residents simply heeded the warnings that were issued.  For more information, please see:

USA Today – Cleanup continues after devastating tornadoes

The Tennessean – Nashville newspaper’s special section about the storms

Memphis Radar Image

Memphis radar image from February 5, 2008

January 2008 Weather Summary – Denver’s 7th Driest January Since 1872

January 2008 Weather SummaryDenver and Thornton wrapped on the first month of 2008 dry.  Official measurements at Stapleton and at ThorntonWeather.com recorded only 0.08 inch of precipitation making it the 7th driest January since recordkeeping began in 1872.  This was 0.43 inch below the 0.51 normal, so a pretty big drop.  Only two days had measurable precipitation in the form of snow at Stapleton while in Thornton we recorded four. 

Officially only 3.1 inches of snowfall was recorded near the former Stapleton International Airport and in Thornton we recorded a bit less at 2.8 inches.  This was 4.6 inches below normal for Denver.  Thornton’s seasonal snowfall stood at 26.4 inches at the end of the month (the official Denver measurement was 29.5 inches) which is below the official normal of 33.3 inches for this period. There were no precipitation records set or tied during the month.

In regards to temperature, the normal average for the month is 29.2 degrees which we finished slightly below at 27.9 (28.2 in Thornton).  Illustrating the wide range of temperatures we experience in Colorado, we had a high temperature of 66 degrees on the 27th and a low of -1.7 on the 22nd (Denver recorded 63 and -3 on those days).  All but one day of the month, the 4th, recorded low temperatures below freezing and five days had high temperatures that never got above freezing.  While the month was below normal, it was still warmer than what it was just one year ago in 2007 when the average was 22.8 degrees! 

Some other interesting statistics…  We did have sunshine 79% of the possible time so it was pretty sunny at least.  Wind is of course a fact of life on the plains and we did have 12 days with wind gusts registering over 25mph.  On the 25th of the month we registered the highest gust of the month at 38mph. 

For a day by day log, click here to view our climate log for January 2008.

Fast Moving Storm Dumps 1.5″ of Snow

Snow!Much to everyone’s surprise, what was forecast to be not much more than a dusting of snow turned into quite a bit more.  In Thornton from about 6:00pm to 7:00pm we saw 1.5″ fall very quickly with near blizzard conditions for that brief period.  Much of the Denver metro area saw more snow than that, primarily west of I-25 and south of I-70.  Not far from us Broomfield reported 3.4″ and Federal Heights 3″.

Why did this storm offer more than predicted?  Here is what 7News’ meterologists offer:

Computer models had shown little if any snow across Denver.  However, instability in the atmosphere provided enough juice for a convective-type snowfall.  Reports of thundersnow came from southwest Denver near Chatfield State Park as a result of the instability early Wednesday afternoon.

This type of snow is called CSI, Conditional Symmetric Instability. It is generated when enough instability exists in the atmosphere to give snow showers a thunderstorm-type development.  With help from upslope flow, these snow events can dump a lot of snow in a short period of time.  While these events don’t last more than a few hours in most cases, snowfall rates as high as 2 to 3 inches can amount to excessive accumulation.

For the foreseeable future we expect to stay pretty dry.  Our next chance for snow comes Monday and into Tuesday.  No predictions yet on amounts of snow as it is too far out and the models aren’t consistent yet.  Until then, temperatures should be pretty seasonable.

Latest Snowpack Reports Continue to Hold Promise

Snowpack above normalSnowpack reports as of this morning continue to hold great promise for Colorado.  All of the major basins are above average with the exception of the South Platte.  Another major snowstorm is hitting the mountains today and yet another is forecast for Wednesday.  We can only hope this pattern continues and NOAA’s forecasts of a dry first quarter don’t hold true.

It would however be nice if some of that moisture would move out onto the front range and into the Denver area and the plains.  There is a chance for a bit of snow in the metro area tomorrow and again on Wednesday although right now it doesn’t look like they will amount to much.

Colorado SNOTEL Snowpack Update Report
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
**Provisional data, subject to revision**
Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00) for Sunday, January 27, 2008
Basin
Site Name
Elev
(ft)
Snow Water Equivalent Percent of
Current
(in)
Today’s
Average
(in)
Avg
Peak
(in)
Avg
Peak
Date
Today’s
Average
Avg
Peak
GUNNISON RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 132 72
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 114 61
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 93 49
LARAMIE AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS
Basin-wide percent of average 99 54
YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER BASINS
Basin-wide percent of average 99 56
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 148 80
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
Basin-wide percent of average 150 83
SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS
Basin-wide percent of average 141 78

Climate Change to Cause Decrease in Hurricanes?

HurricaneAnother story that points to the fact that the “consensus” of researchers is less than solid.  In recent years and months we have been told that global warming would result in more frequent and more powerful hurricanes hitting the United States.  Now, this tidbit comes from a story in USA Today:

The study by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Miami Lab and the University of Miami postulated that global warming may actually decrease the number of hurricanes that strike the United States. Warming waters may increase vertical wind speed, or wind shear, cutting into a hurricane’s strength.

It seems that there really is less agreement on these types of things than Al Gore, the IPCC and others would have us believe.  You can read the full story here.

Storm Chaser Convention Coming to Denver

Storm Chaser Convention Coming to DenverFebruary 15th -17th Denver will play host to the 10th Annual National Storm Chaser Convention.  The event will be held at the Raddison Hotel at I-225 and Parker Road (3200 South Parker Road).  Most notably, the keynote speakers will be Dr. Josh Wurman and Sean Casey who appeared in the recently aired Discovery Channel special, Storm Chasers.  This is a great opportunity for weather enthusiasts to share storm stories, learn more about severe weather and storm chasing, see new weather gadgetry and hear from some of the experts in weather related fields. 

To learn more, please visit the National Storm Chaser Convention website at:  http://chaserconvention.com

State Lucky Thus Far – Dry Months Ahead According to NOAA

Dry Months Ahead?Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist affiliated with the University of Colorado and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to promise a dry winter.  In an article today in the Rocky Mountain News he says, “I think we should count our blessings. We got lucky” in regards to the amount of moisture the state has seen thus far.

According to Wolter, the La Nina weather pattern present in the Pacific will persist resulting in storms tracking north of our state.  The good news though is that snowpack thus far is above normal statewide and even if their predictions bear out, we should be okay come summer.  Here are the latest readings as of today:

           S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E 
  
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites 
                    As of MONDAY: JANUARY 14 , 2008 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
STATE                                                      PERCENT OF AVERAGE 
  RIVER BASIN                                     Number   Snow Water  Accum 
                                                 of Sites  Equivalent  Precip 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO 
  GUNNISON RIVER BASIN ......................... 11 of 13     144       137 
  UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ................... 27 of 29     119       124 
  SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN ..................... 15 of 15     105       101 
  LARAMIE AND NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS ........ 13 of 13     101       109 
  YAMPA AND WHITE RIVER BASINS ................. 17 of 19     102       111 
  ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN .........................  5 of  9     141       124 
  UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN .......................  9 of 13     158       144 
  SAN MIGUEL, DOLORES, ANIMAS 
     AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS ................. 14 of 16     153       135

We of course hope the forecasters are wrong just like they have been about the last two hurricane seasons

Please click here for the full Rocky Mountain News Article. 

Weather, natural disasters & climate news and information.