Slow Weather But We’re Always Changing

The weather lately has been pretty uneventful with little to talk about.  That may change Tuesday night when a cold front is supposed to move through.  In the meantime though, there have been some changes and additions to our site.  If you haven’t seen them already, you may wish to check them out.

  • – We’ve added the National Weather Service forecast discussion to the forecast section.  This is where the NWS provides some more narrative behind their forecasts and gives a bit more of an in depth look at what we can expect.  Click here to check it out.
  • – Our “Live Conditions” animation page now has the ability to view our lightning data, including the maps.  When you are there, click the Lightning button to see it.
  • – Did you know we provide an email weather alert and report system?  These are handy little emails that provide forecasts, statistics and more.  Click here to learn more and sign up.
  • – We would like to welcome a new “sister station” aboard.  ArvadaWX.com provides much of the same information we do here but tailored to Arvada, Colorado residents.  Be sure to check them out and if you know anyone else that lives in that area, let them know as well. 
  • – Don’t forget about our other sister station, ReunionWeather.com, for those that live in northern Commerce City!

As always, should you have any suggestions or comments about our site, please let us know

Latest Addition – Snow Moisture Content Measurements

We are pleased to announce a new addition to our array of measurements – snow moisture content.  In the past, moisture content measurements had to be done manually as the cold winter weather would freeze our rain gauge.  As a result, we rarely performed these measurements (we’re wimps and don’t like the cold!).  Now we have a heated rain bucket that is capable of melting snow at a rate of 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation per hour – that means over 2 1/2″ of average snow in an hour! 

Davis Rain Bucket HeaterThis will allow us to more accurately track the benefit of the moisture we receive from snow.  As you know from shoveling it, the moisture content of snowfall varies greatly.  The white, fluffy snow that ski areas love so much really doesn’t do much for moisture as it only contains about 5% of moisture.  A heavy, wet spring snow like we see can have 15% or more.  On average, Colorado snow hits around the 10% mark.  No matter how much moisture is in the snow, we don’t get as much true moisture from it as you may think. 

So, when you visit our site and see “rain” during the winter, that is the moisture content of the snow you are seeing. 

Avalanche Danger High – One Dies in Recent Days

Avalanche danger.Recent snows along with high winds have raised the avalanche danger in the high country to “considerable” in many areas according to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center.  This was highlighted yesterday when a 27 year old man was killed just outside of Vail in an area known as the East Vail Chutes.  This is the second avalanche death of the season, the first being on December 2nd in Larimer County.  In the most recent case, these skiers had done everything right including having avalanche beacons but that was not enough. 

Avalanche Danger - 01/05/08

Everyone who intends to ski or hike in the high country, particularly outside of established areas, needs to be aware of the danger avalanches pose.  Recent weather has made the conditions ripe for these events.  The Forest Service National Avalanche Center points out that nearly all avalanches that involve people are triggered by the victims themselves or a member of their party.  The good news about that is that means that education can help to reduce the number of accidents we see each year.  To learn more, please see:

Hurricane Season Ends – Questions to Answer Though

Record low hurricane seaso for 2007The 2007 hurricane season officially ended on November 30th and in the Atlantic, a total of 14 named storms were produced, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes.  The good news is that only one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions struck the United States so we escaped relatively unscathed.  This does however make one wonder about the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.  This is the second year in a row that predictions indicated above normal activity when the opposite turned out to be true. 

It is notable that as recently as NOAA’s August hurricane update they said: 

NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

 There’s that word again – CONSENSUS!  Let’s take a look at the facts:

  • – The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was below normal and tied for 2002 as the most inactive since the El Nino depressed 1997 season in terms of storm energy.
  • – The North Atlantic was not the only ocean that experienced quiet tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has to go back to 1977 to find lower levels of cyclone energy as measured by the ACE hurricane energy metric. Even more astounding, 2007 will be the 4th slowest year in the past half-century (since 1958) .
  • – Fewest Northern Hemisphere hurricane days since 1977 – the 3rd Lowest since 1958 (behind 1977 and 1973).
  • – When combined, the 2006 and 2007 Atlantic hurricane seasons were the least active since 1993 and 1994.

ThorntonWeather.com has to wonder – If we can’t accurately predict short term climatological events such as hurricanes, how can those that make up a “consensus” accurately predict and gauge man-made climate change on a global scale? 

Click here to view NOAA’s 2007 hurricane season summary.

The Snow Clears Out, the Cleanup Begins

Snow clears outRound 2 of the snowstorms has come and gone and left Thornton with around 5″ of the white stuff.  As a result, we have now moved into the #10 spot of the snowiest Decembers on record which works out well as it helps to make up for the dry season we have had prior to this.  It will be cold today with some nasty windchills but we should start to see some melting tomorrow and into next week. 

 Thornton announced yesterday that residential streets were going to be plowed and they have already been making the rounds – ThorntonWeather.com’s street was plowed at 8:30 last night.  From talking to other residents, the quality of the plowing seems to vary widely but no matter what, it is nice to have it done.  We commend the city for taking the initiative and getting this done.  It is not a cheap endeavour but it is a service that residents should appreciate. 

Storm Arrives – 4 – 8″ Expected

SnowIt started snowing this morning around 4:00am and the storm appears to be intensifying.  There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect until 11:00pm tonight so it will be with us all day.  Remember that a winter storm warning means hazardous winter weather conditions are imminent or highly likely. Significant snow accumulations are occurring or expected. Strong winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

Current indications are that we should receive between 4 and 8 inches of snow.  Needless to say the drive home for those working today will be a bit rough.  Please allow yourself extra time and take it slow. 

More Snow on the Way!

Snow on the way!After receiving a few inches of snow in the metro area on Christmas Day (3.6 in Thornton), another round is on the way and it has the potential to be pretty bad.  At 4:56am this morning, the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire Front Range. 

It is pretty unusual for them to issue a warning this far in advance unless they are confident it is going to hit and hit pretty hard.  4 – 8 inches are currently predicted with the potential for locally heaver amounts.  With as cold as it has been and is expected to stay for the next few days, this could get ugly.  Please plan your travel accordingly and be safe out there!

A few Christmas snowfall notes, from the National Weather Service: 

It appears that there may be a new daily snowfall for Denver for Christmas Day. The data in the link below extends back to 1900.  The 2.4 inches recorded today at 6 AM will beat the 1.7 inches set in 1912.  After dusting off some old records here at the National Weather Service office we discovered that 6.2 inches of snowfall was recorded on December 25, 1894.   We also found that prior to 1905 snowfall was recorded from 8 PM to 8 PM. From Jan 1905 to May 1999 snowfall data was from midnight to midnight. Since May 1999, snowfall data has been recorded from 6 AM to 6 AM.  The snow in 1894 began around 8 PM on the 24th and ended  around 2 PM on the 25th. The data for December 25, 2007 will show 2.4 inches recorded at 6 AM.  The remainder of the snow that fell today will be reflected on the data for the December 26.  It will be for the period from 6 AM on the 25th to 6 AM on the 26th. So did we have a record or not? It all depends on how you interpret  the data.  No matter how you look at it, Christmas day 2007 will be memorable.  Click here to check the Christmas day statistics  for snowfall from 1900 to 2006.

On a related note…  When you look at the measurements for snowfall that we make here at ThorntonWeather.com, those are typically total accumulations for the day we actually received the snow, up until 9:00pm or so.  The National Weather Service standard of 6:00am to 6:00am measurements is fine but are not what most folks expect.  As mentioned above, the 6:00am measurements from yesterday showed 2.4 inches of snow in Denver but obviously more than that fell throughout the day.  We feel that providing a total measurement for the day the snow actually feel is more in line with what folks expect and think of. 

Christmas Day Snow!

Christmas is here!As the kids wake up early this morning to see what Santa left them, we are seeing a bit of a nasty storm system move across the area.  The National Weather Service has issued a Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory that will remain in effect until 5:00pm Christmas Day.  Forecast models are a bit unclear as to how much snow we can expect – anywhere from one to five inches depending on which models we look at.  The biggest problem will be the wind blowing things around and causing travel issues for those visiting folks on the holiday.  Be sure to be safe and as always, stay tuned to ThorntonWeather.com for the latest.

Current Advisories

Current Forecast

Meteorologist: Colorado drought still possible despite storms

Drought?An interesting article from USA Today today discusses the fact that despite the snow we have recently enjoyed, we can’t rule out drought in 2008.  In part it says:

Despite a series of snowstorms that rescued ski areas in Colorado just before the holidays and built up the below-average snowpack, experimental forecaster Klaus Wolter says there still is a possibility of drought next year.

“My experimental forecast guidance for the late winter season (January-March 2008) continues to show a pervasive tendency for dry conditions over the full domain. Half of Colorado, and most of Arizona and New Mexico appear most likely to experience a dry season, raising the specter of renewed drought in currently drought-free regions,” said Wolter.

In other words, we can’t count on the wet weather to continue.  It is important to note that while the southern and central mountains have had lots of snow, the South Platte River basin, from which the Front Range gets most of its water, is still below normal levels.  To read the full article, click here

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