Despite what seems like a slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters are warning that the worst is yet to come. In updates to their annual predictions released last week, Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are sticking to their earlier forecasts of an above normal level of activity for 2010.

On Wednesday the professional team of Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray at CSU said they were sticking with their original prediction of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The pair warns, “We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

NOAA updated their annual forecast Thursday saying, “The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season” and that there was a “90% chance of an above normal season.” Warmer than average water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean and low wind shear are expected to help storm generation. The agency did slightly lower its forecast to 14 – 20 named storms, 8 – 12 hurricanes and 4 – 6 major hurricanes.

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Only three named storms so far in 2010

Hurricane Alex became a tropical storm on June 26th and a hurricane on the 29th. The storm became a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in northeastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed on July 22nd followed by Tropical Storm Colin on July 30th. Colin only survived for 12 hours initially then reconstituted itself late last week only to fall apart as it passed over Bermuda.

The worst is yet to come

Experts reminded the public that August and September are historically the most active months with the peak occurring during the second week of September. Dr. Gerry Bell of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said, “All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months.”

Keeping the public safe and aware is one of the primary purposes of the forecasts and despite the slow start to the season, they warn coastal residents not to be complacent. NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said, “August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared.”

Related stories:

• Atlantic hurricane names for 2010 – Alex through Walter
• The United States’ hurricane history – The 21st century
• The United States’ hurricane history – The 20th century