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Tag Archives: hurricane
Florida braces for Hurricane Matthew as track swings closer
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CSU forecasters predict near-normal 2016 hurricane season
The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has released its initial forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters are expecting a relatively typical season in terms of the number of storms and their relative strengths.
Headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the team predicts a total of 13 named storms. Of those, six are expected to become hurricanes and 2 of those major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.
On average, the Atlantic receives 12 named storms, five of which would be hurricanes and two of those major storms.
Of the storms expected to develop in 2016, the forecasters give a 50% chance that at some point the U.S. coastline will be struck by a major hurricane. Average for the past century was 52%.
The numbers released include Hurricane Alex, a short-lived storm in January that reached Category 1.
Uncertainties for the seasonal forecast center around a weakening El Niño and possible development of La Niña conditions.
The report says, “The big question marks with this season’s predictions are how quickly the El Niño weakens, as well as what the configuration of SSTs [Sea Surface Temperatures] will look like in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.”
La Niña typically brings less wind shear to the Atlantic allowing storms to form more easily.
Hurricane Alex becomes first January hurricane since 1938
From the National Hurricane Center:
Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane. It’s the first hurricane to form in the month of January since 1938, and the first hurricane to be present in this month since Alice of 1955. (Alice formed in late December 1954 and carried over into January 1955.) Alex’s maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts – a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength through Friday is forecast.
At 1100 a.m. AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located about 490 miles south of Faial Island in the Central Azores, moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning.
The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores.
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.
Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Get the latest on this tropical cyclone by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
Hurricane Pali sets Pacific record
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If you were looking for a location which defined the term ‘the middle of nowhere’, Johnston Atoll would have a strong claim. This uninhabited island lies 1,390 kilometres southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, themselves lying in a remote part of the Pacific. Johnston Atoll is mentioned here because it is the closest island to what has… Continue reading Hurricane Pali sets Pacific record |
Weather system deluges eastern US coast as hurricane threat eases
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Sarasota, Florida (dpa) – The south-eastern US coast was likely to be spared the wrath of Hurricane Joaquin, but rainfall from a low pressure system drenched several states Saturday. Flood warnings were posted in several coastal states, reaching accumulations of up to 25 centimetres in already saturated areas. One of the worst hit was South Carolina,… Continue reading Weather system deluges eastern US coast as hurricane threat eases |
Tropical Storm Joaquin, Upgraded to Hurricane, May Head to East Coast
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Tropical storm Joaquin, which some meteorologists expect could be headed toward the East Coast of the United States over the weekend, was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday morning by the National Weather Service. Joaquin formed late Monday over the Atlantic Ocean and strengthened east of the Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon, with wind speeds… Continue reading Tropical Storm Joaquin, Upgraded to Hurricane, May Head to East Coast |
Hurricane season is predicted to remain below average
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MIAMI — As the of peak the hurricane season approaches, forecasters predicted with confidence on Thursday that storm activity would remain low this year. “We have an even higher confidence that this year’s hurricane season will be below normal,” said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction… Continue reading Hurricane season is predicted to remain below average |
United States sees record-setting number of billion dollar disasters in 2011
According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the U.S. has seen a record number of billion dollar disasters in 2011. Thus far this year the nation has seen 10 such disasters and with hurricane season far from over, it seems likely the number will grow.
The events range from the Groundhog Day Blizzard to Hurricane Irene’s recent devastating blow to the East Coast. In all, the disasters represent more than $35 billion in losses and that is no including Irene’s yet to be determined toll.
Below is the list and narrative for each disaster from the NCDC. For the latest disaster news, be sure to check out the Natural Disasters Examiner.
Hurricane Irene, August 20-29, 2011 While it will take several months to determine an accurate estimate of the damage from Hurricane Irene, there is no question it will rank as the 10th billion-dollar weather event of the year. This 10th U.S. billion-dollar disaster officially breaks the annual record dating back to 1980.
Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer, 2011 Melting of an above-average snow pack across the Northern Rocky Mountains combined with above-average precipitation caused the Missouri and Souris Rivers to swell beyond their banks across the Upper Midwest (MT, ND, SD, NE, IA, KS, MO). An estimated 11,000 people were forced to evacuate Minot, North Dakota due to the record high water level of the Souris River, where 4,000 homes were flooded. Numerous levees were breached along the Missouri River, flooding thousands of acres of farmland. Estimated losses exceed $2.0 billion as the event continues to unfold (as of 8/15). The flooding also stretched into the Canadian Prairies, where property and agriculture losses were expected to surpass $1.0 billion, at least 5 deaths.
Mississippi River flooding, Spring-Summer, 2011 Persistent rainfall (nearly 300 percent normal precipitation amounts in the Ohio Valley) combined with melting snowpack caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Estimated economic loss ranges from $2.0-4.0 billion; at least 2 deaths. Below are more detailed stats, which are preliminary, as the event continues to unfold (as of 8/15): $500 million to agriculture in Arkansas; $320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee; $800 million to agriculture in Mississippi; $317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri’s Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway; $80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana.
Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Summer, 2011 Drought, heatwave, and wildfires have created major impacts across the Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, southern Kansas, and western Arkansas and Louisiana. In Texas and Oklahoma, respectively, 75% and 63% of range and pasture conditions were classified in ‘very poor’ condition as of mid-August. Wildfire fighting/suppression costs for the region are also ~$1 million / day with over 2,000 homes and structures lost. The total direct losses (as of August 15) to agriculture, cattle and structures are well over $5.0 billion; both direct and total economic losses will rise dramatically as the event continues.
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (MO, TX, OK, KS, AR, GA, TN, VA, KY, IN, IL, OH, WI, MN, PA) with an estimated 180 tornadoes and 177 deaths. Notably, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, MO resulting in at least 141 deaths, making it the deadliest single tornado to strike the U.S. since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950. Over $4.9 billion insured losses for event; total losses greater than $7.0 billion; 177 deaths.
Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (AL, AR, LA, MS, GA, TN, VA, KY, IL, MO, OH, TX, OK) with an estimated 305 tornadoes and 327 deaths. Of those fatalities, 240 occurred in Alabama. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak, an EF-5, hit northern Alabama, killing 78 people. Several major metropolitan areas were directly impacted by strong tornadoes including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville in Alabama and Chattanooga, Tennessee, causing the estimated damage costs to soar. Over $6.6 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $9.0 billion; 327 deaths.
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (OK, TX, AR, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, VA, PA) with an estimated 160 tornadoes. Despite the large overall number of tornadoes, few were classified as intense, with just 14 EF-3, and no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes identified. Over $1.4 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.0 billion; 38 deaths [22 of which were in North Carolina].
Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (NC, SC, TN, AL, TX, OK, KS, IA, WI) with an estimated 59 tornadoes. Over $1.5 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.2 billion; numerous injuries, 0 deaths.
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5, 2011 Outbreak of tornadoes over central and southern states (KS, MO, IA, IL, WI, KY, GA, TN, NC, SC) with an estimated 46 tornadoes. Over $1.6 billion insured losses; total losses greater than $2.3 billion; 9 deaths.
Groundhog Day Blizzard, Jan 29-Feb 3, 2011 Large winter storm impacting many central, eastern and northeastern states. The city of Chicago was brought to a virtual standstill as between 1 and 2 feet of snow fell over the area. Insured losses greater than $1.1 billion; total losses greater than $2.0 billion; 36 deaths.
CSU hurricane forecasters predict very active Atlantic season
Forecasters at Colorado State University released an updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane forecast that if it holds true, portends a very eventful season. The forecast warns of a 175 percent above normal level of activity and most troubling warns that the United States is overdue to get struck by a major hurricane.
The 2010 hurricane season was a busy one and saw the third most named storms on record but mercifully, none made landfall in the United States. For the 2011 season the CSU team expects things to be slightly calmer but still far above normal.
CSU forecasters are calling for 16 named storms during the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Of those they expect nine will become hurricanes and five of those will be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
These estimates far exceed the historical 1950 to 2000 average. During that period the Atlantic averaged 9.6 named storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
- This story was originally posted on the Natural Disasters Examiner – Visit there for all the latest natural disaster news
The team warned that whether a hurricane forecast calls for above or below normal activity, residents should always be equally prepared. Dr. Phil Klotzbach said, “It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”
Breaking down the team’s analysis further, they gave a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. By comparison, the long-term average probability is 52 percent.
This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.
~ Dr. William Gray
By region CSU forecasters put a 48% chance on the probability that a major hurricane will strike the East Coast. Nearly matching that they said there was a 47% probably a major hurricane would hit on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Dr. William Gray noted that overall the Atlantic Basin is primed for significant hurricane activity. He said that since 1999, only the 2004 and 2005 seasons saw a major hurricane make landfall in the U.S. and this scenario is not likely to continue. Gray warns, “This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”
More hurricane news from the Natural Disasters Examiner: