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Climatology, Thornton Weather, World Weather

April 2011 ends as 7th warmest on record for the globe; Denver warmer and drier than normal

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Global surface temperature Anomalies - April 2011. (NOAA)
Not only did Denver and Thornton see warmer than normal temperatures in April, so did the rest of the globe. Click the image for a larger version. (NOAA)

With the effects of La Nina still in full force the globe’s temperatures performed as forecasted during April 2011.  According to NOAA the month ranked as the seventh warmest April on record while Denver saw warmer and drier than normal conditions as well.

Denver saw an average temperature during the month of 48.4 degrees – 0.8 degree above normal.  Temperatures ranged from a record high of 84 degrees on the 2nd down to a low of 19 on the 4th of the month.  Fifteen days saw temperatures dip below the freezing mark which is four more than normal.

Here in Thornton we were slightly cooler with an average of 48.1 degrees for April.  Our high ranged from 86.3 degrees down to a low of 20.6 degrees.

The lack of precipitation and snowfall was one of the biggest stories of the month for the Mile High City.  A mere 1.07 inch of precipitation was recorded in Denver’s rain bucket which was 0.86 inch below the normal of 1.93 inches.

Snowfall was similarly dismal as only 1.2 inches of snow was recorded at Denver International Airport.  This was far below the normal of 9.1 inches for April which is historically our fourth snowiest month.  Through April 30, a mere 21.8 inches of snow has been recorded at Denver’s official monitoring site at Denver International Airport – the second worst snow season to date.

Thornton was a bit wetter than Denver as we recorded 1.54 inches of liquid precipitation.  In terms of snowfall we received only 1.5 inches, most of which (1.3”) fell on the 3rd of the month.

Overall the globe saw warm temperatures as well.  The combined land and ocean temperature average for the month was 57.76° F which was 1.06° above the 20th century average.  Taken separately the land surface temperature was 2.02° above normal and sea temperatures were 0.70° above normal.

April 2011 global climate summary – From NOAA:

The Earth experienced the seventh warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, as the climate phenomenon La Niña continued to be a significant factor. April’s annual Arctic sea ice extent was the fifth smallest since record keeping began in 1979, while the Antarctic sea ice extent was the fourth smallest.

The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

Global Temperature Highlights – April

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for April 2011 was the seventh warmest on record at 57.76 F (14.29 C), which is 1.06 F (0.59 C) above the 20th century average of 56.7 F (13.7 C). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.13 F (0.07 C).
  • Separately, the global land surface temperature was 2.02 F (1.12 C) above the 20th century average of 46.5 F (8.1 C), which was the sixth warmest April on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.20 F (0.11 C). Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across most of the southern United States and northern Mexico, much of central South America, Europe and Siberia. Cooler-than-average regions included most of Alaska, western Canada, the northwestern United States, southwestern Greenland and most of Australia.
  • The April global ocean surface temperature was 0.70 F (0.39 C) above the 20th century average of 60.9 F (16.0 C), making it the 11th warmest April on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, the northwestern Pacific and across the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.
  • The average temperature was the warmest on record for April across the United Kingdom. Germany reported its second warmest April since records began in 1881.

Global Temperature Highlights – Year-to-date

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the year to date (January – April 2011) was 0.86 F (0.48 C) above the 20th century average of 54.8 F (12.6 C), making it the 14th warmest on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.16 F (0.09 C).
  • The year-to-date worldwide land surface temperature was 1.33 F (0.74 C) above the 20th century average — the 17th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.36 F (0.20 C). Warmer-than-average conditions were particularly felt across the southern half of Greenland, Siberia, northern Mexico, the southern United States and across Africa. Cooler-than-average regions included central Canada, the northern United States, western Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, extreme southeast Asia and most of Australia.
  • The global ocean surface temperature for the year-to-date was 0.68 F (0.38 C) above the 20th century average and was the 11th warmest such period on record. The margin of error is +/-0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across parts of the most of the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the North Atlantic near Greenland and Canada, and the southern mid-latitude oceans.
  • La Niña conditions continued to weaken in April for the fourth consecutive month, although sea-surface temperatures remained below normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña will continue to have global impacts as the event continues to decline, but by late spring neither La Niña nor El Niño conditions are expected to prevail in the region.
  • Effective May 2, 2011, NOAA updated its monthly mean temperature dataset, which is used to calculate global land surface temperature anomalies and trends. The Global Historical Climate Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) version 3 dataset replaced GHCN-M version 2. Beginning with this month’s Global State of the Climate Report, GHCN-M version 3 is used for National Climatic Data Center climate monitoring products.  More information on this transition can be found at:http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnm.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

  • The average Arctic sea ice extent during April was 5.7 percent below average, ranking as the fifth smallest April since satellite records began in 1979.
  • The April 2011 Antarctic sea ice extent was 7.7 percent below average and was fourth lowest April extent since records began in 1979.
  • Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during April ranked as the 15th smallest on record, while the snow cover extent over North America was the 10th largest and Eurasian snow cover was the fifth smallest April snow cover on record.
  • Average rainfall across Australia was 18 percent above average during April. However, for the first month since June 2010, below-average rainfall was reported in the states of Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales. This broke a streak of nine consecutive months with above-normal rainfall in those states.
National Weather, Natural Disasters

NOAA releases statistics highlighting devastating April tornado outbreak

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Tornado Tracks: April 24th through the 29th, 2011. (NOAA)
Tornado Tracks: April 24th through the 29th, 2011. (NOAA) Click the image for a larger view.

The devastating tornado outbreak that struck across the southern United States last month continues to be analyzed by the National Weather Service.  At latest county 326 people were killed and as many as 305 tornadoes resulted in in the outbreak.

What follows is NOAA’s latest update on the events:

From NOAA:

NOAA’s preliminary estimate is that there were 305 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 25 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011. NWS created a table to provide clearer insight into the preliminary number of tornadoes. Each of the three categories in the table below has different levels of confidence/accuracy.

  • Eyewitness Reports are the least accurate/reliable because long-lived tornadoes like those in this outbreak tend to be reported multiple times. This artificially increases the number of tornadoes.
  • NOAA’s Estimate is based on expert analysis of the Eyewitness Reports compared with the details coming out of the Tornadoes Surveyed by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). It is the statistic NWS uses in public announcements since it is the best estimate at the time. The numbers will change (typically down) as WFOs complete their storm surveys.
  • Tornadoes Surveyed by WFOs is the latest confirmed number of tornadoes surveyed by the National Weather Service.
Preliminary Tornado Data Table
Date Eyewitness Reports NOAA’s Estimate Tornadoes Surveyed by WFOs (to date)
25-26 55 40 25
26-27 111 75 42
27-28 268 190 134
Total: 434 305 201
  • The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued severe weather outlooks five days in advance and tornado watches hours in advance.
  • NWS Weather Forecast Offices issued life-saving tornado warnings, with an average lead-time of 24 minutes. NWS issued warnings for more than 90 percent of these tornadoes.
  • NWS decision support for this event has been extensive. NWS Weather Forecast Offices in the affected areas of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia advertised the potential for severe weather in the Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe since late last week. Local offices provided direct decision support services to meet the specific needs of local emergency manager partners and the general public. NWS Weather Forecast Offices issued Hazardous Weather Outlooks up to six days in advance noting the greater threat of strong, long-track tornadoes was expected.
  • The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.
  • NOAA will conduct a detailed analysis of tornado numbers using all available data to make any final determinations about records.  This typically takes months to complete.

There were approximately 326 fatalities during the entire outbreak from April 25 to April 28.

There were approximately 309 fatalities during the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28. This is currently the fifth deadliest day of tornadoes on record.

  • The Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado during the April 2011 event caused at least 65 fatalities. This tornado had a maximum width of 1.5 miles and a track 80 miles long
    • These are the most fatalities from a single tornado in the United States since May 25, 1955, when 80 people were killed in a tornado in southern Kansas with 75 of those deaths in Udall, Kansas.
    • The deadliest single tornado on record in the United States was the Tri-State tornado (Mo., Ill., Ind.) on March 18, 1925, when 695 died.

According to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Storm Survey teams, there were 24+ killer tornadoes in six states–Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia–that caused an estimated 326 fatalities.

The National Weather Service Storm Survey teams have upgraded to EF-5 the tornado that hit Neshoba, Kemper, Winston, Noxubee Counties in Mississippi.  The Weather Service has documented three (3) EF-5 tornadoes in this outbreak.

EF-5 Tornado Locations

  • Northern Mississippi/Eastern Arkansas
    • Smithville in Monroe County
  • Mississippi (NEWLY UPGRADED TO EF-5 FROM E-4)
  • Northern/Central Alabama (WFO Birmingham Warning Area):
    • Hackleburg in Marion County

The following are the tornado fatality breakdowns by state:

  • 4 – Arkansas
  • 35 – Mississippi
  • 236 – Alabama
  • 31 – Tennessee
  • 5 – Virginia
  • 15 – Georgia

Note:  All numbers are based on combined NOAA and historical research records and current fatality estimates. The historical research records extend back to 1680.

Ongoing (preliminary) List of Tornadoes by EF Rating (EF0 to EF5):
EF-5 3
EF-4 11
EF-3 21
EF-2 47
EF-1 62
EF-0 57
Total: 201
Climatology

NOAA: 2010 ties as second warmest year on record

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NOAA temperature anomaly map showing warmer than average temperatures across much of the globe in 2010. (NOAA)
NOAA temperature anomaly map showing warmer than average temperatures across much of the globe in 2010. View more images in the slideshow below. (NOAA)

Data released by NOAA puts 2010 into the history books as tying with 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.  The newly released report is sure to fuel the ongoing climate change and global warming debate for the year to come. 

The National Climatic Data Center’s information shows that the combined global land and ocean temperatures in 2010 were 1.12° F (0.62° C) above the 20th century average.  This ties the year with 2005 as the warmest on record. 

Land surface temperatures globally were the warmest on record as a temperature anomaly of 1.8° F (1.0° C) was recorded.  The oceans fared better according to the NCDC with temperatures 0.88° F (0.49° C) above the 20th century average putting it in the books typing with as the third warmest on record. 

The United States separately was warm as well although not in record-setting form.  Warmer than average temperatures were recorded across much of the nation with the south being the exception.  NOAA said that temperatures are increasing at a rate of 0.12° F per decade. 

Continue reading NOAA: 2010 ties as second warmest year on record →

Colorado Weather, National Weather, Thornton Weather

Winter storms take their toll – Snow covers 69% of the lower 48 states

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National snow cover map as of January 11, 2011.
Snow now covers nearly three quarters of the lower 48 states and 47 of the 48 have at least some snow. (NOAA)

For much of the lower 48 states of the United States the 2010 to 2011 winter season has been a rough one.  Blizzards and snowstorms have stretched into the Deep South and this morning data shows that nearly three quarters of the nation is covered in snow.

The latest analysis from NOAA’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center shows 69.4% of the lower 48 states covered in snow as of this morning.  This is a significant increase over the 33.1% cover seen in December and bests the previous snow season’s highest number.

Perhaps most interesting is that 47 of the lower 48 states and 49 of all 50 states including Hawaii have at least some snow with the only exception being Florida.  Even the Deep South reaching nearly to the Gulf of Mexico is covered in a blanket of white today after ice and snow pummeled the region yesterday.  Early this morning only five of the 48 did not have some sort of a winter weather warning or advisory in effect.

A snowstorm that started in the South before Christmas moved up the East Coast and left record-setting snow totals in its wake including in New York City.  The same storm that struck the South yesterday now has its sights set on the same area from the mid-Atlantic to New England. 

Continue reading Winter storms take their toll – Snow covers 69% of the lower 48 states →

Natural Disasters

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season as Active as Predicted but U.S. Dodges the Bullet

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2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map
Track map of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season shows how lucky the U.S. was. Click image for larger version. (NOAA)

Virtually every forecaster predicted an extremely active 2010 hurricane season and they were proven right.  Mercifully however the United States was spared the worst as not one storm made landfall in the U.S.

In all, there were 19 named storms in 2010 which ties 1887 and 1995 for the third most on record.  Of those 19, 12 became hurricanes tying 1968 for the second highest on record.  Five became major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.  On average the Atlantic sees 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. 

  • Watch: Scroll down to see video of the 2010 hurricane season as captured by NOAA satellites

Other notable statistics from the season include three periods when there were three named storms occurring at the same time.   On August 30, Hurricane Earl, Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Fiona were all churning.  Two days later it was Tropical Storm Gaston, Tropical Storm Fiona and Hurricane Earl.  Finally on September 14 we saw Hurricane Karl, Hurricane Igor and Hurricane Julia all at once. 

For a 36 day period from August 21 to September 26 there was at least one tropical cyclone active in the Atlantic.  A total of 11 storms were active during that period.  September alone saw eight named storms tying the 2002 and 2007 hurricane seasons. 

On average 25% of Atlantic hurricanes make landfall in the United States.  Given how active the season was, it is that much more remarkable that the U.S. was spared. 

Other places along the Atlantic were not so lucky.  In all, 259 deaths were directly attributed to the hurricane season and more than $11 billion in damage was realized.  Tropical Storm Matthew was the deadliest 2010 storm accounting for 126 fatalities in Nicaragua, Belize and Cuba.   

While the Atlantic was active, the eastern Pacific saw the fewest number of named storms and hurricanes since the satellite era began in the mid-1960s.  Only seven named storms developed of which three became hurricanes.  Two of those three became major hurricanes.  For comparison, the North Pacific averages 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

NOAA Time Lapse Video of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Climatology

Globe experiences eighth warmest October on record

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Warm and dry were the key words for Denver’s October weather and that same trend was also seen globally.  According to the National Climatic Data Center, October 2010’s average global temperature was the 8th warmest on record.  With an average temperature of 58 degrees, the month was nearly 1 degree warmer than average. 

The image below shows the areas that were warmer and cooler than the 1971 to 2000 average.

October 2010 global temperatures. (NOAA)
October 2010 global temperatures. (NOAA)

 From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

Global Temperature Highlights

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for October 2010 was the eighth warmest on record at 58.07 F (14.54 C), which is 0.97 F (0.54 C) above the 20th century average of 57.1 F (14.0 C). The range associated with the combined temperature is +/- 0.14 F (0.08 C).*
  • The October worldwide land surface temperature was 1.64 F (0.91 C) above the 20th century average of 48.7 F (9.3 C) — the sixth warmest October on record. Warmer-than-average conditions were particularly felt across western Alaska, Canada, northeastern Africa, the Middle East, Kazakhstan and large portions of Russia. Cooler-than-average regions included most of Europe, Mongolia and much of Australia. The range associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (0.11 C).
    • According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia had its 10th coolest maximum temperatures on record for October with daytime maximum temperatures 2.12 F (1.18 C) below average. Statewide, both the Northern Territory and Queensland had their third coolest maximum temperatures since national records began in 1950.
  • The October worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.72 F (0.40 C) above the 20th century average of 60.6 F (15.9 C) and was the 10th warmest October on record. The warmth was most pronounced across the Atlantic, western North Pacific and most of the Indian Ocean. The range associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (0.07 C).
  • For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 58.53 F (14.73 C) was tied with 1998 as the warmest January–October period on record. This value is 1.13 F (0.63 C) above the 20th century average.
  • Moderate La Niña conditions continued in October, while sea surface temperatures remained below-normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to strengthen and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2011.

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

  • The average Arctic sea ice extent for October was 2.97 million square miles (7.69 million square km), which was 17.2 percent below average. This marks the third lowest October Arctic sea ice extent since records began in 1979 and the 14th consecutive October with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
  • Antarctic sea ice began its annual retreat during October. October 2010 was the fourth largest sea ice extent on record (2.9 percent above average). The largest October sea ice extent occurred in 2006.
  •  According to Mexico’s National Weather Service (Servicio Meteorolológico Nacional), this October was Mexico’s driest since 1941.
  • North and west Amazonia in Brazil was in the midst of its worst drought in the past 40 years. In October, one of the Amazon River’s most important tributaries, the Black River, dropped to its lowest level of 44.7 feet (13.6 meters) since record keeping began in 1902.
Climatology

NOAA forecasts warmer than normal winter for Colorado

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NOAA's winter 2010 temperature outlook forecasts warmer than normal temperatures for Colorado.
NOAA's winter 2010 temperature outlook forecasts warmer than normal temperatures for Colorado. (NOAA)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter 2010 outlook yesterday and the effects of La Niña are forecast to bring extremes to many places.  Closer to home Colorado’s outlook is for a warm winter with equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation. 

La Niña conditions have been strengthening in the Pacific which means that water temperatures are cooler than normal.  By contrast, El Niño is the opposite – warmer than normal sea temperatures.  These conditions can have a big effect on weather patterns and can lead to extreme weather events.

“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”

The outlook forecasts a colder and wetter than normal winter for the Pacific Northwest stretching across to the northern Rockies.  Much of the south and southwest is expected to see warmer and drier than normal conditions.

NOAA says Colorado can expect warmer than average conditions in the period through February 2011.  In terms of precipitation, the service does not see any factors that would push us toward one extreme or the other.  As such we have equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation – essentially a 33 1/3% chance of each.

The precipitation outlook gives Colorado equal chances of above, near and below normal precipitation for the upcoming winter season. (NOAA)
The precipitation outlook gives Colorado equal chances of above, near and below normal precipitation for the upcoming winter season. (NOAA)

Highlights from other regions include:

  • Pacific Northwest:  colder and wetter than average. La Niña often brings lower than average temperatures and increased mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and western Montana during the winter months, which is good for the replenishment of water resources and winter recreation but can also lead to greater flooding and avalanche concerns;
  • Southwest: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
  • Northern Plains: colder and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
  • Southern Plains, Gulf Coast States & Southeast: warmer and drier than average. This will likely exacerbate drought conditions in these areas. All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring;
  • Florida: drier than average, with an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Above normal wildfire conditions;
  • Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: warmer and wetter than average. Likely to see increased storminess and flooding;
  • Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;
  • Central U.S.: equal chances of above-near-or below normal temperatures and precipitation;
  • Hawaii: drier than normal through November, then wetter than normal December through February. Statewide, the current drought is expected to continue through the winter, with several locations remaining on track to become the driest year on record. Drought recovery is more likely on the smaller islands of Kauai and Molokai, and over the windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui;
  • Alaska: odds favor colder than average temperatures with equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. The interior and southern portions of the state are currently drier than normal. A dry winter may set Alaska up for a greater chance of above normal wildfire conditions in the spring.
Natural Disasters

All eyes on monster Category 4 Hurricane Earl

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August 31, 2010 - Hurricane Earl passes to the north of Puerto Rico. The major hurricane is a threat to the United States from the mid-Atlantic to New England.
August 31, 2010 - Hurricane Earl passes to the north of Puerto Rico. The major hurricane is a threat to the United States from the mid-Atlantic to New England.

Hurricane Earl continues its slow trek toward the west-northwest after pummeling parts of the Caribbean yesterday.  Today it looks like most areas will be spared the worst of the storm but a forecasted turn to the north may put parts of the East Coast at risk. 

The eye of Earl is currently 146 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico and the storm is packing 135 mph winds making it a Category 4 hurricane.  A bit more strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours as the storm continues to encounter warm waters and favorable conditions. 

Of particular concern is the path that Earl may take.  It is expected to gradually turn north and eventually to the northeast.  Within its forecast cone is a vast area stretching from South Carolina to Maine.  With many large population centers within the possibility for landfall, the potential for a major disaster are great.

We are monitoring the storm closely and posting updates to the Natural Disasters Examiner on Examiner.com.  Be sure to check there for the latest.

You can also view our live hurricane tracker here and our tropical weather update page here.

The video below is taken from NOAA satellite imagery and has been processed by the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS).  It shows the life of Hurricane Earl from sunrise to sunset yesterday.

Climatology

Global temperatures on the rise – Second warmest July, warmest year-to-date

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From the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration: The combined global land and ocean surface temperature made this July the second warmest on record, behind 1998, and the warmest averaged January-July on record. The global average land surface temperature for July and January–July was warmest on record. The global ocean surface temperature for July was the fifth warmest, and for January–July 2010 was the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

The monthly analysis from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, which is based on records going back to 1880, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions.

Global temperature anomolies, July 2010. (NOAA)
Global temperature anomolies, July 2010. (NOAA)

Global Temperature Highlights

  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for July 2010 was the second warmest on record at 61.6°F (16.5°C), which is 1.19°F (0.66°C) above the 20th century average of 60.4°F (15.8°C). The averaged temperature for July 1998 was 61.7°F (16.5°C).
  • The July worldwide land surface temperature was 1.85°F (1.03°C) above the 20th century average of 57.8°F (14.3°C) — the warmest July on record. Warmer-than-average conditions dominated land areas of the globe. The most prominent warmth was in Europe, western Russia and eastern Asia. Cooler-than-average regions included central Russia, Alaska and southern South America.
    • According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland set a new all-time maximum temperature on July 29 when temperatures soared to 99.0°F (37.2°C), surpassing  the previous record set in July 1914 by 2.3°F (1.3°C).
    • Western Russia was engulfed by a severe heat wave during much of July. On July 30, Moscow set a new all-time temperature record when temperatures reached 102°F (39°C), exceeding the previous record of 99.0°F (37.2°C) set four days earlier. Before 2010, the highest maximum temperature recorded in Moscow was 98.2°F (36.8°C), set nine decades ago.
    • According to the Beijing Climate Center, the July 2010 average temperature across China was 73.0°F (22.8°C), which is 2.5°F (1.4°C) above the 1971-2000 average and the warmest July since 1961.
  • The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.97°F (0.54°C) above the 20th century average of 61.5°F (16.4°C) and the fifth warmest July on record. The warmth was most pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean.
  • La Niña conditions developed during July 2010, as sea surface temperatures (SST) continued to drop across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-2011.
  • For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 58.1°F (14.5°C) was the warmest January-July period on record. This value is 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20th century average.
Global temperature anomolies, January through July, 2010. (NOAA)
Global temperature anomolies, January through July, 2010. (NOAA)

Polar Sea Ice and Precipitation Highlights

  • Arctic sea ice covered an average of 3.2 million square miles (8.4 million square kilometers) during July. This is 16.9 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent and the second lowest July extent since records began in 1979. The record low July was set in 2007. This was the 14th consecutive July with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. July 1996 was the last year that had above-average sea ice extent.
  • Antarctic sea ice extent in July was above average, 4.8 percent above the 1979-2000 average—resulting in the largest July sea ice extent on record.
  • According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the continent received an average of 34.4 mm (1.35 inches) of precipitation during July 2010—this is 55 percent above the 1961-1990 average and the highest value since 1998.

Scientists, researchers and leaders in government and industry use NOAA’s monthly reports to help track trends and other changes in the world’s climate. This climate service has a wide range of practical uses, from helping farmers know what and when to plant, to guiding resource managers with critical decisions about water, energy and other vital assets.

Natural Disasters

CSU hurricane forecasters warn the worst of hurricane season is yet to come

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Comparison of updated 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.
Comparison of updated 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.

Despite what seems like a slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters are warning that the worst is yet to come. In updates to their annual predictions released last week, Colorado State University (CSU) forecasters and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are sticking to their earlier forecasts of an above normal level of activity for 2010.

On Wednesday the professional team of Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William M. Gray at CSU said they were sticking with their original prediction of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The pair warns, “We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

NOAA updated their annual forecast Thursday saying, “The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season” and that there was a “90% chance of an above normal season.” Warmer than average water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean and low wind shear are expected to help storm generation. The agency did slightly lower its forecast to 14 – 20 named storms, 8 – 12 hurricanes and 4 – 6 major hurricanes.

Only three named storms so far in 2010

Hurricane Alex became a tropical storm on June 26th and a hurricane on the 29th. The storm became a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in northeastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed on July 22nd followed by Tropical Storm Colin on July 30th. Colin only survived for 12 hours initially then reconstituted itself late last week only to fall apart as it passed over Bermuda.

The worst is yet to come

Hurricanes can occur at any time of year but the peak period is from August to October. (NOAA)
Hurricanes can occur at any time of year but the peak period is from August to October. (NOAA)

Experts reminded the public that August and September are historically the most active months with the peak occurring during the second week of September. Dr. Gerry Bell of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said, “All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months.”

Keeping the public safe and aware is one of the primary purposes of the forecasts and despite the slow start to the season, they warn coastal residents not to be complacent. NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said, “August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared.”

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