Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook - thorntonweather.com

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Updated: Sun, 01-Aug-2021 2:25pm MDT

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Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Outlook	Weather Advisories and Warnings National Wildland Fire Activity Map

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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for parts of northern California and southwest Oregon. Visible satellite shows mostly clear skies over this region, which should allow for strong insolation and diurnally driven convective development this afternoon. Peripheral lightning ignitions will be possible again today outside of predominately wet thunderstorm cores. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/01/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to northern Montana today as a weak upper-level impulse continues to shift northward through the Pacific Northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to overspread eastern WA/OR and much of ID, and while wetting rainfall seems likely, a few dry lightning strikes are possible. Conditions will generally remain dry along much of the West Coast, but weak winds are expected outside of terrain-favored locations due to a nebulous surface pressure pattern and modest flow aloft. ...Northern Montana... An east-to-west pressure gradient over the northern Plains will continue to filter dry continental air into central MT today with RH values in the teens to low 20s expected. East/southeasterly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph as a diurnal mixing deepens through the day. Modest boundary-layer flow will limit the potential for critical conditions, though occasional gusts up to 20-25 mph are possible. ERCs remain above the 90th percentile across the region and will support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Pacific Northwest... Early morning thunderstorms will likely persist for much of the day across the Pacific Northwest as the upper-level impulse meanders north. Regional soundings show an increase in PWAT values over the past 24 hours due to the northward advection of deeper monsoonal moisture. This trend will continue and increase the potential for wetting rainfall - especially through northern ID where latest ensemble guidance shows high probability for 0.1+ inches of rainfall. Mostly wet thunderstorms are expected for northern ID/eastern WA where fuels remain dry, but a few dry lightning strikes are possible with the initial onset of thunderstorms and outside of the heavier precipitation cores. A few dry strikes are also possible along and immediately east of the Cascades where weak lift and meager instability may support a thunderstorm or two. While lightning strikes over dry fuels will be a concern, the threat for widespread dry thunderstorms appears too low to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
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