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Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts |
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 25 14:40:02 UTC 2023No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 25 14:40:02 UTC 2023. SPC MD 339MD 0339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251438Z - 251545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear plausible late this morning going into the afternoon hours. Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a possible WW. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a steady increase in storm intensities over the past hour or so, with multiple updrafts showing 30 dBZ cores extending into the 35-45 kft range. The intensification of the storms is coincident with increased diurnal heating across portions of central and southern GA, where a southwesterly low-level jet continues to advect low-level moisture. The expectation is for surface temperatures to heat well into the 70s F amid upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints by late morning/early afternoon, with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1500 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings depict relatively steep 0-1 km lapse rates, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. As such, efficient downward momentum transport may support a few damaging gusts. Within the past hour, a transient supercell may have spawned a tornado in Houston County, AL (based on a possible TDS shown on KEOX dual-polarimetric radar data). While an additional tornado or two remain possible through the day, current regional VADs and RAP/NAM forecast soundings depict modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs, with a weakness noted in the 850-700 mb layer, driven by the departure of the low-level jet. As such, the tornado threat may be tempered by decreasing deep-layer ascent. Nonetheless, the overall severe threat may be prevalent enough that a WW may be needed. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31178483 31748434 32498375 32878330 33078289 33098252 32928197 32618168 32008160 31348186 30968242 30818333 30728428 30768460 31178483Read more SPC MD 338MD 0338 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MICHIGANMesoscale Discussion 0338 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin and northern Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251354Z - 251800Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates on the order of one to two inches per hour are expected to continue across eastern Wisconsin into northern Michigan through the early afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, multiple surface observations from eastern WI and northern lower MI have reported falling snow with visibilities at or below 1/4 mile. Given temperatures largely in the low 30s and wind speeds between 10-15 knots, blowing snow probabilities are sufficiently low to imply that the visibility reductions are largely the result of heavy snowfall rates. Furthermore, the lowest visibilities have been co-located with a persistent organized snow band from eastern WI to the northern portions of Lake Michigan, which further implies that heavy snowfall is ongoing with rates as high as 1-2 inches per hour. These observed trends are expected to persist at least through the remainder of the morning. Dynamic lift associated with the left-exit region of an upper jet, coupled with strong isentropic and frontogenetical ascent in the 850-700 mb layer, will reside over the region as a compact upper low, currently over north-central IL, translates east into the lower Great Lakes region. Organized snow bands will remain possible with snowfall rates as high as 2 in/hour at times. Locations across northeast lower MI with temperatures currently above freezing will likely see a transition from a mixed precipitation type to mainly snow through the late morning as low-level saturation/evaporative cooling allows for falling temperatures closer to freezing. ..Moore.. 03/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 43708665 43618682 43548719 43418742 43208771 43008801 42938834 42918863 42948892 43058903 43258914 43638897 44188870 45568773 46028721 46408663 46678584 46798514 46698454 46508414 46238366 46018342 45768323 45088332 44578424 44248493 44048548 43708665Read more SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)Public Severe Weather OutlookPUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0848 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Mississippi into adjacent parts of northern Alabama and middle Tennessee overnight... * LOCATIONS... Northern half of Mississippi Southwestern Tennessee Northwestern Alabama * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley tonight. Several tornadoes are possible, including the possibility for a few strong tornadoes, and scattered damaging gusts. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Smith.. 03/25/2023Read more SPC Mar 25, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1300Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes between about 1 to 5 PM EDT. Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast through Sunday morning. ...Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough centered over IL will rapidly progress across the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. The trailing southeast portion of strong large-scale forcing for ascent should initially overlap a destabilizing air mass over OH towards midday. At least isolated low-topped convection should develop as meager buoyancy develops with MLCAPE of 200-500 J/kg. Despite veered low-level winds, very strong speed shear will support potential for a few discrete, low-topped supercells. Setup appears most likely to yield a marginal threat of all severe hazards for a few hours around peak heating from eastern OH and northern WV into western PA and southwest NY. ...Southeast... Below-average confidence exists in severe potential amid multiple rounds of thunderstorm possibilities through the period within relatively nebulous large-scale ascent. Morning to afternoon severe potential should be focused ahead of a lingering arc of convection from central GA to southeast AL, as low-level warm theta-e advection occurs from the west towards the GA/SC coast. Although much of the large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced to the north of the region, the low-level moistening in conjunction with pockets of stronger diurnal heating should support an uptick in storm intensity. Veered low-level flow but adequate deep-layer shear could yield a few weak supercells with an isolated severe threat. Beginning this evening and persisting overnight, modest low-level isentropic ascent is anticipated along a quasi-stationary front from the southern Lower MS Valley through central GA. Ample PW will exist south of this baroclinic zone within a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from northeast Mexico across much of the northern Gulf. This will yield a corridor of moderate buoyancy persisting well into the overnight. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z HRRR are most insistent on convective development, especially during the early morning along the front. Deep-layer shear profiles will conditionally favor a threat for a few supercells with large hail as the most probable hazard. ..Grams/Goss.. 03/25/2023Read more |
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Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. | |
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