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Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Severe Weather Forecasts |
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244WW 244 SEVERE TSTM IN KY 191835Z - 200000ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Central Kentucky * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms have begun to develop over southwest Indiana and central Kentucky. A few of these storms will pose a risk of hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southeast of Bowling Green KY to 5 miles east northeast of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...HartRead more SPC Tornado Watch 243WW 243 TORNADO MO 191750Z - 200000ZURGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern Missouri. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible this activity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Springfield MO to 45 miles southeast of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...HartRead more SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 Status ReportsWW 0244 Status UpdatesSTATUS FOR WATCH 0244 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YETRead more SPC Tornado Watch 243 Status ReportsWW 0243 Status UpdatesSTATUS REPORT ON WW 243 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..05/19/22 ATTN...WFO...SGF...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-017-023-029-031-035-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077- 091-093-099-105-109-123-125-131-149-151-153-157-161-167-169-179- 181-186-187-201-203-207-209-213-215-221-223-225-229-191940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BOLLINGER BUTLER CAMDEN CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MADISON MARIES MILLER OREGON OSAGE OZARK PERRY PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD STONE TANEY TEXAS WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALRead more SPC MD 830MD 0830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 191836Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon along a warm front near the Iowa/Minnesota border. These storms would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift northward near the Iowa/Minnesota border. Dewpoints near the boundary are generally in the low 60s F. A narrow corridor of low/mid 60s F dewpoints exists in southwestern Iowa with dewpoints in parts of central/eastern Iowa mixing out into the upper 50s F. With an MCV currently in southern/central Missouri, the degree and quality of moisture return is uncertain with eastward extent. The KOAX/KFSD VWP have sampled the 35-40 kts 850 mb winds that are helping to increase low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front. Objective mesoanalysis is showing near 400 m2/s2 effective SRH right along the boundary in northwest Iowa. Storms that form along and interact favorably with the boundary will be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail. Should any storms move north of the boundary, the tornado threat would be less, but large/very-large hail would remain possible. Though low-level shear/SRH would suggest the potential for a strong tornado, the continued decrease in dewpoints within western/central Iowa makes this a low-probability scenario. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43299535 43989493 44249450 44299372 43909299 43509248 42879237 42649326 42599422 43299535Read more SPC MD 829MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...southern Indiana into Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191818Z - 192045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of storms producing large hail and sporadic wind damage are expected to persist for several more hours. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a substantial CU field across TN and KY, with a surge of higher dewpoints northward. Storms have erupted along this effective front over southern IN which also lies within the 850 theta-e advection zone. Given continued heating and the persistent diffuse moist advection zone, addition clusters of storms may form east or southeastward into KY, with hail and localized wind damage. The ongoing IN cluster may effectively translate eastward, and additional isolated storms may develop to its south over central KY. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36938584 36918625 36988667 37208699 37578725 37778754 38068784 38208789 38428774 38998711 39218649 39178509 38818444 38128429 37588446 37228476 37058493 36938584Read more SPC MD 828MD 0828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...southern Missouri into southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191717Z - 191945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of tornado, damaging wind and hail is likely to develop across much of southern Missouri by 19Z, and into southern Illinois by late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to form around the southern periphery of the MCV circulation near Springfield MO and extending west to Sarcoxie, and may be the beginnings of the severe event. Visible imagery shows clearing downstream across southern MO, and instability will only increase throughout the day as the previously rain-cooled air modifies. Midlevel lapse rates are steep and will result in vigorous updrafts. Wind fields associated with the MCV will enhance shear and supercell potential, with 50 kt flow between 2-3 km. 0-1 SRH in excess of 100 m2/s2 will be sufficient for a tornado threat. Damaging winds with a bow echo or QLCS will also be possible if storm mode becomes more linear. As such, a watch will likely be needed soon. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38339122 38648986 38628923 38428876 38158856 37888843 37628852 37298883 36958973 36759065 36739267 36829357 37079385 37369385 37569358 37989251 38339122Read more SPC May 19, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible later this afternoon into early tonight across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Occasional large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may also occur this afternoon from southern Missouri into parts of Indiana/Kentucky. ...Upper MS Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending eastward along the IA/MN border. This boundary will lift slightly northward today, with a warm and moderately moist airmass along and south of the front. A southerly low-level jet will strengthen by mid-afternoon, enhancing convergence/lift along the boundary and result in the development of intense thunderstorms. Supercells map develop across the ENH risk area, capable of very large hail and a tornado or two. During the evening, storms will likely develop southwestward across western IA into eastern NE, with a more localized risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Lower OH Valley... Satellite imagery shows a pronounced MCV over southwest MO. A cluster of lead thunderstorms over eastern MO will limit northward destabilization this afternoon, but a corridor of moderate/strong instability will likely form ahead of the MCV from southern MO into southern IL/IN and western KY. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, posing an initial risk of large hail and a tornado or two. 12z CAM solutions suggest the activity will grow upscale during the evening with an increasing risk of damaging winds as the storms move into IN/KY. Activity may remain locally severe as far east as OH/WV later tonight before weakening as they track into the mountains. ...Carolinas... The environment from the western Carolinas to the coast will be moderately unstable this afternoon, with a conditional risk of damaging winds and hail in persistent/robust thunderstorm clusters. However, 12z model guidance suggests very few storms will develop due to weak forcing aloft. Therefore will maintain only MRGL risk for today. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2022Read more SPC May 19, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon and evening across parts of Michigan, and perhaps extending into portions of the Midwest Friday night. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats, but a couple of tornadoes also appear possible in Lower Michigan. ...Great Lakes into the Midwest... A positively tilted upper trough will progress very slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Friday. A surface low is forecast to deepen as it develops northeastward across Ontario through the day, with a trailing cold front extending across the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and into the central/southern Plains. It appears likely that a substantial cap will inhibit surface-based thunderstorms along most of the front through the day. Still, slightly better forcing aloft associated with the approaching upper trough may allow for isolated convective development across parts of MI by Friday afternoon. If thunderstorms can form, they would pose a threat for all severe hazards across this region, as both instability and deep-layer shear appear favorable for supercells. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms may eventually develop along the length of the cold front from MO to the Midwest Friday evening/night. This activity would pose a threat for mainly isolated hail, although occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. Based on consensus of 12Z guidance, have confined the Slight Risk to parts of MI where the chances for surface-based convection during the day appear highest. ...Southern Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may form Friday afternoon and early evening along/east of a dryline as a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough moves over the region. Although mid-level flow will remain fairly modest, there should be enough effective bulk shear to support some updraft organization with any convection that can form. Isolated large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, as strong instability will be present owing to a moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates. The primary uncertainty remains overall coverage of convection, as large-scale ascent will remain rather weak along the length of the dryline. ...Mid-Atlantic... A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk. ..Gleason.. 05/19/2022Read more SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Observations show sunny skies across the Southwest, with RH already dropping below 20 percent at several locales. Continued boundary-layer heating/mixing will promote widespread 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH across much of the southwest into the southern High Plains later this afternoon. As such, the previous forecast remains on track, with slight expansions made to the Critical highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Similarly, dry northerly surface flow along the slopes of the higher terrain across the Sacramento Valley is still expected today into tonight, with dry westerly downslope flow likely later this afternoon across eastern Montana, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Finally, periodic dry and/or breezy surface conditions atop modestly dry fuels may still occur this afternoon across portions of Lower Michigan and the Southeast (see the previous forecast below for more details). ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... Strong lee cyclogenesis will occur today across the central Plains as a 100+ knot mid-level jet crosses the Inter-Mountain west and emerges over the Plains. The pressure field from this lee cyclone will be expansive and result in windy conditions across much of the western CONUS. ...Southwest into the southern/central High Plains... The pressure gradient will tighten across the Southwestern US today as a strong cyclone develops in the Plains. This will result in 20 to 25 mph winds from southern Nevada across the Southwest and into central Nebraska amid single digit relative humidity. Fuels are very dry across this region with numerous large fires ongoing. Therefore, rapid fire spread is possible on any existing fires and from any new fire starts. ...Eastern Montana and far western North Dakota... Strong low-level flow will develop across eastern Montana today as a surface low develops in northern North Dakota. Sustained winds above 30 mph are possible with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent. Fuels in this area are green, but there has not been any precipitation for over a week. Therefore, some of the finer fuels have started to cure, and at least some large fire threat will exist in these pockets of drier fuels. ...Northern Sacramento Valley... Strong northerly winds will develop this afternoon within the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is expected. ...Northern Lower Michigan.... Drier conditions are expected in northern Lower Michigan today (20 to 30 percent relative humidity) where fuels are critically dry. However, winds are expected to remain around 10 mph which precludes the need for an Elevated delineation. ...Portions of the Southeast... Relative humidity is expected to drop to 25 to 35 percent across much of the Southeast this afternoon during peak heating. Fuels are critically dry with ERC values above the 90th percentile. Some increase in initial attack is possible, but winds should remain too light (~10 mph) to support an Elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track for parts of the Southwest, with modest eastward extensions made to the Elevated and Critical areas into western Texas to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Otherwise, Elevated/locally Critical conditions remain possible across western portions of the Sacramento Valley, emanating from downslope flow along the lee of the Klamath Mountains, starting Friday morning and lasting through much of the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to deepen across West Texas Friday afternoon. This will tighten the pressure gradient and result in windy conditions across the Southwest. In addition, stronger mid-level flow will also overspread the dry airmass across the Southwest. Deep mixing is expected which should bring some of this stronger flow to the surface. Therefore, sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Northerly flow will develop in the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills with sustained surface winds of 15 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the upper teens. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted, particularly for the foothills where fuels have started to cure. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more |
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Data courtesy National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. | |
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