RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 244 SEVERE TSTM IN KY 191835Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Indiana
Central Kentucky
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms have begun to develop
over southwest Indiana and central Kentucky. A few of these storms
will pose a risk of hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the
afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southeast of
Bowling Green KY to 5 miles east northeast of Bloomington IN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 243...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
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WW 243 TORNADO MO 191750Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon and
track eastward across southern Missouri. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible this activity.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of
Springfield MO to 45 miles southeast of Farmington MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Hart
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WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0244 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 243
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..05/19/22
ATTN...WFO...SGF...PAH...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 243
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC009-017-023-029-031-035-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-
091-093-099-105-109-123-125-131-149-151-153-157-161-167-169-179-
181-186-187-201-203-207-209-213-215-221-223-225-229-191940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BOLLINGER BUTLER
CAMDEN CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER
CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE
HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MADISON
MARIES MILLER OREGON
OSAGE OZARK PERRY
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
REYNOLDS RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT SHANNON
STODDARD STONE TANEY
TEXAS WASHINGTON WAYNE
WEBSTER WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
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MD 0830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...Portions of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 191836Z - 192030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon along a
warm front near the Iowa/Minnesota border. These storms would be
capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large
hail. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift northward near the
Iowa/Minnesota border. Dewpoints near the boundary are generally in
the low 60s F. A narrow corridor of low/mid 60s F dewpoints exists
in southwestern Iowa with dewpoints in parts of central/eastern Iowa
mixing out into the upper 50s F. With an MCV currently in
southern/central Missouri, the degree and quality of moisture return
is uncertain with eastward extent. The KOAX/KFSD VWP have sampled
the 35-40 kts 850 mb winds that are helping to increase low-level
shear in the vicinity of the warm front. Objective mesoanalysis is
showing near 400 m2/s2 effective SRH right along the boundary in
northwest Iowa. Storms that form along and interact favorably with
the boundary will be capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes and very large hail. Should any storms move north of the
boundary, the tornado threat would be less, but large/very-large
hail would remain possible. Though low-level shear/SRH would suggest
the potential for a strong tornado, the continued decrease in
dewpoints within western/central Iowa makes this a low-probability
scenario. A tornado watch is likely within the next 2 hours.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43299535 43989493 44249450 44299372 43909299 43509248
42879237 42649326 42599422 43299535
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MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...southern Indiana into Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191818Z - 192045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms producing large hail and sporadic wind
damage are expected to persist for several more hours.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a substantial CU field across TN
and KY, with a surge of higher dewpoints northward. Storms have
erupted along this effective front over southern IN which also lies
within the 850 theta-e advection zone. Given continued heating and
the persistent diffuse moist advection zone, addition clusters of
storms may form east or southeastward into KY, with hail and
localized wind damage. The ongoing IN cluster may effectively
translate eastward, and additional isolated storms may develop to
its south over central KY.
..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 36938584 36918625 36988667 37208699 37578725 37778754
38068784 38208789 38428774 38998711 39218649 39178509
38818444 38128429 37588446 37228476 37058493 36938584
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MD 0828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Areas affected...southern Missouri into southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191717Z - 191945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A corridor of tornado, damaging wind and hail is likely to
develop across much of southern Missouri by 19Z, and into southern
Illinois by late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to form around the southern
periphery of the MCV circulation near Springfield MO and extending
west to Sarcoxie, and may be the beginnings of the severe event.
Visible imagery shows clearing downstream across southern MO, and
instability will only increase throughout the day as the previously
rain-cooled air modifies. Midlevel lapse rates are steep and will
result in vigorous updrafts. Wind fields associated with the MCV
will enhance shear and supercell potential, with 50 kt flow between
2-3 km. 0-1 SRH in excess of 100 m2/s2 will be sufficient for a
tornado threat. Damaging winds with a bow echo or QLCS will also be
possible if storm mode becomes more linear. As such, a watch will
likely be needed soon.
..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38339122 38648986 38628923 38428876 38158856 37888843
37628852 37298883 36958973 36759065 36739267 36829357
37079385 37369385 37569358 37989251 38339122
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible later this afternoon into early tonight across
northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Occasional large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may
also occur this afternoon from southern Missouri into parts of
Indiana/Kentucky.
...Upper MS Valley...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm
front extending eastward along the IA/MN border. This boundary will
lift slightly northward today, with a warm and moderately moist
airmass along and south of the front. A southerly low-level jet
will strengthen by mid-afternoon, enhancing convergence/lift along
the boundary and result in the development of intense thunderstorms.
Supercells map develop across the ENH risk area, capable of very
large hail and a tornado or two. During the evening, storms will
likely develop southwestward across western IA into eastern NE, with
a more localized risk of large hail and damaging winds.
...Lower OH Valley...
Satellite imagery shows a pronounced MCV over southwest MO. A
cluster of lead thunderstorms over eastern MO will limit northward
destabilization this afternoon, but a corridor of moderate/strong
instability will likely form ahead of the MCV from southern MO into
southern IL/IN and western KY. Thunderstorms are expected to form
in this area, posing an initial risk of large hail and a tornado or
two. 12z CAM solutions suggest the activity will grow upscale
during the evening with an increasing risk of damaging winds as the
storms move into IN/KY. Activity may remain locally severe as far
east as OH/WV later tonight before weakening as they track into the
mountains.
...Carolinas...
The environment from the western Carolinas to the coast will be
moderately unstable this afternoon, with a conditional risk of
damaging winds and hail in persistent/robust thunderstorm clusters.
However, 12z model guidance suggests very few storms will develop
due to weak forcing aloft. Therefore will maintain only MRGL risk
for today.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/19/2022
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MICHIGAN AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon and evening
across parts of Michigan, and perhaps extending into portions of the
Midwest Friday night. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible
across parts of the southern Plains during the afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary
threats, but a couple of tornadoes also appear possible in Lower
Michigan.
...Great Lakes into the Midwest...
A positively tilted upper trough will progress very slowly eastward
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Friday. A
surface low is forecast to deepen as it develops northeastward
across Ontario through the day, with a trailing cold front extending
across the Midwest, mid MS Valley, and into the central/southern
Plains. It appears likely that a substantial cap will inhibit
surface-based thunderstorms along most of the front through the day.
Still, slightly better forcing aloft associated with the approaching
upper trough may allow for isolated convective development across
parts of MI by Friday afternoon. If thunderstorms can form, they
would pose a threat for all severe hazards across this region, as
both instability and deep-layer shear appear favorable for
supercells. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms may eventually
develop along the length of the cold front from MO to the Midwest
Friday evening/night. This activity would pose a threat for mainly
isolated hail, although occasional strong/gusty winds may also
occur. Based on consensus of 12Z guidance, have confined the Slight
Risk to parts of MI where the chances for surface-based convection
during the day appear highest.
...Southern Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms may form Friday afternoon and early evening
along/east of a dryline as a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough
moves over the region. Although mid-level flow will remain fairly
modest, there should be enough effective bulk shear to support some
updraft organization with any convection that can form. Isolated
large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, as strong
instability will be present owing to a moist low-level airmass and
steep mid-level lapse rates. The primary uncertainty remains overall
coverage of convection, as large-scale ascent will remain rather
weak along the length of the dryline.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at
the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation
across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ
Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for
all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a
favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence
in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is
enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk.
..Gleason.. 05/19/2022
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Observations show sunny skies across the Southwest, with RH already
dropping below 20 percent at several locales. Continued
boundary-layer heating/mixing will promote widespread 20+ mph
sustained westerly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH across much
of the southwest into the southern High Plains later this afternoon.
As such, the previous forecast remains on track, with slight
expansions made to the Critical highlights to reflect the latest
guidance consensus.
Similarly, dry northerly surface flow along the slopes of the higher
terrain across the Sacramento Valley is still expected today into
tonight, with dry westerly downslope flow likely later this
afternoon across eastern Montana, warranting the maintenance of
Elevated highlights. Finally, periodic dry and/or breezy surface
conditions atop modestly dry fuels may still occur this afternoon
across portions of Lower Michigan and the Southeast (see the
previous forecast below for more details).
..Squitieri.. 05/19/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/
...Synopsis...
Strong lee cyclogenesis will occur today across the central Plains
as a 100+ knot mid-level jet crosses the Inter-Mountain west and
emerges over the Plains. The pressure field from this lee cyclone
will be expansive and result in windy conditions across much of the
western CONUS.
...Southwest into the southern/central High Plains...
The pressure gradient will tighten across the Southwestern US today
as a strong cyclone develops in the Plains. This will result in 20
to 25 mph winds from southern Nevada across the Southwest and into
central Nebraska amid single digit relative humidity. Fuels are very
dry across this region with numerous large fires ongoing. Therefore,
rapid fire spread is possible on any existing fires and from any new
fire starts.
...Eastern Montana and far western North Dakota...
Strong low-level flow will develop across eastern Montana today as a
surface low develops in northern North Dakota. Sustained winds above
30 mph are possible with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent.
Fuels in this area are green, but there has not been any
precipitation for over a week. Therefore, some of the finer fuels
have started to cure, and at least some large fire threat will exist
in these pockets of drier fuels.
...Northern Sacramento Valley...
Strong northerly winds will develop this afternoon within the
Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15 to
20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is expected.
...Northern Lower Michigan....
Drier conditions are expected in northern Lower Michigan today (20
to 30 percent relative humidity) where fuels are critically dry.
However, winds are expected to remain around 10 mph which precludes
the need for an Elevated delineation.
...Portions of the Southeast...
Relative humidity is expected to drop to 25 to 35 percent across
much of the Southeast this afternoon during peak heating. Fuels are
critically dry with ERC values above the 90th percentile. Some
increase in initial attack is possible, but winds should remain too
light (~10 mph) to support an Elevated delineation.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track for parts of the
Southwest, with modest eastward extensions made to the Elevated and
Critical areas into western Texas to reflect the latest guidance
consensus. Otherwise, Elevated/locally Critical conditions remain
possible across western portions of the Sacramento Valley, emanating
from downslope flow along the lee of the Klamath Mountains, starting
Friday morning and lasting through much of the afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 05/19/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/
...Synopsis...
A surface low is forecast to deepen across West Texas Friday
afternoon. This will tighten the pressure gradient and result in
windy conditions across the Southwest. In addition, stronger
mid-level flow will also overspread the dry airmass across the
Southwest. Deep mixing is expected which should bring some of this
stronger flow to the surface. Therefore, sustained winds of 20 to 25
mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits.
Northerly flow will develop in the northern Sacramento Valley and
adjacent foothills with sustained surface winds of 15 to 25 mph and
relative humidity in the upper teens. Therefore, an Elevated
delineation is warranted, particularly for the foothills where fuels
have started to cure.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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