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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 250228 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 828 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Upper level trof moving across Northern Colorado with drying noted on water vapor moving into Northern Mountains. Appears most of the activity has ended in the mountains and just left with isolated rain showers across lower elevations, but a bit more scattered coverage across Elbert and Lincoln counties. Only expect brief light rain and gusty winds with the remainder of the showers. Will adjust evening forecast for for local conditions with continued drying from west to east through midnight. Cold front up over Northern Wyoming which will push southward across the northeast plains later tonight through early Saturday morning. Expect gusty northeast winds developing and low clouds ushering in behind the front towards dawn. UPDATE Issued at 556 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Quick update as convective redevelopment occurring in areas north of Denver across Boulder and Weld counties. Redevelopment of storms due to approaching upper trof and jet streak over us now. Have updated forecast to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing through the evening hours, especially over locations North of Denver and spreading northeast over the plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Showers and storms are attempting to organize along the Front Range this afternoon as the shortwave approaches. This area will continue to push eastward across the plains through late afternoon/early evening and that should take the main brunt of the gusty outflow winds with it. Behind that, we still see some lingering convection with weaker instability left behind, but overall coverage and intensity of gusty outflow winds will be diminishing. Stronger subsidence builds in behind the shortwave by late this evening with clearing skies. Then, a cold front will move across the plains with moist low level upslope developing. This will bring areas of stratus to the Front Range and Plains, and also set the stage for storms with more significant rainfall later tomorrow. The airmass on the plains will initially be quite stable with the cooler and cloudier start to the day. Convective initiation will likely start in the Park and Summit County areas where MLCAPE reaches 500-1000 J/kg and CIN is eroded first, and then perhaps extending northward across portions of the Front Range by early afternoon. Showers and storms should become more widespread with persistent moist upslope flow, and gradually spread eastward. Taking initial stability into consideration, it could take most of the day before we see showers/storms spread across the Denver metro area, while the northeast plains will remain dry through the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue Saturday night and Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the southern Foothills and Palmer Divide are expected to increase in coverage and spread into at least portions of the Denver metro overnight as weak lift remains in place. Skinny CAPE profiles are evident on BUFKIT soundings, especially along and south of I-70. Light upslope flow and weak synoptic scale ascent from some mid-level FGEN and a departing jet streak should be enough to get showers into the metro, with the better odds of seeing a soaking rainfall in Park County and the Palmer Divide. Much of this precipitation will shift into southeast Colorado by Sunday morning. Model QPF varies quite a bit, especially in the higher resolution guidance, but 0.20-0.50 inches of rain seems like a decent bet along and south of a line from Boulder to Denver, with locally higher totals (up to an inch or two) in the southern Foothills, Park County, and Palmer Divide. Cool temperatures are expected to persist across the plains on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and just an isolated shower or two. Guidance shows better moisture returning to the mountains - especially along/west of the divide - and another round of showers and storms is likely across the high country. Soundings only show modest instability, but PWATs near 0.5-0.8 inches and weak winds through the cloud layer cause some concern for burn area flash flooding. A gradual warming and drying trend is expected early next week. Temperatures on Monday should bounce back into the 80s, with 90s possible Tuesday through the rest of the week. Monsoonal moisture should still be over the area Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier conditions are forecast Tuesday. Guidance hints at ridging breaking down by mid/late next week while a better surge of moisture also tries to creep into our area... which would lead to an increase in thunderstorms. To quote the midnight shift, "we`ll see". && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 825 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 A few light showers still lingering around Denver but these will be ending by 03z. Surface winds still are generally west to northwest for now but should settle back to a southwest wind after 04z. Cold front expected into terminals around 11-12z with MVFR cigs developing behind it with increasing low level moisture and northeast upslope flow. Airmass will be stable much of the day but may get some thunderstorms going after 23z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 The main threat of storms with locally heavy rain will be shifting east of the mountains and out of the burn areas late this afternoon and early evening. There would only be a limited threat of flash flooding for the burn areas until ~6 pm. On Saturday, moisture and higher Precipitable Water (PW) values near 1" pool in/near the southern Front Range Foothills and Palmer Divide. This is shaping up to be a potential locally heavy rain event with warm cloud depth increasing to >5000 feet and skinny CAPE profile supporting efficient rain processes. Deep east/southeast flow pushes up into Park County and the southern foothills. Overall, this setup really favors locations just to our south in El Paso and Teller Counties (given the southeast flow), but locally heavy rainfall totals of 1-2" will be possible in our southern foothills and Park County through Saturday evening. Fortunately, we don`t have any recent burn areas where the heaviest rain should fall. However, we`ll still have a limited flash flood threat for the rest of our burn areas as they will likely be on the edge of more widespread and heavier convection. A limited threat of burn area flash flooding will persist through much of the week as we continue to see monsoonal moisture in the area. Sunday`s threat should generally be west of the divide (East Troublesome) where there should be enough instability for thunderstorms in a moist environment. Storm motions will also be relatively slow. Widely scattered thunderstorms should develop Monday afternoon, with the overall environment is again marginally supportive of heavy rain. Tuesday will be the driest day of the week, before another push of monsoonal moisture arrives by the second half of next week. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Hiris AVIATION...Entrekin HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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