National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 061656
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1056 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Only minor changes needed this morning: A little more high
cloudiness across the north, but it should be thin enough to have
little effect on temperature. It also looks like we`ll be a little
windier/drier than expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Another warm spring day is in the forecast, but there will be more
sunshine and a couple more degrees of warming over yesterday.
The fog over the northeast corner of the state had developed as
expected with a light and moist easterly push. This has moved
back to around Sterling (a little farther west), but that should
be about as far as it makes it as lee troughing will be kicking in
early this morning. We`ll see that fog dissipate rather quickly
by 8-9 AM and then nearly fully sunshine behind that. After slight
cooling aloft overnight, we`ll see warm advection through the
afternoon hours and thus, most of the plains will see highs push
into the 70s. Not much change expected over the high country, with
upper 50s and 60s foothills, and 45 to 55 mountains.
West/southwest breezes will increase in most areas this afternoon
with sufficient mixing.

For tonight, we`ll see a further increase in mountain winds as
flow aloft strengthens. Cross mountain flow increases to around 40
knots, and there should be a few puffs of very warm wind down the
Front Range Foothills with strengthening lee trough overnight.
That will keep some locations in/near the foothills holding in
the 40s, and possibly a couple spots not dropping below 50F
tonight where winds hold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020

The early Spring warm spell will continue through Tuesday with an
upper ridge aloft over the state being fed by warm southwesterly
flow downstream from an upper low over southern California. The
plains will see another afternoon with highs in the 70s and
mountain locations seeing 40s to near 60. The afternoon on the
plains will see humidity levels dropping to the lower teens and
some west winds gusting to 20-25 MPH along the northern border.
This will create a rise in fire danger ratings, but conditions
look too marginal for any fire weather highlights at this time.

Wednesday looks like it will be a transitional day as the
southwestern U.S. upper level low begins rotating moisture across
the mountains, mainly impacting the mountains. Afternoon showers
could develop over the high country and increasing high clouds on
the plains will cut temperatures back a few degrees. Highs
will still be 5 degrees warmer than normal though. More cooling is
expected Thursday as a surge of cooler air moves in from the
north. Upslope conditions behind the cold front will produce
shower activity over the foothills and out onto the plains. The
mountains will also see snow showers from moisture rotating over
the state from the southwest.

From Friday through the weekend, it appears an unsettled weather
pattern will produce colder than normal temperatures and periods
of precipitation. The latest model runs have been trending colder
for the weekend, and ensemble members are showing a wide spread
of possible temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. The operational
runs of the ECMWF and GFS point toward the colder end of the
spectrum, so the forecast highs over the weekend will probably be
working their way down as successive model runs confirm the
cooling trend. Even now, the forecast for Easter morning looks
cold enough for a chance of snow in the mountains and down to the
I-25 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020

VFR conditions will persist through tonight. Southwest winds
should hold for a good chunk of the day, although a late push of
somewhat stronger westerlies with gusts around 20 knots possible
after 21Z. Then winds will turn back to south/southwest around 10
knots 02Z-05Z. KBJC could see a few gusts to 20 knots hold
overnight due to lee troughing and a bit of mountain wave
enhancement.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020

The southern portions of the forecast area will have elevated
fire danger again this afternoon, but not quite enough for a Red
Flag Warning. South Park has the wind but is marginal on the
humidity, while the Palmer Divide into Lincoln County will have
the humidity but just shy on the winds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion