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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 191003 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 303 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 222 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2020 The building ridge of high pressure, currently over the Great Basin this morning, will continue to strengthen today while slowly migrating east over the full stretch of the Rockies. This will place northern Colorado under weakening northwesterly flow aloft. A very subtle and weak upper level wave in the flow will nudge a weak northerly wind shift onto the plains later this afternoon. This will likely keep a few hours of an east to northeasterly surface component to the winds again for today. However, with widespread subsidence in control over the northern and central Rockies, temperatures will be allowed to warm over Satruday`s highs. With a lack of the mid and upper level Pacific moisture streaming around the top of the ridge today, more sunshine is expected as skies are expected to be mostly sunny across much of the region. For tonight, as the widespread subsidence continues to dominate into Monday, light drainage winds will be the rule with overnight temperatures held above the seasonal average. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 222 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2020 For Monday, high amplitude ridge builds over Colorado with dry and warming airmass along with weak flow aloft. 700mb temperatures climb to around 0C at Denver, so expect temperatures to rise into the upper 40s and 50s across the plains. For Monday night and Tuesday, the ridge aloft will shift east into the central plains as a weak disturbance expected to move across Colorado on Tuesday. This will bring a good chance of snow to the mountains and a bit cooler. Still looks dry on the plains with only weak upward QG ascent and lack of any cold front (continuing downslope flow). Mountain snowfall looks to be in the 1-3 inch range light snow event with rather weak forcing and relatively shallow moisture. A stronger storm system is expected to move from the Northern Rockies and drop southeastward across the region in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame, but still low confidence with overall track of the storm. There has been a more general trend of the long range models to intensify the storm across the central plains and probably leaving much of Colorado to far west from the brunt of the storm. The latest European and Canadian solutions intensify the low further east over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. The GFS has also shifted the storm a bit further east but still leaving the plains of eastern Colorado with still a good shot of wind and snow. The I-25 corridor may be left dry and windy. For now, cooler temperatures and at least a slight chance of showers will remain in the forecast. Would expect further track changes as we get closer to the event, as GFS ensemble solutions are all over the board. For Friday and through next weekend, high pressure aloft builds across the region with dry and warmer weather returning to Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 222 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2020 VFR conditions are expected for Sunday with no significant impacts over the next 24 hrs. After the overnight drainage flow mixes out by late Sunday morning, a redevelopment of light east to northeast winds are expected after 18Z. With a developing ridge aloft and no significant pressure gradients in the vicinity of the Rockies, Sunday evening will experience a return of the local light drainage surface flow over the Denver Metro area. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fredin LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Fredin NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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