National Weather Service Forecast Discussion for Thornton and Denver, Colorado

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 231021
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
321 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

Today should be a mild and quiet day across the forecast area.
Weak northwest flow is expected through the day with little
moisture aloft. Other than some occasional high clouds there
should be mostly sunny skies. Weak downslope and warming mid-level
temperatures will lead to a warmer day than Saturday. The
combination of these factors should add about 10F to yesterday`s
highs meaning most spots in the plains will hit 45-55F today.
Some cool air will hang around over Middle and North Park with
highs only in the 25-30F range.

Quiet weather will continue overnight tonight. Mild lows are
expected across the urban corridor while the usual cold spots in
the mountain valleys drop down into the single digits again. A
weak cold front will push south towards the forecast area by late
tonight but should arrive after daybreak on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

On Mon, an upper level trough will approach from the nrn Rockies.
Ahead of this feature, the flow aloft will be northwest with some
moisture moving into the area, by late aftn. At the sfc, a cool
front will move across the plains with north to northwest flow
behind it. Can`t completely rule out a few showers, mainly near
the WY border, by 00z, however most of the area should be dry
thru the aftn. Highs across the plains will be in the mid 40s to
around 50.

For Mon night into Tue, the upper level trough will move across the
area.  Tonight`s model runs have a more defined system versus last
night with overall timing somewhat similar.  There will be a decent
shot of QG ascent later Mon night thru 18z Tue. In addition, a
2nd surge of colder air will move into nern CO as well, and
enhance upslope flow along the front range, by 12z Tue.
Furthermore an upper level jet will be over the area Mon night so
could see banded snow develop as well. Overall, should see snow
increase near the CO-WY border Mon night, with activity spreading
southward across the rest of the area, by 12z Tue. Snow will then
gradually end from north to south thru Tue aftn. Snowfall amounts
look mainly in the advisory range, however, can`t rule out some
heavier snowfall in and near the foothills. Highs on Tue will be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s over nern CO.

Tue night into Wed, drier air will continue to spread southward
across the area, in NNW flow aloft, with no precip expected.
Highs on Wed will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the
plains. However, new snow cover may keep highs colder in some
areas.

Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, mainly dry northwest flow aloft will
be over the area.  Thus will continue with a dry fcst.  Another cold
front will affect nern CO, on Thu, which may drop highs back into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. On Fri, downslope low level flow will
increase which will lead to moderating temps over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 303 AM MST Sun Jan 23 2022

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Drainage winds this morning
will give way to light and variable winds in the afternoon with
drainage winds returning this evening. A weak cold front will pass
through the terminals after 12z Monday with northerly flow behind
it. No ceiling or visibility impacts are anticipated with only a
few high clouds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Hiris

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