449
FXUS65 KBOU 122049
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
149 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for light precipitation over portions of the
  plains Friday evening into Saturday.

- Mostly dry and above normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Focus shifts to elevated to critical fire weather concerns from
  Sunday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Current radar and observations show light snow is still falling
across the higher elevations late this morning. While overnight
accumulations didn`t quite live up to their potential, we have
received reports ranging from around 2-5 inches across the
northern mountains, with the Mount Zirkel SNOTEL site coming in at
9 inches through early this morning. Snow is expected to
gradually diminish through the day today allowing for some more
time to get additional light accumulations. With the heaviest
snowfall behind us and only light accumulations expected from here
on out, we have allowed the winter highlights to expire for our
mountain zones. For those traveling into the mountains today,
there could still be some slick travel conditions over the high
mountain passes, but CDOT cams indicate roads are generally just
wet at this time.

For the rest of today, lingering moisture and cloud cover will help
keep above-normal temperatures in place across the forecast area.
With drier lower levels in place across the plains, virga showers
are expected to move off the higher terrain and bring a shot at some
light precipitation reaching the ground this afternoon through this
evening, with the most likely locations to benefit being along the
Palmer Divide and the Wyoming border. Anything that falls is
expected to be light and in the form of rain, but there is potential
for some gusty outflows (20-25 kts) to occur as virga passes
overhead across the plains.

West to WSW winds aloft are expected on Friday as a trough moves
across the Desert Southwest, bringing increased Pacific moisture
into the Rockies. QG lift will increase ahead of the trough
beginning late Friday morning. This will bring another round of
light mountain snow beginning Friday morning, increasing with the
best lift after around 11 AM. On trend with the 2026 winter
season, and as our luck would have it, the best forcings will stay
to the south of the forecast area, so the greatest precipitation
amounts will do the same. The Central Mountains will be favored in
this flow pattern, with 3-6 inches of new snowfall accumulations
expected through Saturday morning. Went ahead and lowered PoPs for
the northern plains on Saturday, but suspect they will be lowered
slightly more in the coming forecast packages, with the southern
portion of the plains and the Palmer Divide expected to have the
best shot at some accumulating precip. Looking like around
.10-.20" of QPF will be possible across portions of Elbert and
Lincoln Counties when all is said and done Saturday afternoon.
Models are also in agreement that light QPF (a few hundredths to
under .10") will be possible along the urban corridor with this
passing system, though only areas above 7,500 feet should expect
to see snow, as temperatures will be too warm until early Saturday
morning at the lower elevation, when things are already starting
to wind down.


Behind the trough, ridging is expected to rebuild across the region
for a few days. Our focus will shift back to developing fire weather
concerns by Sunday afternoon. Sunday through mid week is expected to
be anomalously warm, with afternoon high temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 60s across the plains, and little in terms
of moisture expected until at least Tuesday, which is largely
expected to remain anchored to the higher elevations.
Southwesterly flow is expected to start increasing on Monday,
becoming further enhanced on Tuesday and again on Wed, as
troughing redevelops over the western CONUS and a potent 250 mb
jet (150-180 kts) positions itself from SW to NE across the state
through the period. Relative humidity values will drop into the
teens each afternoon beginning on Sunday, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected to develop over South Park and
portions of the eastern plains where winds may reach critical fire
weather criteria for a brief time in the afternoon. By Monday,
critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the southern plains as winds begin increasing. The NBM shows wind
gusts could potentially range from 45-60 mph by Tuesday afternoon
across a large portion of the lower elevations and foothills.
While relative humidities aren`t forecast to reach critical values
along the foothills, they will be marginal, and with winds of
this magnitude coinciding with multiple days of above-normal temps
and dry conditions leading up to this, at a minimum, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected along the foothills and urban
corridor and eastward across the plains, with similar fire
weather conditions expected again on Wednesday, and possibly into
Thursday. Stay tuned for more details as we get closer, but we
expect fire weather to be our main focus for the week, with plenty
of time for details to shift or change as we get closer.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1040 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least early this afternoon.
Winds are currently VRB at both DEN and APA with light NE winds at
BJC. Winds at BJC will turn to be E by early afternoon, but stay
light. As the afternoon progresses, modeling shows that there
will be plenty of virga around the area (potentially affecting all
3 sites), so we expect a broken deck around 6000 ft and the
potential for MVFR conditions to occur. If showers are stronger
than expected, CIGs could be a little lower than 6000 ft. For
this evening, winds at BJC will be northerly and then eventually
NW and then SW by tomorrow morning.

For DEN and APA, by late this evening into tomorrow morning,
winds will become light and variable and then eventually drainage.
Overnight, there is the potential for a lower broken deck to occur around
1200 feet, but kept a TEMPO in place for now and will let this be
updated in future forecast packages. Models show quite a bit of
moisture just off the deck but guidance is uncertain that stratus
actually make it to DEN. For tomorrow, a typical diurnal pattern
is expected to be in place at DEN with winds turning clockwise
from S to NE as the day progresses.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion