National Weather Service Forecast Discussion for Thornton and Denver, Colorado

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 160921
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
321 AM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021

A nice autumn weather day is shaping up after a chilly start. An
upper level ridge building into the Central Rockies will bring
warm advection, sunny skies, and light winds. High temperatures
will be able to push into the mid to upper 60s across the plains,
with 50s to lower 60s foothills and high mountain valleys, and
mostly 40s higher mountains.

Clear skies will prevail tonight with low temperatures moderating
somewhat. However, the dry airmass and light winds will still
allow for strong radiational cooling in low lying areas and high
mountain valleys. We`ll start the small thermal belt in/near the
base of the foothills with a light downslope component and warm
advection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021

A dominate ridge pattern will remain over the entire state through
early next week. Warm afternoon highs, mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions will continue Sunday morning into the afternoon.
Likewise, similar conditions and above normal temperatures are
expected for Monday afternoon where high temperatures will reach
the lower 70s for the plains, lower 60s for the foothill areas and
lower 50s for the mountain areas.

The main area of concern in the long-term forecast arrives Tuesday
morning as low pressure system pushes through southeastern Wyoming.
This is the best chance of precipitation in upcoming week; although
every long-range model (GFS, NBM, ECMWF) has only our northern
mountain zones into the northern foothills receiving some amount of
QPF Tuesday morning through the afternoon. These QPF amounts remain
minimal under an quarter of an inch. The challenge within this
forecast is how much cold air will this system bring to especially
with the the highest PoPs occurring on Tuesday morning. For now,
northern mountain areas such as Walden and Granby will receive light
snow and the northern foothills (Estes Park, Red Feather Lake)
receive a snow to rain transition Tuesday morning. With this system
moving northeast quickly, areas outside of the northern Front Range
mountains and foothills are unlikely to receive any precipitation.

After Tuesday, another ridge pattern for dry weather begins through
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Cloud free skies should prevail through the period with fairly
normal diurnal wind patterns. No aviation impacts expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

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