802
FXUS65 KBOU 141208
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
608 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy today.

- The best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be today,
  mainly along and south of I-70.

- Temperatures heat back up next week.

- Increasing fire weather concerns on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Current nighttime microphysics shows low stratus are socked in
along the Front Range and the majority of the plains late tonight.
This will continue to be the story for much of the day today,
which will result in much cooler temperatures across the forecast
area. The warmest temperatures are expected in Middle Park today
where the forecast calls for highs to climb into the mid 70s.
Everywhere else is expected to be in the 60s, which will be about
15 to 20 degrees below the norm for June.

Zonal flow aloft will begin to transition to the northwest through
the day today as upper-level ridging pushes eastward across the
western CONUS. A shortwave will cross the Rockies to the north
and with a little instability expected over the central mountains,
we could see showers and a few weak storms develop this
afternoon. With stable conditions expected over the plains, these
likely won`t hold together for long as they move off the higher
terrain, but we could see some light precipitation along the
foothills and adjacent plains. The best chances still remain south
of I-70. With wildfires still burning to the north in Wyoming and
Nebraska, can`t rule out the smell of smoke or some hazy
conditions for the northern urban corridor through the morning.

Monday will be a transition day as subsidence takes hold and 700mb
temperatures start to warm up. Dry conditions are expected and
afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s across the
plains before things heat back up to the 80s and 90s for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Low-level moisture should remain elevated enough
to keep critical fire weather conditions at bay Monday. Tuesday
and Wednesday will be hot, dry, and winds will increase with
tightening pressure gradients. The GEFS HDWI continues to show
that Wednesday will push us above the climatological 95th
percentile, meaning this will likely be a critical fire weather
day for much of the forecast area. A cold front is still on track
to pass across the forecast area sometime Wednesday night that
will cool things down for Thursday. The aforementioned ridge will
continue to dominate the weather across the western CONUS through
the week, with the axis passing over the Rockies Friday and
Saturday. This will warm things back up into the 90s into the
weekend, with chances for precipitation starting to return to the
forecast area by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 550 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Low stratus are in place across the TAF sites this morning as
persistent upslope flow has kept them gradually lowering through
the night. Light rain showers are currently in place just north of
the TAF sites (KFNL/KLMO), and can`t completely rule out this
developing through the morning at the TAF sites, but confidence
is too low to add to the TAF at this time. CIG seem to be hanging
around 030-040 but we could see them drop as low as 020 in the
next two hours. We should see CIG lift out of MVFR between 17-18Z,
with some brief scattering out between 20-22Z, but expecting
lower CIGs to return along with some better shower potential (best
chances for KAPA) for the late afternoon/early evening.

A cyclone is still on track to form early this morning. This is
expected to bring northerly winds to KBJC and KAPA by the
afternoon, with a shear zone potentially setting up over KAPA
between 16-18Z that would have south-southeasterly winds on its
southerly flank and some sort of northerly component on its
northern flank. This makes for plenty of uncertainty on what winds
will do, and largely depends on where the cyclone forms. For now,
there is fairly decent agreement in guidance that winds at KDEN
will turn in a counterclockwise pattern starting from the
southeast by early morning, and move to northeasterly by 21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion