939
FXUS65 KBOU 022108
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
208 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow showers continue through this afternoon, with
  locally moderate accumulations in the Park Range and parts of
  the northern mountains.

- Stronger downslope winds Sunday, combined with warm/dry
  conditions, may lead to high fire danger for parts of the
  foothills and I-25 corridor.

- Additional round of mountain snow expected Monday into Tuesday,
  favoring the northern mountains again.

- Lower elevations to remain dry through Wednesday, with signs of
  a potential colder and wetter pattern thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 208 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

Light snow showers continue across the northern and central
mountains this afternoon, with the greatest travel impacts seen
across our high mountain passes. With light snow expected to
continue through the afternoon, the current Winter Weather
Advisory will be allowed to continue through 5 PM. With
temperatures dropping after sunset, we could still see some slick
spots develop where roads have been wet today, so continue to use
caution while driving tonight, especially over our high mountain
passes.

For tonight, expect to see improving conditions across the forecast
area as the evening progresses. Any lingering light snow showers in
the high country will come to an end through the evening, and mostly
clear skies will settle in across the lower elevations. With the
clearing skies overhead and some cooler air streaming in from the
north through the evening, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
than last night, with the coldest temperatures expected across the
low-lying areas on the plains, and in our mountain valleys where
below freezing temperatures are expected. Areas along the base of
the foothills will be our warmest spots where typical compressional
warming associated with winds coming down the mountains will help
moderate temperatures, keeping them above the freezing mark.

High pressure will move east over the region Saturday, with the
upper-level ridge axis sliding overhead by the afternoon. 700 mb
temperatures increase by 3-6C over today, which will bring a
slight increase to afternoon high temperatures in locations where
clouds are more sparse, bringing upper 50s to low 60s back to the
lower elevations. With ridging and subsidence overhead, dry
conditions are expected across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 208 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten Sunday and migrate east
into the plains, giving way to enhanced southwest flow aloft ahead
of an approaching jet max. Despite some resulting cold air advection
at higher levels, QG fields show broad subsidence will be firmly in
place, boosting compressional warming in the lee of the Front Range.
The unseasonal warmth is thus expected to peak Sunday, with highs
that will climb well into the mid to locally upper 60`s, and making
a run at daily records.

Cross-sections indicate 45-60 kt flow at 650mb Sunday with a good
perpendicular component, as well as potential for reverse shear
profiles aloft. Signals are mixed with respect to the presence of
stable layer, although this is often the case at such lead times. In
essence, leeside slopes of the Front Range mountains and foothills
can expect strong west winds through the day with gusts 50-70 mph.
Adjacent lower elevations may see a condensed period of west winds
with gusts mostly 30-50 mph, with isolated higher gusts in wind-
prone corridors, however confidence remains medium at best with the
finer details still to be resolved. Low humidity is anticipated,
with our forecast leaning drier than almost all guidance given the
known high model bias during these patterns. With critical fire
weather conditions being favored (60-75% chance) across portions of
the foothills, western urban corridor and the Palmer Divide, a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued. There are certainly still potential
failure modes with this wind event, both with regard to spatial
extent of winds, as well as timing alignment with lower humidity
conditions (there are some suggestions the strongest winds may
retreat fast enough in the afternoon to buffer fire weather
concerns).

A gradual cooling trend will commence Monday regionwide, when
attention shifts to our high country as another round of snow
arrives and continues into Tuesday. Strengthened zonal flow should
result in improved orographics which again look to favor our Park
Range and northern Front Range mountains. Snow ratios would be
closer to seasonal averages (aiding in snowfall efficiency), however
there`s still a sizable QPF spread in ensemble guidance leading
to variability in potential impacts.

As we head into the middle to latter portions of next week, ensemble
mean solutions lean towards a transition from our current pattern of
weak shortwaves to one of greater trough amplification over the
western CONUS, opening the door to both notably colder temperatures
as well as snowfall opportunities extending into the lower
elevations. The scenarios which depict a more favorable cutoff low
progression to our south pinpoint January 8-9th as the timeframe to
watch for more widespread winter weather impacts. Time will
tell...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR to persist through the TAF period. Current light and variable
winds are expected to turn towards the north between 19-20Z
across the TAF sites early this afternoon. While some gusty
westerly winds are likely to make their way into KBJC through the
afternoon, both KAPA and KDEN should see winds remaining from the
north (between 330-010) through ~2Z, when light and variable winds
are expected to return before southerly winds settle in for the
overnight hours and the remainder of the TAF period.

Main concern for Saturday will be whether the persistent
southerly winds lead to the formation of a cyclone in the later
afternoon hours.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ031-
033.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for COZ214-216-239>241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...9
LONG TERM...BRQ
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion