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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 290605 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1105 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 742 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 Radar and observations showing light snow gradually filling in across much of the plains of northeast Colorado this evening. Light snow also just inching into northern portions of the Denver area as well. There has been light accumulations over the far northern plains, generally a dusting to close to an inch like locations around Fort Collins. FTG 88D only showing shallow northeast upslope flow to lowest 2 gates but there is a jet core over northwest Colorado which will slide across northern Colorado through late tonight. Based on above observations have increased pops to likely for light snow over norther sections and bumped up accumulations a couple of tenths this evening. Expect the light snow to gradually decrease after midnight but low clouds/patchy fog will remain over lower elevations. Not seeing much in the way of freezing drizzle but did see a few web cams on the plains earlier with iced up lenses. Expect temperatures to continue to drop tonight given single digits already moving into northern border areas with Wyoming and Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 136 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A moderate to strong zonal flow is will be over northern CO through this evening, with an area of weak mid/upper level qg ascent in place as a short wave trough move across WY. MRMS is showing some snow banding occurring over the mountains and spreading into the urban corridor early this afternoon. A colder airmass has spread into nearly all of northeast plains and will settle along the Front Range Foothills and Palmer Divide through Sunday. The best chance of snow through this evening will be through this evening as the Pacific moisture continues to overrun the shallow arctic airmass. Although the depth of the moisture will be fairly shallow from the urban corridor eastward, there will be enough moisture in the mid/upper level coupled with the upper level jet to keep the banded snowfall in place until 01-02z. Will continue with the Winter highlights for the mountains through 5 pm this afternoon, but no plans to extend them at this time. The banded snowfall could be an issue for skiers making their way back to Denver this afternoon, so be prepared for possible delays. Later in the evening, spatial cross-sections show some drying in the mid/upper levels which could lead to a brief period of light freezing later this evening. Late tonight into Sunday, light snowfall may linger primarily along the west facing slopes north of Interstate 70, but decreasing elsewhere with weakening upper level support. Across the northeast plains, the low level moisture will deepen slightly, but it will be cold enough to stay as light snow. South of Interstate 70 over eastern Elbert and Lincoln counties, there will be less moisture aloft with no seeders. Best chance of fog will be down in this area tonight into Sunday morning. On Sunday another trough drops southward out of the Pacific Northwest. Generally weak mid/upper level qg ascent with the best moisture through the afternoon over zone 31. Although the best chance of accumulating snowfall will be north of I-70, there are no plans to expand the winter weather highlights into zone 33 at this time. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A shortwave trough looks to move over northeastern Colorado Sunday to Monday night. There is some model variability in timing and location. The surface low will likely be located over southeastern Colorado which will bring weak upslope flow to the area. Along with this trough a cold air mass will be in place and near record temperatures could be reached early in the week. Sunday we increased POPs over what NBM had, with weak upslope flow less than one inch of snow is expected for lower elevations through Monday. The northern mountains will continue to see heavier snowfall. Along the I-70 mountain corridor lighter snowfall amounts are expected. Temperatures will drop off significantly with highs in the teens and lows into the negative single digits. Windchill temperatures will be well into the negative teens. Monday will remain cold and snow will begin to lessen over the northern mountains as the trough exits. Light upslope flow will continue which could give light flurries to the front range and plains with less than one inch of accumulation. Windchill temperatures will be much colder Monday morning especially for the plains with values close the the negative 20 degree mark. Tuesday the trough will hopefully have passed and winds switch back to a more westerly flow. Thanks to this downslope flow we will see some warming across the front range. Temperatures could climb back into the high 20s to low 30s. Wednesday through Friday show drying and warming with a small ridge building Wednesday night through Friday. Another chance at a shortwave trough comes through Friday evening into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1041 PM MST Sat Jan 28 2023 A band of snow showers is currently over the Denver metro area which is impacting all terminals. DEN and APA will see visibility between 1-2 miles due to snow along with ceilings in the 1-3 kft range until 08Z. Then, the band of snow will dissipate and only a few passing flurries are expected overnight tonight and during the day Sunday. The tricky part will be whether low clouds and/or fog develop later tonight and Sunday morning. The current thinking is that fog will not develop due to the snow reducing the amount of low level moisture. However, fog remains a possibility with visibility reaching a half mile at all terminals if fog were to develop tonight. IFR conditions will last through the majority of the day on Sunday as ceilings will be in the 1-3 kft range with visibility between 2-4 miles. Snow showers are expected to develop again Sunday evening. Otherwise, winds will be rather light. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for COZ031. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Chavez/Gimmestad AVIATION...Danielson NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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