National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 280656
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1256 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022

We got one cluster of storms that survived on the plains north of
Greeley. It`s showing signs of weakening, but has fairly warm
wet air feeding in from the southeast, so it may chug along for a
couple more hours. Elsewhere the weak instability has already
been released. The remnant mid level clouds will drift east but
the precipitation is about done. Minor adjustments at this hour to
the PoPs and cloud cover, with no other changes for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022

GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery this afternoon shows a few deeper
convective clouds trying to develop across the high country this
afternoon. A few of the cells in Park County have grown enough to
produce a few lightning strikes, along with some light rain.
Across the plains, it`s mostly sunny and much warmer than
yesterday, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The only
exception to this has been southern Lincoln county, where cloud
cover has kept temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.

Mountain convection will continue through the afternoon and
eventually push out into the plains this evening. It appears too
capped along the I-25 corridor for any meaningful storms, though
we could see a period of gusty winds this evening as decaying
showers spit out some outflow.

Warmer and drier conditions are expected Tuesday as a broad ridge
axis slowly drifts from the Great Basin to the Four Corners
region. Mid-level temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than
today, so highs in the low 90s appear likely across the plains.
MOS guidance generally agrees with this and another 90F day for
Denver is increasingly likely. There should be just enough
moisture in the high country for some showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm, but little to no rainfall is expected.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across the
plains as humidities fall below 15%.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022

An upper level high will be over the swrn US on Wed with weak
westerly flow aloft. There will be some increase in monsoon
moisture which will bring a better chc of aftn showers and storms
to the higher terrain. Outflow boundaries from this activity may
trigger isold to widely sct higher based storms along the I-25
Corridor. Highs will be above normal across nern CO with readings
mainly in the 95 to 100 degree range.

For Thu, the upper level high will weaken, with WSW flow aloft.
Current data shows deepening monsoon moisture moving into the area.
In addition, a cool front will move across nern CO. Combination
of this front and increasing moisture should allow for a better
chc of showers and storms. Highs will drop back into the 80s to
near 90 across the plains.

On Fri, little change is expected as will continue to see a flow
of monsoon moisture, across the area, with better instability.
Thus should see another round of showers and storms with heavy
rainfall possible in a few storms. Highs will stay in the 80s
across the plains.

Looking ahead to the weekend, it appears flow of monsoon moisture
will continue to affect the area.  Weak disturbances embedded in the
flow will allow for a good chc of showers/storms over the higher
terrain.  Across the plains, MLCAPE will be in the 1000-1500 j/kg
range so may see a few stronger storms.  Highs will be near seasonal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1242 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are settling
into drainage for the night as storms dissipate and exit and the
area. Tomorrow, winds should come around clockwise through the
morning with diurnal heating to northeasterly by afternoon. Then
an increasing easterly to southerly flow through the evening
before drainage winds set in again tomorrow night. Storms and
showers should be mostly confined to the terrain tomorrow, but
some gusty outflow winds may affect the terminals especially KBJC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Elevated fire danger is anticipated Tuesday as warmer and drier
weather returns to the area. Over the plains and lower foothills,
minimum humidities will fall below 15%. Winds are generally
expected to remain below criteria so headlines aren`t currently
being considered for tomorrow.

Hot temperatures combined with low humidity levels and gusty south
winds will bring increased fire conditions to portions of the plains
on Wednesday.  Thus a fire weather watch has been issued for this
areas near the Nebraska border.  A shift to a wetter and cooler
pattern will occur Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022

The threat of burn area flash flooding this afternoon will be low.
A few showers and storms could develop across the Front Range and
foothills, but rainfall rates are not expected to be intense.
Drier weather is expected Tuesday with a very low threat of any
flash flooding.

The threat of burn scar flash flooding will increase from
Thursday into Friday and may linger through next weekend.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for COZ242-248-250-251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...EJD
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris/RPK
HYDROLOGY...Hiris/RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion