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561 FXUS65 KBOU 100700 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 100 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures to continue today and Tuesday, then start to cool Wednesday and fall below normal Thursday. - Another round of high-based virga showers today. Wind gusts of30-45 mph are possible from the showers. - Slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms over far northeast Colorado late this afternoon and evening. - Monsoon moisture becomes plentiful beginning Wednesday bringing daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the rest week and weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The upper level high will continue to be centered over the Southern and Central Rockies today and Tuesday. Moisturehas infiltrated the ridge at the mid and upper levels. Satellite imagery shows a largearea of mid and high clouds over Colorado and upstream across the Great Basin. This is expected to keep skies mostly cloudy, though a brief period of partly cloudy skies is possible. This will allow enough sunshineto push highs into the mid to upper 90s today. Models show the airmass is a degree or two warmer today, but the increase in cloud cover should offset this. Precipitable water values will be 0.6 to 0.9 (in), which is slightly above normal over the higher terrain but below normal across the plains. This will yield another round of high-based virga showers today. DCAPE values will be 600-900 J/kg a little less than yesterday, which should keep wind gust speeds under 45 mph. Like yesterday, low level moisture may prevail over far northeast Colorado where one or two strong/severe storms will be possible. On Tuesday, we`ll see very similar conditions. Cloud cover may end up being less, and if it is, temperatures could be a couple of degrees warmer. Another round of high-based virga showers with gusty winds is also expected. The upper level high finally weakens and shifts southeast of the region Wednesday. Flow aloft becomes south-southwest, transporting monsoon moisture into the area. Moisture will increase slowly at first, but by Wednesday afternoon precipitable water values will climb to 120 to 160 percent of normal. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain during the afternoon and then spread northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible. For the past couple of days, models have advertised that a shortwave trough will track across Colorado Thursday afternoon/evening. Moisture continues to increase with precipitable water values climbing to 140 to 180 percent of normal. This should produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flooding. It will be much cooler on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across northeast Colorado. The upper level high is expected to stay over the southeast part of the country Friday and through next weekend. South-southwest flow is expected to persist over Colorado and monsoon moisture will continue to be pulled into the state. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 100 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 IR satellite imagery showing mid and high clouds overhead and upstream into the Great Basin. Expect mostly cloudy skies to persist through tonight, but ceilings will remain above 10,000 feet. The cloud cover will disrupt the typical diurnal wind pattern, but wind speeds are expected to be light. North to northwest winds are expected by 18-19Z. Another round of high- based virga showers will occur. Dry microbursts will be possible with gusts up to 40 knots. Wind shifts are very likely from the passing showers this afternoon and early evening. Once convective winds die off, southwest winds are expected to prevail overnight. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BM AVIATION...BM