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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 032110 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 310 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Waterfest! Widespread stratiform precipitation, quite unusual this time of the year, has been overspreading eastern Colorado throughout the day as a very healthy plume of Gulf moisture remains anchored under a blocking high to our north. Mostly slow and steady rain has been the name of the game, with isolated heavier showers embedded at times producing rainfall rates up to ~0.50"/hr. We are beginning to see some thinning of precipitation as the water vapor maxima moves northwest, and activity will continue to become more intermittent as we head into the evening. There`s next to zero instability currently so thunderstorms are unlikely (though, can`t rule out one or two later this afternoon/evening in the northeast plains as skies clear some). Moisture will stick around tonight. A weak closed low hovering over eastern Colorado/western Kansas will nudge NW overnight and bring enhanced easterly flow across the NE corner of the state. This should help reinvigorate shower activity late tonight into early Sunday morning, so it may be another wet start to the day for much of the urban corridor and plains. Some areas of fog can be expected as well early morning. Precipitable Water values will remain largely unchanged, or even slightly increase Sunday, peaking between 0.9-1.0". This is well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology and potentially in record territory for this time of year. Easterly upslope flow looks to be a little better defined tomorrow above 700mb, with better penetration of showers into the foothills and eastern mountain slopes. Flash flood risk for the Cameron Peak burn scar will thus be slightly higher on Sunday relative to today. Still, instability will remain very meager early in the day especially, and limit thunderstorm potential, buffering peak rainfall rates. Some CAMs do suggest sufficient instability creeping in later in the day to support a few thunderstorms. Localized flooding will remain a possibility with heavier showers/thunderstorms as steering level flow will still be on the weak side. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 259 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The blocking upper ridge over the northern central U.S. Sunday night, is progged to move little through Tuesday night. There will be weak upward vertical velocity for the CWA on the QG Omega fields through the periods. There is low level east and southeasterly upslope winds into the foothills through the periods. Precipitable water values stay in the 0.50 to 1.10 inch range, from west to east across the CWA, as well. Cape values are fairly low. It will be more of the same, plenty of rain with flooding issues possible, and little change of severe thunderstorms. Temperatures look to stay a tad below seasonal normals for the plains and foothills both Monday and Tuesday. For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday, models show the upper ridge to move a bit west later Wednesday into next weekend. Precipitable water values are progged a tad lower Friday and Saturday. There may be somewhat higher CAPE values later in the week with temperatures a bit warmer, so the thunderstorms should be a bit stronger. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 We`ll start with the easier aspect...the winds. Should see prevailing NE winds through early evening, followed by a period of variable and light winds in the evening before light northwesterly flow takes hold overnight. Widespread moderate rain is overspreading NE Colorado and will continue throughout the day, with CIGS primarily in the 030-060 range but with occasional lowering to 010-020 possible during heavier showers. With limited instability, believe TS potential will remain low today. Cannot completely rule out some VFR conditions at times later this evening or tonight, but even then expect periods of showers and lower CIGS. Visibility may lower to 3SM during the heaviest showers. Potential also increasing for very low stratus and/or fog early Sun AM for KDEN, may require including in future TAFS. Tomorrow, expect another active day with renewed showers and likely a higher chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 308 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Widespread light to moderate rain continues this afternoon with some thinning in coverage likely over the next few hours. There is little in the way of upslope flow, with winds along and east of the foothills mostly northerly. Instability is also close to nonexistent today. These factors combined are leading to a low threat of flash flooding for the burn scars in the high country. A few embedded heavier showers may still produce localized rainfall rates of 0.50"-0.70"/hr for the lower elevations and may result in minor flooding for poor drainage areas. Showers/isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage again late tonight and Sunday morning for the urban corridor and foothills. Rainfall rates may be more efficient tonight and Sunday, with greater penetration into the mountains and some potential for marginal instability by the afternoon. As a result, flash flood potential for the burn scars (particularly Cameron Peak) with trend upward, but confidence in reaching debris flow thresholds remains too low for any Flood Watches at this time. The flashing flooding potential will remain limited for the burn areas west of the divide and elevated for the burn areas east of the divide through much of next week. The chance of heavy rain is better from mid to late next week with stronger thunderstorms expected. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rodriguez LONG TERM....RPK AVIATION.....Rodriguez HYDROLOGY....Rodriguez/RPK NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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