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NHC Atlantic Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 030528 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located near the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Papin Tropical Storm Tropical Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023) ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Oct 3 the center of Philippe was located near 18.0, -62.4 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. Tropical Storm Philippe Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 39A Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 39 Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 227 WTNT22 KNHC 030244 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 62.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 62.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 62.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 63.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.3N 64.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N 64.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N 64.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.9N 64.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 36.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 62.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 39 Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 360 WTNT42 KNHC 030245 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 Philippe continues to be under the influence of significant westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear. The center, which is located on the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, recently passed over Barbuda. Most of the stronger convection is over the southern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the Leeward Islands should continue to experience strong winds and heavy rains even when the center of the storm begins to move north of those islands. The current intensity is kept at 45 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is still investigating the system. The cyclone has wobbled west-northwestward this evening and the current motion estimate is 300/6 kt. Over the next few days, Philippe should move along the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area. Most of the guidance model tracks have shifted even farther west, with the exception of the GFS deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts, which appear to be eastern outliers at this time. Based the new dynamical model consensus, the official forecast track is, again, shifted farther west from the previous one. Later in the forecast period, the spread in the guidance models increases. Notably,the GFS prediction shows that a mid-tropospheric trough over the northwestern Atlantic fails to capture the cyclone and take it northward into Atlantic Canada, but keeps Philippe moving slowly over the subtropical Atlantic at 5 days and even beyond. Little change in intensity is likely for the next couple of days while the storm remains in an environment of strong vertical wind shear. In 2 to 3 days, the global models suggest that Philippe could encounter a more favorable upper-tropospheric wind environment, with more anticyclonic and diffluent upper-level winds evolving over the system. Therefore, some strengthening is predicted in the latter half of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance, however. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda and Antigua tonight while Philippe passes just north of the area. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system. 2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered flash flooding across portions of the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, particularly between Barbuda and Dominica, into early Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.7N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 21.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 23.0N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 24.8N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 26.9N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 36.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39 Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 557 FONT12 KNHC 030245 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT JOHN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 33 26(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 18 8(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ST EUSTATIUS 34 31 5(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 40 2(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BARBUDA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 05:46:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 03:23:22 GMT
Atlantic Satellite Imagery

NHC Eastern North Pacific Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 030528 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms appear to be gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally northwestward through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. South of Central America: An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 03 Oct 2023 06:04:19 GMT
Pacific Satellite Imagery

Tropical weather data courtesy of ... Weather Underground Tropical Weather National Hurricane Center