Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011735
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilda, located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.
A well-defined low pressure system located about 375 miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a small area of
showers and thunderstorms mainly to the west of the center. The
low is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or
so while continuing to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico. Development is not likely by late
Monday once the system begins moving over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
A low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical Depression
Nine-E, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Regeneration of this system into a tropical
depression could occur over the next couple days if the low moves
away from the suppressing influence of Hurricane Hilda located less
than 500 miles to the east. The low is forecast to move slowly
northward or northwestward today and tonight, followed by a slow
west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane for
-
Summary for Hurricane Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
...HILDA IN NO HURRY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 1
the center of Hilda was located near 14.6, -120.2
with movement WNW at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 985 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Hilda
-
Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 011443
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021
...HILDA IN NO HURRY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 120.2W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
]]>
-
Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 011443
TCMEP3
HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.8W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
-
Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011450
TCDEP3
Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021
Hilda is a bit of a mess this morning with an elongated cloud
pattern from southeast to northwest and no signs of an eye in
conventional satellite imagery. However, microwave data near 1155
UTC from GPM still shows a well-defined low-level eye, although the
mid-level structure remains degraded from easterly shear. The
current wind speed is held at 75 kt, with this being an uncertain
estimate due to a large spread in the various intensity techniques.
Hilda is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt, with microwave
data helping to pinpoint the slower movement. The track forecast is
no piece of cake this morning with some interaction anticipated with
Invest 91E to the east in a day or two. While a mid-level ridge
persists to the northwest of Hilda, the southern periphery of the
ridge weakens due to 91E, causing Hilda to take a northwestward
turn in a couple of days. Hilda then should turn back toward the
west-northwest and west by midweek due to the ridge remaining in
place and 91E weakening. This is a tricky forecast because the
guidance is shifting to the right, which at some point will bring
Hilda over cold waters and closer to 91E, changing which
atmospheric layers will dominate steering the tropical cyclone. In
addition, interactions between two systems this close together
aren't easy to forecast in the best of circumstances, and
the latest guidance isn't in great agreement on the future strength
of 91E either. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast is more
conservative in shifting the track to the northeast than the
guidance (remaining on the westerly side of the track envelope),
then gradually comes close to the previous NHC forecast by the end
of the 5-day period. This forecast is obviously rather uncertain,
and a lot of generally better performing aids are to the northeast
of the latest NHC track.
The hurricane still has some chance to intensify during the next day
or so with moderate easterly shear and good inner-core structure.
Still, it is becoming more likely that Hilda is close to its peak
intensity with no signs of the easterly shear abating until the
hurricane moves over cool waters in a few days. Model guidance
generally is lower than the last cycle, and only a few show
strengthening. I'm going to keep the chance for slight strengthening
in the near term, then show a steady drop in intensity due to
persistent (or stronger) easterly shear and marginal water
temperatures. The new intensity forecast is 5 kt lower than the
last one at 36 hours and beyond and that could still be too high,
especially if the track shifts any farther to the north.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 14.6N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Blake
-
Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 011443
PWSEP3
HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 120W 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 125W 34 1 6( 7) 21(28) 10(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41)
15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20(30) 1(31) X(31)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
-
Hurricane Hilda Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 14:44:57 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 15:22:36 GMT
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