Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
840
ABNT20 KNHC 021138 CCA
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Corrected typo in paragraph for the eastern Caribbean Sea system
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Colin, located near the South Carolina coast and on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located inland near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.
Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development as the system moves west-northwestward during the next
few days across the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Storm Colin (AT3/AL032022)
...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...
As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 2
the center of Colin was located near 33.7, -79.0
with movement NE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Colin
-
Tropical Storm Colin Public Advisory Number 2
-
Tropical Storm Colin Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
000
WTNT23 KNHC 021514 CCA
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.3W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 79.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Storm Colin Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
128
WTNT43 KNHC 021449
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina
this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are
off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric
structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since
the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions
should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into
Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will
likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated
tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge
with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is
expected prior to dissipation.
The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast
during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.
2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the
North Carolina coast through Sunday.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 33.7N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
-
Tropical Storm Colin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
453
FONT13 KNHC 021448
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
RALEIGH NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ROCKY MT NC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 27(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CHERRY PT NC 34 26 11(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
NEW RIVER NC 34 19 24(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 26 19(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 52 4(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
SURF CITY NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
WILMINGTON NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FLORENCE SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Storm Colin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 14:49:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:23:15 GMT
Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Local Statement for Wilmington, NC
|
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021110
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 2 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Tropical Storm Bonnie currently located inland near the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. The system is forecast to complete
crossing Central America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a
tropical cyclone, later today.
Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms have largely dissipated in association
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system is not expected as it is already over cool waters
and in a dry environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Tropical
-
Summary for Tropical Storm Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)
...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...
As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 2
the center of Bonnie was located near 11.2, -86.4
with movement W at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Bonnie
-
Tropical Storm Bonnie Public Advisory Number 20
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 021553 CCA
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH
NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...
Corrected Advisory Number
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 86.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning on the Caribbean coast. The government of Costa Rica has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next few hours.
Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to move away
from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico for the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, after
which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
]]>
-
Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 20
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 021457 CCA
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 85.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 86.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 02/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI
-
Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 20
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
686
WTPZ44 KNHC 021501 CCA
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
Corrected advisory number
Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes
indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern
Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to
cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The
center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern
Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several
hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center
of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and
satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this
advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or
so.
Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge
located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to
track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to
the coast of Central America and Mexico. Track guidance is in good
agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast
is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast.
Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as
any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.
While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening
is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a
relatively shallow depth. For this reason, intensification is
forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches
warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of
intensification is forecast to increase. Similar to the previous
forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope.
In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific,
product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 11.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hogsett
-
Tropical Storm Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 41(50) 1(51)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 1(51) X(51)
15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17)
15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15)
P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
HUATULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
10N 95W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 95W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
P SAN JOSE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
10N 90W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT
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Tropical Storm Bonnie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:43:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:43:35 GMT
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