Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022341
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands. Further development of the wave
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph,
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Orlene, which is approaching Las Islas Marias near southwestern
Mexico.
South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two as the system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during
the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward after midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Hurricane for
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Summary for Hurricane Orlene (EP1/EP162022)
...ORLENE NEARLY OVER ISLAS MARIAS... ...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY ONGOING...
As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 2
the center of Orlene was located near 21.4, -106.5
with movement N at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Orlene
-
Hurricane Orlene Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
076
WTPZ31 KNHC 030247
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
...ORLENE NEARLY OVER ISLAS MARIAS...
...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY ONGOING...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 106.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.5 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will is forecast
to move over Las Islas Marias tonight, and reach the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so,
but Orlene is forecast to be remain a hurricane when it reaches
southwestern Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene
moves onshore, and the system should dissipated on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
overnight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
along the coast of mainland Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area tonight into early Monday.
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:
* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.
These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
]]>
-
Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2022
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 030246
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 106.7W
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.9N 106.2W...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 106.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
-
Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
826
WTPZ41 KNHC 030252
TCDEP1
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Orlene appears to be slowly weakening this evening. 1-minute GOES-17
IR satellite imagery shows persistent bursting cloud tops below -80
C in the northern semicircle of the hurricane, likely still
associated with its eyewall. A 0116 UTC F-17 SSMIS microwave pass
also showed an eyewall fragment remains in connection to these very
cold cloud tops, though comparing microwave with geostationary
satellite suggests the hurricane is starting to become more tilted.
There are also subtle hints that upper-level westerly flow is
beginning to undercut the cirrus on the western side of the
convective plume. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were CI
5.5/102-kt from TAFB and CI 5.0/90-kt from SAB. However, the Final
T-numbers have been slowly decreasing and the initial intensity was
set to 90 kt for this advisory.
The intensity forecast is somewhat tricky for Orlene over the next
day or so. Deep-layer (200-850 mb) southwesterly vertical wind shear
is steadily increasing over Orlene and is now over 20-kt in both the
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance. This shear is expected
to increase to 30-kt in the next 12-24 h, and will likely play a
role in helping to import drier mid-level air into the core of the
small hurricane. However, during this period, Orlene will also be
traversing over very warm sea-surface temperatures, above 30 degrees
Celsius, which could help the deep convection to remain quite
vigorous, especially during the diurnal max period. Thus, while
weakening appears likely, the rate of weakening has a higher than
normal uncertainty. The intensity guidance this cycle has a faster
rate of weakening, and the latest NHC intensity forecast was
shifted in that direction, though not quite as dramatic. Orlene is
still forecast to be a hurricane as it makes landfall in mainland
Mexico sometime on Monday. After landfall, the small system should
quickly weaken over the higher terrain of Mexico, with dissipation
likely by 48 hours.
The hurricane appears to be moving a little more east of due north
tonight, with the estimated motion at 010/7 kt. Orlene should
continue this general heading for the next 12 to 24 hours, remaining
steered by a mid-level ridge to its east, until the hurricane makes
landfall at some point on Monday along the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The track guidance this cycle has made a shift to the west,
likely due to some of the guidance (GFS, HWRF) showing the tropical
cyclone de-coupling from the deep convection in the immediate
short-term. Since that process has not yet occurred, the track
forecast this cycle was only shifted slightly west of the prior
track, though is notably slower with the speed of Orlene shortly
after the system makes landfall.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are likely ongoing near Islas Marias
tonight. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of
west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are
expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning
overnight. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in
the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the
warning area in regions of onshore winds.
3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 22.1N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 22.9N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
36H 04/1200Z 23.6N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
-
Hurricane Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2022
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 030254
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
MAZATLAN 34 45 43(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
MAZATLAN 50 2 31(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
MAZATLAN 64 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAN BLAS 34 32 4(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
-
Hurricane Orlene Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2022 02:52:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2022 03:22:41 GMT
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